Ecosystem modelling of data-limited fisheries: How reliable are Ecopath with Ecosim models without historical time series fitting?
Loading...
Date
2020
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Journal of Great Lakes Research
Abstract
Long-term time series data are not available for many of the African Great Lakes. This precludes fitting
ecosystem model parameters to time series data, and we do not know how reliable non-fitted models
are compared to fitted ones in terms of predicting consequences of alternative management strategies.
To investigate this, we generate a historical Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) model for Lake Victoria (East
Africa), fitted to time series data (1980–2015), and a present-day EwE model (representing average conditions
for the period 2010–2015). We do scenario simulations using the present-day model and the comparable
2015 end-state of the historical model, and test if incorporating information on short-term
biomass trends by adjusting biomass accumulation (BA) parameter in the present-day model increases
its reliability. We find that there are differences in model predictions, but those differences can be lessened
by adjusting BA terms in the present-day model to reflect biomass trends from short-term empirical
data. We also compare the models with and without fitted vulnerability parameters. The models generally
give comparable results for the dominant commercial fisheries at low fishing pressure; when fishing
mortality is increased, the models give variable predictions. This study adds to the current understanding
of the limitations of EwE models that are not challenged to reproduce long-term historical fishery
responses to perturbations. We conclude that for the less productive groups, as well as groups that suffer
heavy mortality (either due to predation or fisheries), it may be appropriate to use negative BA as first
draft assumption in present-day models.
Description
Keywords
Ecopath with Ecosim, Lake Victoria Model comparison Model fitting, Ecosystem-based management
Citation
Natugonza, V., Ainsworth, C., Sturludóttir, E., Musinguzi, L., Ogutu-Ohwayo, R., Tomasson, T., ... & Stefansson, G. (2020). Ecosystem modelling of data-limited fisheries: How reliable are Ecopath with Ecosim models without historical time series fitting?. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 46(2), 414-428.