Logistic Pipe Failure Prediction Models for an Urban Water Distribution Network in the Developing World: a case study of Kampala water, Uganda

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dc.contributor.authorAuma, Rose
dc.contributor.authorMusaazi, Isaac G.
dc.contributor.authorTumutungire, Martin D.
dc.contributor.authorSempewo, Jotham Ivan
dc.date.accessioned2023-07-10T15:16:01Z
dc.date.available2023-07-10T15:16:01Z
dc.date.issued2022
dc.description.abstractStatistical models can be used as proactive approaches to pipe failure management for the satisfactory and efficient functionality of a water distribution network (WDN). The study aimed to develop two logistic regression models using historical data and evaluated them based on prediction accuracy, receiver operator characteristics (ROC), and area under the curve (AUC). Pipe sizes ranging from 150 mm to 350 mm in the WDN were adequate to prevent pipe failure. However, a 250 mm pipe diameter had the lowest failure probability. Old pipes had a lower failure probability than new pipes. Although it was evident that the installation design of water pipes is changing from steel to unplasticized polyvinyl chloride (uPVC), steel pipes had a lower failure probability than uPVC at the same depth from the soil surface. Pipes buried in gravel with a small diameter had a lower failure probability than those in clay of a bigger diameter. With a median pipe age of 8 years in the WDN and greater class weight on pipe failures, the binomial logistic regression model had better performance (accuracy – 96.9%, AUC – 0.996) than the multinomial logistic model (accuracy – 90.9%, AUC – 0.992), representing reliable model predictions. The models can be used to modify data collection protocols to better identify potential water pipes that require maintenance or replacement.en_US
dc.identifier.citationAuma, R., Musaazi, I. G., Tumutungire, M. D., & Sempewo, J. I. (2022). Logistic pipe failure prediction models for an urban water distribution network in the developing world: a case study of Kampala water, Uganda. Water Practice & Technology, wpt2022159.https://doi.org/10.2166/wpt.2022.159en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://nru.uncst.go.ug/handle/123456789/9050
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherWater Practice & Technologyen_US
dc.subjectFailure frequencyen_US
dc.subjectLogistic regressionen_US
dc.subjectModelen_US
dc.subjectWater mains replacementen_US
dc.subjectWater distributionen_US
dc.subjectPredictionen_US
dc.titleLogistic Pipe Failure Prediction Models for an Urban Water Distribution Network in the Developing World: a case study of Kampala water, Ugandaen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
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