Counting the cost of drought induced productivity losses in an agro-based economy: The case of Uganda
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Date
2016
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Economic Research Southern Africa (ERSA)
Abstract
Climate variability can affect economies directly through its impact
on agricultural output, and indirectly, through its effect on the activi-
ties of down-stream industries and household welfare. This paper uses a
Computable General Equilibrium model with a disaggregated agricultural
sector to analyse the impact of a drought on the Ugandan economy. The
losses were assessed with respect to GDP, agricultural output, employ-
ment, the trade balance and household consumption. The drought effects
were shown to vary by sector. The fall in employment within the agricul-
tural industries was less compared to the output losses. At a macro level,
exports declined, while at a household level, the terms of trade gains mit-
igated part of the potential welfare losses thereby reducing consumption,
but to a lesser degree. The findings indicate that a drought can cause
substantial losses to the economy. The need for targeted interventions to
mitigate such drought impacts is therefore critical.
Description
Keywords
Computable general equlibrium modelling, Drought, Eco- nomic activity
Citation
Kilimani, N., van Heerden, J., Bohlmann, H., & Roos, L. (2016). Counting the cost of drought induced productivity losses in an agro-based economy: The case of Uganda (No. 201649).