Past, Present and Future Climate Trends Under Varied Representative Concentration Pathways for a Sub-Humid Region in Uganda
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Date
2019
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Climate
Abstract
Long-term trend analysis at local scale for rainfall and temperature is critical for detecting
climate change patterns. This study analysed historical (1980–2009), near future (2010–2039),
mid- (1940–2069) and end-century (2070–2099) rainfall and temperature over Karamoja sub-region.
The Modern Era-Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) daily climate
data provided by the Agricultural Model Inter-comparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP)
was used. The AgMIP delta method analysis protocol was used for an ensemble of 20 models
under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). Historical mean rainfall was
920.1 118.9 mm and minimum, maximum and mean temperature were 16.8 0.5 C, 30.6 0.4 C
and 32.0 0.7 C, respectively. Minimum temperature over the historical period significantly
rose between 2000 and 2008. Near future rainfall varied by scenario with 1012.9 146.3 mm and
997.5 144.7 mm for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively; with a sharp rise predicted in 2017. In the
mid-century, mean annual rainfall will be 1084.7 137.4 mm and 1205.5 164.9 mm under RCP4.5
and RCP8.5 respectively. The districts of Kaabong and Kotido are projected to experience low rainfall
total under RCP4.5 (mid-century) and RCP8.5 (end-century). The minimum temperature is projected
to increase by 1.8 C (RCP4.5) and 2.1 C (RCP8.5) in mid-century, and by 2.2 C (RCP4.5) and 4.0 C
(RCP8.5) in end-century.
Description
Keywords
Climate change, Trends analysis, Temperature and precipitations, Variability
Citation
Egeru, A., Barasa, B., Nampijja, J., Siya, A., Makooma, MT, & Majaliwa, MGJ (2019). Past, present and future climate trends under varied representative concentration pathways for a sub-humid region in Uganda. Climate , 7 (3), 35. doi:10.3390/cli7030035