Projected water resource dynamics in the sub-humid Upper Nile Water Management Zone of Uganda, East Africa

Abstract

Projected scenarios in land, population, resource use, land use/cover, climate and urbanization over the Nile Basin reveal an acceleration and dynamical transitions in nearto- medium term. These changes have a bearing on water resource dynamics including the acceleration of the long-held yet hitherto managed conflicts over the Nile waters. This paper presents a projection of water resource dynamics in the River Nile using the Upper Nile Water Management Zone (UNWMZ) of Uganda as a reference site. Results showed variability in sub-catchment discharge into the Upper Water Management Zone. By 2040, the catchment’s water resources base will decrease by 12.6% whilst gross and net demand will increase. The projected decrease in the water discharge in the catchment can be attributed to the anticipated increase in temperatures, a decrease in rainfall and expected increase in human population in the sub-region. It is recommended that routine monitoring of catchment discharge is enhanced and intensified. Further, exploration into the technical and scientific mechanisms that will facilitate effective adaptation to increased water demand in the catchment should be undertaken in response to the projected increase in gross and net water demand in the catchment.