Force‑of‑infection of Taenia solium porcine cysticercosis: a modelling analysis to assess global incidence and prevalence trends
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Date
2020
Authors
Dixon, Matthew A.
Winskill, Peter
Harrison, Wendy E.
Whittaker, Charles
Schmidt, Veronika
Sarti, Elsa
Bawm, Saw
Dione, Michel M.
Thomas, Lian F.
Walker, Martin
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Scientific reports
Abstract
The World Health Organization (WHO) called, in 2012, for a validated strategy towards Taenia solium
taeniasis/cysticercosis control and elimination. Estimating pig force-of-infection (FoI, the average
rate at which susceptible pigs become infected) across geographical settings will help understand
local epidemiology and inform effective intervention design. Porcine cysticercosis (PCC) ageprevalence
data (from 15 studies in Latin America, Africa and Asia) were identified through systematic
review. Catalytic models were fitted to the data using Bayesian methods, incorporating uncertainty
in diagnostic performance, to estimate rates of antibody seroconversion, viable metacestode
acquisition, and seroreversion/infection loss. There was evidence of antibody seroreversion across
5 studies, and of infection loss in 6 studies measured by antigen or necropsy, indicating transient
serological responses and natural resolution of infection. Concerted efforts should be made to collect
robust data using improved diagnostics to better understand geographical heterogeneities in T. solium
transmission to support post-2020 WHO targets.
Description
Keywords
Taenia solium porcine cysticercosis, Modelling analysis, Global incidence, Prevalence trends
Citation
Dixon, M. A., Winskill, P., Harrison, W. E., Whittaker, C., Schmidt, V., Sarti, E., ... & Basáñez, M. G. (2020). Force-of-infection of Taenia solium porcine cysticercosis: a modelling analysis to assess global incidence and prevalence trends. Scientific reports, 10(1), 1-14.Dixon, M. A., Winskill, P., Harrison, W. E., Whittaker, C., Schmidt, V., Sarti, E., ... & Basáñez, M. G. (2020). Force-of-infection of Taenia solium porcine cysticercosis: a modelling analysis to assess global incidence and prevalence trends. Scientific reports, 10(1), 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-74007-x