Completion Of A Full Course Of Primary Schooling Among All Children Everywhere By 2015: A Case Of Sub-Saharan Africa
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Date
2015
Authors
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Contemporary Issues in Education Research (CIER),
Abstract
Achieving the United Nations Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) remains a major
challenge, particularly in developing countries. Specifically, achieving the target of completing a
full course of primary schooling among all children, which is goal two, is a major challenge for
Sub-Saharan Africa. Though literature consensually suggests that the goal will not be achieved by
the 2015 target date, no estimates are provided to support these claims. This study seeks to
envisage the situation in Sub-Saharan Africa by the target date using an Auto-Regressive
Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The investigation is based on data sourced from the
World Bank publication of education indicators for the period 1970–2010. The data, comprising
41 observations, represent the total number of new entrants in the last grade of primary
education, regardless of age, expressed as a percentage of the total population of the theoretical
entrance age to the last grade of primary education. Overall, an upward trend of completion
estimates presented in the results shows that progress has been made in this regard. The success
attained for the region following the adoption of the MDGs in 2000 demonstrates that the goal
can be achieved. The sub-optimal predictions of the situation obtained in the results nevertheless
indicate that the achievement certainly will not be realized by the 2015 target date
Description
Keywords
Millennium Development Goals, MDG, Primary Education Completion Rates, Gross Intake Rate to the Last Grade of Primary
Citation
Wamala, R. (2013). Completion of a full course of primary schooling among all children everywhere by 2015: a case of Sub-Saharan Africa. Contemporary Issues in Education Research (CIER), 6(1), 147-154.