Simulated Flock-Level Shedding Characteristics of Turkeys in Ten Thousand Bird Houses Infected with H7 Low Pathogenicity Avian Influenza Virus Strains

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dc.contributor.authorBonney, Peter J.
dc.contributor.authorMalladi, Sasidhar
dc.contributor.authorSsematimba, Amos
dc.contributor.authorCharles, Kaitlyn M. St.
dc.contributor.authorWalz, Emily
dc.contributor.authorCulhane, Marie R.
dc.contributor.authorHalvorson, David A.
dc.contributor.authorCardona, Carol J.
dc.date.accessioned2023-01-06T18:35:06Z
dc.date.available2023-01-06T18:35:06Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.description.abstractpathogenicity avian influenza virus (LPAIV) over time can help inform the type and timing of activities performed in response to a confirmed LPAIV-positive premises. To this end, we developed a mathematical model which allows us to estimate viral shedding by 10,000 turkey toms raised in commercial turkey production in the United States, and infected by H7 LPAIV strains. We simulated the amount of virus shed orally and from the cloaca over time, as well as the amount of virus in manure. In addition, we simulated the threshold cycle value (Ct) of pooled oropharyngeal swabs from birds in the infected flock tested by real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction. The simulation model predicted that little to no shedding would occur once the highest threshold of seroconversion was reached. Substantial amounts of virus in manure (median 1.5 108 and 5.8 109; 50% egg infectious dose) were predicted at the peak. Lastly, the model results suggested that higher Ct values, indicating less viral shedding, are more likely to be observed later in the infection process as the flock approaches recovery.en_US
dc.identifier.citationBonney, P.J.; Malladi, S.; Ssematimba, A.; St. Charles, K.M.; Walz, E.; Culhane, M.R.; Halvorson, D.A.; Cardona, C.J. Simulated Flock-Level Shedding Characteristics of Turkeys in Ten Thousand Bird Houses Infected with H7 Low Pathogenicity Avian Influenza Virus Strains. Viruses 2021, 13, 2509. https://doi.org/10.3390/v13122509en_US
dc.identifier.issnhttps://doi.org/10.3390/v13122509
dc.identifier.urihttps://nru.uncst.go.ug/handle/123456789/6832
dc.subjectAvian influenzaen_US
dc.subjectEpidemiologyen_US
dc.subjectMathematical modelingen_US
dc.subjectOutbreak managementen_US
dc.subjectpoultryen_US
dc.titleSimulated Flock-Level Shedding Characteristics of Turkeys in Ten Thousand Bird Houses Infected with H7 Low Pathogenicity Avian Influenza Virus Strainsen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
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