Five decades of globalisation and growth: a cross-country causal analysis of low-income economies

Abstract

Comprehending the dynamic between globalisation and economic growth in low-income nations is vital to understanding how they navigate growth trajectories whilst addressing global concerns. This study examined the nexus between globalisation and its financial, social, and political facets in relation to growth in fourteen low-income nations. The analysis spanned over five decades and the Wavelet Coherence and Granger Causality methodologies. The findings revealed a bidirectional causal relationship between globalisation and growth in Rwanda, unidirectional causal flows in Burundi, Sierra Leone, Sudan, and Uganda. A bidirectional relationship between economic integration and growth was identified in Burkina Faso. Possible policy actions aligned with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals have been developed, focusing on the country-specific dynamics of each nation. These policy recommendations comprise introducing incentives for foreign investments in Rwanda and liberalising trade in Burkina Faso to reinforce economic globalisation. The study also recommends the expansion of digital infrastructure and global educational avenues in Burundi and Uganda to strengthen social integration, and the reinforcement of governance mechanisms in Chad and Togo to encourage political integration. This study contributes to the globalisation-growth literature by offering time-sensitive insights into the growth trajectories of low-income economies.