Browsing by Author "Welburn, Susan C."

Now showing 1 - 4 of 4
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    Bayesian Geostatistical Analysis and Prediction of Rhodesian Human African Trypanosomiasis
    (PLoS, 2010) Wardrop, Nicola A.; Atkinson, Peter M.; Gething, Peter W.; Fèvre, Eric M.; Picozzi, Kim; Kakembo, Abbas S. L.; Welburn, Susan C.
    The persistent spread of Rhodesian human African trypanosomiasis (HAT) in Uganda in recent years has increased concerns of a potential overlap with the Gambian form of the disease. Recent research has aimed to increase the evidence base for targeting control measures by focusing on the environmental and climatic factors that control the spatial distribution of the disease. One recent study used simple logistic regression methods to explore the relationship between prevalence of Rhodesian HAT and several social, environmental and climatic variables in two of the most recently affected districts of Uganda, and suggested the disease had spread into the study area due to the movement of infected, untreated livestock. Here we extend this study to account for spatial autocorrelation, incorporate uncertainty in input data and model parameters and undertake predictive mapping for risk of high HAT prevalence in future. Using a spatial analysis in which a generalised linear geostatistical model is used in a Bayesian framework to account explicitly for spatial autocorrelation and incorporate uncertainty in input data and model parameters we are able to demonstrate a more rigorous analytical approach, potentially resulting in more accurate parameter and significance estimates and increased predictive accuracy, thereby allowing an assessment of the validity of the livestock movement hypothesis given more robust parameter estimation and appropriate assessment of covariate effects. Analysis strongly supports the theory that Rhodesian HAT was imported to the study area via the movement of untreated, infected livestock from endemic areas. The confounding effect of health care accessibility on the spatial distribution of Rhodesian HAT and the linkages between the disease’s distribution and minimum land surface temperature have also been confirmed via the application of these methods. Predictive mapping indicates an increased risk of high HAT prevalence in the future in areas surrounding livestock markets, demonstrating the importance of livestock trading for continuing disease spread. Adherence to government policy to treat livestock at the point of sale is essential to prevent the spread of sleeping sickness in Uganda.
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    LAMP for Human African Trypanosomiasis: A Comparative Study of Detection Formats
    (PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 2010) Wastling, Sally L.; Picozzi, Kim; Kakembo, Abbas S. L.; Welburn, Susan C.
    Loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) is at the forefront of the search for innovative diagnostics for human African trypanosomiasis (HAT). Several simple endpoint detection methods have been developed for LAMP and here we compare four of these: (i) visualization of turbidity; (ii) addition of hydroxynaphthol blue before incubation; (iii) addition of calcein with MnCl2 before incubation and (iv) addition of Quant-iT PicoGreen after incubation. These four methods were applied to four LAMP assays for the detection of human African trypanosomiasis, including two Trypanozoon specific and two Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense specific reactions using DNA extracted from cryo-preserved procyclic form T. b. rhodesiense. A multi-observer study was performed to assess inter-observer reliability of two of these methods: hydroxynapthol blue and calcein with MnCl2, using DNA prepared from blood samples stored on Whatman FTA cards. Results showed that hydroxynaphthol blue was the best of the compared methods for easy, inexpensive, accurate and reliable interpretation of LAMP assays for HAT. Hydroxynapthol blue generates a violet to sky blue colour change that was easy to see and was consistently interpreted by independent observers. Visible turbidity detection is not possible for all currently available HAT LAMP reactions; Quant-iT PicoGreen is expensive and addition of calcein with MnCl2 adversely affects reaction sensitivity and was unpopular with several observers.
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    Modelling the Use of Insecticide-Treated Cattle to Control Tsetse and Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense in a Multi-host Population
    (Bulletin of Mathematical biology, 2014) Kajunguri, Damian; Hargrove, John W.; Ouifki, Rachid; Mugisha, J.Y.T.; Coleman, Paul G.; Welburn, Susan C.
    We present a mathematical model for the transmission of Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense by tsetse vectors to a multi-host population. To control tsetse and T. b. rhodesiense, a proportion, ψ, of cattle (one of the hosts considered in the model) is taken to be kept on treatment with insecticides. Analytical expressions are obtained for the basic reproduction number, R0n in the absence, and RT 0n in the presence of insecticide-treated cattle (ITC). Stability analysis of the disease-free equilibrium was carried out for the case when there is one vertebrate host untreated with insecticide. By considering three vertebrate hosts (cattle, humans and wildlife) the sensitivity analysis was carried out on the basic reproduction number (RT 03) in the absence and presence of ITC. The results show that RT 03 is more sensitive to changes in the tsetse mortality. The model is then used to study the control of tsetse and T. b. rhodesiense in humans through application insecticides to cattle either over the whole-body or to restricted areas of the body known to be favoured tsetse feeding sites. Numerical results show that while both ITC strategies result in decreases in tsetse density and in the incidence of T. b. rhodesiense in humans, the restricted application technique results
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    Spatial Predictions of Rhodesian Human African Trypanosomiasis (Sleeping Sickness) Prevalence in Kaberamaido and Dokolo, Two Newly Affected Districts of Uganda
    (PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 2009) Batchelor, Nicola A.; Atkinson, Peter M.; Gething, Peter W.; Picozzi, Kim; Fe`vre, Eric M.; Kakembo, Abbas S. L.; Welburn, Susan C.
    The continued northwards spread of Rhodesian sleeping sickness or Human African Trypanosomiasis (HAT) within Uganda is raising concerns of overlap with the Gambian form of the disease. Disease convergence would result in compromised diagnosis and treatment for HAT. Spatial determinants for HAT are poorly understood across small areas. This study examines the relationships between Rhodesian HAT and several environmental, climatic and social factors in two newly affected districts, Kaberamaido and Dokolo. A one-step logistic regression analysis of HAT prevalence and a two-step logistic regression method permitted separate analysis of both HAT occurrence and HAT prevalence. Both the occurrence and prevalence of HAT were negatively correlated with distance to the closest livestock market in all models. The significance of distance to the closest livestock market strongly indicates that HAT may have been introduced to this previously unaffected area via the movement of infected, untreated livestock from endemic areas. This illustrates the importance of the animal reservoir in disease transmission, and highlights the need for trypanosomiasis control in livestock and the stringent implementation of regulations requiring the treatment of cattle prior to sale at livestock markets to prevent any further spread of Rhodesian HAT within Uganda.