Simulated Flock-Level Shedding Characteristics of Turkeys in Ten Thousand Bird Houses Infected with H7 Low Pathogenicity Avian Influenza Virus Strains
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Date
2021
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Abstract
pathogenicity avian influenza virus (LPAIV) over time can help inform the type and timing of
activities performed in response to a confirmed LPAIV-positive premises. To this end, we developed
a mathematical model which allows us to estimate viral shedding by 10,000 turkey toms raised in
commercial turkey production in the United States, and infected by H7 LPAIV strains. We simulated
the amount of virus shed orally and from the cloaca over time, as well as the amount of virus in
manure. In addition, we simulated the threshold cycle value (Ct) of pooled oropharyngeal swabs
from birds in the infected flock tested by real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction.
The simulation model predicted that little to no shedding would occur once the highest threshold of
seroconversion was reached. Substantial amounts of virus in manure (median 1.5 108 and 5.8 109;
50% egg infectious dose) were predicted at the peak. Lastly, the model results suggested that higher
Ct values, indicating less viral shedding, are more likely to be observed later in the infection process
as the flock approaches recovery.
Description
Keywords
Avian influenza, Epidemiology, Mathematical modeling, Outbreak management, poultry
Citation
Bonney, P.J.; Malladi, S.; Ssematimba, A.; St. Charles, K.M.; Walz, E.; Culhane, M.R.; Halvorson, D.A.; Cardona, C.J. Simulated Flock-Level Shedding Characteristics of Turkeys in Ten Thousand Bird Houses Infected with H7 Low Pathogenicity Avian Influenza Virus Strains. Viruses 2021, 13, 2509. https://doi.org/10.3390/v13122509