Observed and Future Precipitation and Evapotranspiration in Water Management Zones of Uganda: CMIP6 Projections
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Date
2021
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Atmosphere
Abstract
We used CMIP6 GCMs to quantify climate change impacts on precipitation and potential
evapotranspiration (PET) across water management zones (WMZs) in Uganda. Future changes are
assessed based on four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios including SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5,
SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 over the periods 2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2061–2080, and 2081–2100. Both
precipitation and PET are generally projected to increase across all the WMZs. Annual PET in the
2030s, 2050s, 2070s, 2090s will increase in the ranges 1.1–4.0%, 4.8–7.9%, 5.1–11.8%, and 5.3–17.1%,
respectively. For the respective periods, annual precipitation will increase in the ranges 4.0–7.8%,
7.8–12.5%, 7.9–19.9%, and 6.9–26.3%. The lower and upper limits of these change ranges for both
precipitation and PET are, respectively, derived under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Climate
change will impact on PET or precipitation disproportionately across the WMZs. While the eastern
WMZ (Kyoga) will experience the largest projected precipitation increase especially towards the end
of the century, the southern WMZ (Victoria) exhibited the largest PET increase. Our findings are
relevant for understanding hydrological impacts of climate change across Uganda, in the background
of global warming. Thus, the water sector should devise and implement adaptation measures to
impede future socioeconomic and environmental crises in the country.
Description
Keywords
Climate change, CMIP6 projections, Precipitation, Evapotranspiration, Water management zones, Uganda
Citation
Onyutha, C.; Asiimwe, A.; Ayugi, B.; Ngoma, H.; Ongoma, V.; Tabari, H. Observed and Future Precipitation and Evapotranspiration in Water Management Zones of Uganda: CMIP6 Projections. Atmosphere 2021, 12, 887. https:// doi.org/10.3390/atmos12070887