Mathematical Modelling of the Transmission Dynamics of Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia Reveals Minimal Target Profiles for Improved Vaccines and Diagnostic Assays
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Date
2015
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
PLoS One
Abstract
Contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) is a cattle disease that has hampered the development
of the livestock sector in sub-Saharan Africa. Currently, vaccination with a live
vaccine strain is its recommended control measure although unofficial antimicrobial use is
widely practiced. Here, modelling techniques are used to assess the potential impact of
early elimination of infected cattle via accurate diagnosis on CBPP dynamics. A herd-level
stochastic epidemiological model explicitly incorporating test sensitivity and specificity is developed.
Interventions by annual vaccination, annual testing and elimination and a combination
of both are implemented in a stepwise manner and their effectiveness compared by
running 1000 simulations per intervention over ten years. The model predicts that among
the simulated interventions, the ones likely to eliminate the disease from an isolated herd all
involved annual vaccination of more than 75% of the animals with a vaccine that protects for
at least 18 months combined with annual testing (and elimination of positive reactors) of
75% of the animals every six months after vaccination. The highest probability of disease
elimination was 97.5%and this could occur within a median of 2.3 years. Generally, our
model predicts that regular testing and elimination of positive reactors using improved tests
will play a significant role in minimizing CBPP burden especially in the current situation
where improved vaccines are yet to be developed.
Description
Keywords
Mathematical Modelling, Transmission Dynamics, Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia, Vaccines
Citation
Ssematimba A, Jores J, Mariner JC (2015) Mathematical Modelling of the Transmission Dynamics of Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia Reveals Minimal Target Profiles for Improved Vaccines and Diagnostic Assays. PLoS ONE 10(2): e0116730. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0116730