Decadal Analysis of River Flow Extremes Using Quantile-Based Approaches
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Date
2017
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
er Resources Management
Abstract
Next to the traditional analysis of trends in time series of hydro-climatological
variables, analysis of decadal oscillations in these variables is of particular importance
for the risk assessment of hydro-climatological disasters and risk-based decision-making.
Conventional parametric and nonparametric tests, however, need implementing a set of
background assumptions related to serial structure and statistical distribution of data.
They neither focus on the extreme events and their probability of occurrence. In order to
get rid of these limitations, we suggest a modified version of the Sen Method (SM),
combined with the Quantile Perturbation Method (QPM) for examining temporal variation
of extreme hydrological events. The developed method is tested for decadal analysis
of monthly and annual river flows at 10 hydrometric stations in the Qazvin plain in Iran.
The results show oscillatory patterns in extreme river flow quantiles, with a positive
anomaly during the 1990s and a negative one during the 2000s. It is also shown that the
concurrent use of the two methods allows to set a complete picture on the temporal
changes in high and low extremes in historical river flow observations in different
seasons.
Description
Keywords
River flow time series, Trend analysis, Extreme quantiles, Periodic fluctuations
Citation
Tabari, H., Taye, M. T., Onyutha, C., & Willems, P. (2017). Decadal analysis of river flow extremes using quantile-based approaches. Water Resources Management, 31(11), 3371-3387. DOI 10.1007/s11269-017-1673-y