Past, Present and Future Climate Trends Under Varied Representative Concentration Pathways for a Sub-Humid Region in Uganda

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dc.contributor.authorEgeru, Anthony
dc.contributor.authorBarasa, Bernard
dc.contributor.authorNampijja, Josephine
dc.contributor.authorSiya, Aggrey
dc.contributor.authorTenywa Makooma, Moses
dc.contributor.authorMajaliwa, Mwanjalolo Gilbert Jackson
dc.date.accessioned2022-12-04T11:35:01Z
dc.date.available2022-12-04T11:35:01Z
dc.date.issued2019
dc.description.abstractLong-term trend analysis at local scale for rainfall and temperature is critical for detecting climate change patterns. This study analysed historical (1980–2009), near future (2010–2039), mid- (1940–2069) and end-century (2070–2099) rainfall and temperature over Karamoja sub-region. The Modern Era-Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) daily climate data provided by the Agricultural Model Inter-comparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) was used. The AgMIP delta method analysis protocol was used for an ensemble of 20 models under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). Historical mean rainfall was 920.1 118.9 mm and minimum, maximum and mean temperature were 16.8 0.5 C, 30.6 0.4 C and 32.0 0.7 C, respectively. Minimum temperature over the historical period significantly rose between 2000 and 2008. Near future rainfall varied by scenario with 1012.9 146.3 mm and 997.5 144.7 mm for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively; with a sharp rise predicted in 2017. In the mid-century, mean annual rainfall will be 1084.7 137.4 mm and 1205.5 164.9 mm under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively. The districts of Kaabong and Kotido are projected to experience low rainfall total under RCP4.5 (mid-century) and RCP8.5 (end-century). The minimum temperature is projected to increase by 1.8 C (RCP4.5) and 2.1 C (RCP8.5) in mid-century, and by 2.2 C (RCP4.5) and 4.0 C (RCP8.5) in end-century.en_US
dc.identifier.citationEgeru, A., Barasa, B., Nampijja, J., Siya, A., Makooma, MT, & Majaliwa, MGJ (2019). Past, present and future climate trends under varied representative concentration pathways for a sub-humid region in Uganda. Climate , 7 (3), 35. doi:10.3390/cli7030035en_US
dc.identifier.other10.3390/cli7030035
dc.identifier.urihttps://nru.uncst.go.ug/handle/123456789/5787
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherClimateen_US
dc.subjectClimate changeen_US
dc.subjectTrends analysisen_US
dc.subjectTemperature and precipitationsen_US
dc.subjectVariabilityen_US
dc.titlePast, Present and Future Climate Trends Under Varied Representative Concentration Pathways for a Sub-Humid Region in Ugandaen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
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