Browsing by Author "Wamala, Robert"
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Item A Multilevel Decomposition of Time Variation in the Risks of Infant Mortality in Rural Uganda: UDHS 1995–2016(East African Journal of Health and Science, 2023) Odur, Benard; Nansubuga, Elizabeth; Wamala, Robert; Atuhaire, LeonardThe study assessed the contribution of maternal, child, paternal, household, proximate, and community-level factors to infant mortality risk time variation in rural Uganda between 1995 and 2016. Five rounds of Uganda Demographic and Health Survey data sets were used, and a multilevel mixed-effect logistic regression model was applied to decompose the contribution of different factors to time variation in the risks of infant mortality. All live births that were made five years before the surveys of 1995, 2001, 2006, 2011, and 2016 were considered, with infants who did not survive beyond one year treated as the outcome variable analysis, excluding those who were born less than 12 months before the survey. The fixed part of the model helped us detect the significant variables in determining infant mortality, and yet the random part of the model helped us quantify the amount of time variation in the risks of infant mortality explained by the selected variables. The child-level determinants of infant mortality were sex, birth order, and weight. Among the maternal factors, the study revealed that marital status, access to ANC, use of contraceptives, maternal education level, and preceding birth interval were consistent deterrents of infant mortality, while household size, sanitation, and wealth index remained critical. While controlling for other factors in the rural areas, time variation in the risks of infant mortality was dependent on community factors (such as region, community hygiene, and prenatal care utilization rate), proximate factors (such as access to prenatal care, contraceptives use, place of delivery, and the number of ANC visits), maternal factors (such as marital status, educational level, age, parity, preceding birth interval, desire for pregnancy, and breastfeeding), and endowment. It was observed that the changes in the risks of infant mortality over the period were explained by community (30.7%), proximate (22.7%), maternal (41.0%), and endowment (37.9%). Child-level factors explained 28.2%, and paternal-level education level explained only 30.1%. Remarkably, household-level factors captured 32.3% of the changes in infant mortality. A higher proportion of the explained variation in the risk of infant mortality across communities (PCV) was captured by child, paternal, maternal endowment, and household factors. Interventions to accelerate the reduction in infant mortality should target birth spacing to at least two years, girl child education to at least o level, joint household decision-making in having children, avoiding teenage pregnancies, postnatal care utilization, enforcing at least four ANC visits during pregnancy, improving household sanitation, and increasing access to safe water at household-levelsItem Are Graduates from the Arts-Related Academic Disciplines More Productive than those from the Science-Related Disciplines?(International Journal of Higher Education, 2019) Kakooza, Victoria; Wamala, Robert; Wokadala, James; Bwire, ThomasThe experiences of employees from developed countries affirm that those from science/ technology-related disciplines benefit more through more technological inventions, than those from the Arts/ Humanities-related disciplines. The study utilizes statistical data of higher education graduates to determine a causal link between graduates from the two fore mentioned academic disciplines, and labour productivity in the developing country of Uganda. The data from 1985 to 2017 were analysed using the Vector Error Correction model, and revealed that arts graduates were as productive as the science graduates. The findings also show the existence of long-term relationship between academic discipline and labour productivity, as well as a bi-causality between the variables under study.Item A Causal Model to Compare the Extent of Undergraduates’- Postgraduates’ Impact on Unemployment in Uganda(International Journal of Higher Education, 2019) Kakooza, Victoria; Wamala, Robert; Wokadala, James; Bwire, ThomasThe combination of technological unemployment and oversupply of graduates has increased competition in the labour markets. Postgraduates have been noted to hold more than one job and in some cases apply for jobs meant for undergraduates. Could this imply that post graduates have created more overall unemployment than undergraduates have, in the Ugandan labour market? This is the novel of this study. This was accomplished by a statistical model that comparatively analysed the bi-causal effect of postgraduates on unemployment; versus effect of undergraduates on unemployment. As such, the study utilised Uganda’s secondary data from 1991 to 2017, and employed the Vector Error Correction (VECM) model. The results of the study showed the existence of a long run impact of both the postgraduates and undergraduates on overall unemployment, but an insignificant impact in the short run. The postgraduates had a greater impact on unemployment in the long run, than the undergraduates. The study therefore reveals an affirmative answer to the aforementioned question.Item Child and Household Social-Economic Vulnerability: Determinants Transition from Moderate and Critical Vulnerability Levels in Rural Uganda(Childhood Vulnerability Journal, 2019) Walugembe, Patrick; Wamala, Robert; Misinde, Cyprian; Larok, RitaThe study aimed to determine the factors that affect transition from moderate and critical levels of vulnerability to improved vulnerability status. The central argument of this paper is that individual and household characteristics differ and therefore the effect of programmatic interventions on vulnerability also differs. The assessment is based on a pre and post study of a cohort of 17,484 vulnerable households from 35 districts in rural Uganda. Vulnerability transition was studied at two levels; (i) any improvement of the vulnerability score and (ii) improvement from critical level of vulnerability. The factors associated with transition from any level of vulnerability were; region, disability of the child, parenthood status, household size, age of the parent/guardian as well as participation in the activities namely; economic strengthening, child protection and access to legal services and family strengthening (p < 0.05). Similarly, the factors associated with transition from critical vulnerability were; region, disability of child, parenthood status, household size, as well as participation in the activities namely economic strengthening, child protection and legal services and family strengthening (p < 0.05). In conclusion, whereas interventions like economic strengthening, family strengthening, child protection, and food security and nutrition were associated with improved vulnerability, the characteristics of the individuals and the surrounding household characteristics play a critical role in transition from vulnerability. We conclude that interventions alone are not enough to support transition from vulnerability, but rather it is a combination and an interplay of different influences including individual and household characteristics. There is no ‘one size fits them all’ solution to child vulnerability improvement. This study highlights the need to strive for solutions that recognize the unique characteristics, needs and diversity among different vulnerable populations.Item Child Protection and Household Vulnerability: A Longitudinal Analysis of Child Rights and Protection Amongst Vulnerable Households and their Families in Rural Uganda.(Canadian Journal of Children's Rights/Revue, 2018) Walugembe, Patrick; Larok, Rita; Thembo, Joshua; Wamala, Robert; Misinde, Cyprian; Nakibuuka, Noel; Nyeko, John PaulThis article explores child protection and child rights based on four factors: child abuse, child labour, child substance abuse and child enrolment in school in the context of a vulnerable rural population. The analysis is based on a cohort of 17,848 vulnerable households and the children therein studied over a period of four years under the “sustainable comprehensive responses for vulnerable children and their families project” implemented in rural Uganda between 2011 and 2017. We find out that overall, child protection factors mentioned above improved over the four years alongside household vulnerability, but they were still unacceptably high to enable the realization of child rights in their totally. We observe that compared to the rest of the vulnerable households, the children who had experienced child abuse, used substances and alcohol and experience child labour and were targeted with child protection intervention, were more likely to transition out of vulnerability compared to the others. However, we found out that these children were less likely to be enrolled in school over the four years and were more likely to be absent from school. We conclude that poor child protection indicators amongst the vulnerable children compound their household and individual vulnerability and increase the likelihood that their basic rights will be violated. We recommend that child protection issues, and child rights specifically should be brought at the forefront of all child protection interventions.Item A comparative assessment of selected approaches in modeling completion dynamics of graduate programs(African Statistical Journal Journal statistique africain, 2012) Wamala, Robert; Oonyu, Joseph C.; Ocaya, BrunoAs the higher education landscape changes, factors related to student persistence in graduate programs are being examined by a growing number of researchers. Their investigations, however, can be problematic when: i) a considerable number of students have not completed the program at the time of data collection; ii) enrolment and completion figures are low; iii) a normal distribution of completion time is assumed; and iv) a detailed assessment of non-completion is required. A time-to-event approach in a Cox model, which uses enrolment time as censored for students who have not completed by the time of the study and makes no assumption about the distribution of completion time, solves the first three problems. A multinomial logistic, allowing for at least three outcomes of doctoral candidature, solves the fourth problem. This is illustrated by an analysis of administrative data for the 295 PhD students at Makerere University in the 2000 to 2005 enrolment cohorts. The total elapsed time from first enrolment to submission of final thesis copy was adopted as a measure of completion time. The findings underscore the suitability of these approaches for the analysis of education data with low enrolment and completion figures, a situation characteristic of doctoral studies in many African universities.Item Competence In Mathematics And Academic Achievement: An Analysis Of Enrollees In The Bachelor Of Science In Actuarial Science Program(American Journal of Business Education, 2013) Wamala, Robert; Maswere, Dyson W.; Mwanga, YekoThis study investigates the role of prior grounding attained in mathematics in predicting the academic achievement of enrollees in Bachelor of Science in Actuarial Science (BSAS). The investigation is based on administrative records of 240 BSAS enrollees at Makerere University, School of Statistics and Planning in the 2007–2009 cohorts. Students’ graduating Cumulative Grade Point Average (CGPA) was adopted as a measure of their academic achievement. Mathematics grade scores obtained by the students in their Advanced level (A-level) of secondary education were adopted as a measure of competence in the discipline. Academic achievement was modeled in the analysis by enrollees’ characteristics and their competence in mathematics using a robust regression. The results revealed that students’ CGPA increases with their A-level mathematics scores. A similar pattern is observed when the assessment is made using a combined weighted score of enrollees adopted on admission to the program. The findings confirm that 1) prior academic qualifications predict enrollees’ academic achievement and 2) competence in A-level mathematics predicts success in the program.Item Completion Of A Full Course Of Primary Schooling Among All Children Everywhere By 2015: A Case Of Sub-Saharan Africa(Contemporary Issues in Education Research (CIER),, 2015) Wamala, RobertAchieving the United Nations Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) remains a major challenge, particularly in developing countries. Specifically, achieving the target of completing a full course of primary schooling among all children, which is goal two, is a major challenge for Sub-Saharan Africa. Though literature consensually suggests that the goal will not be achieved by the 2015 target date, no estimates are provided to support these claims. This study seeks to envisage the situation in Sub-Saharan Africa by the target date using an Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The investigation is based on data sourced from the World Bank publication of education indicators for the period 1970–2010. The data, comprising 41 observations, represent the total number of new entrants in the last grade of primary education, regardless of age, expressed as a percentage of the total population of the theoretical entrance age to the last grade of primary education. Overall, an upward trend of completion estimates presented in the results shows that progress has been made in this regard. The success attained for the region following the adoption of the MDGs in 2000 demonstrates that the goal can be achieved. The sub-optimal predictions of the situation obtained in the results nevertheless indicate that the achievement certainly will not be realized by the 2015 target dateItem Determinants of Male Circumcision for HIV/AIDS Prevention in East Central Uganda(African Journal of reproductive health, 2016) Kironde, Brian; Wamala, Robert; Kwagala, BettySafe Male Circumcision (SMC) is one the effective strategies for reducing HIV transmission. The paper examines factors associated with SMC for HIV prevention, based on 4,979 males from East Central Uganda. Data were analysed using chi-squared tests and multinomial logistic regression. Older males aged 31 years and above (p < 0.001), from predominantly non-circumcising districts (Buyende - p < 0.001, Kaliro p < 0.01, and Kamuli - p < 0.01); who had neither used condoms (p = 0.03) nor tested for HIV (p < 0.001) were less likely to circumcise for HIV prevention. Males who were assessed in 2012 (p < 0.001) three years after program implementation were more likely to circumcise for HIV for HIV prevention. Males that did not take measures to prevent HIV infection were less likely to undertake SMC and are therefore highly vulnerable to infection. These (together with older males, and males from non-circumcising districts) should be targeted for promotion of SMC alongside other HIV preventive measures. For better results, the benefits SMC for children as well as adults require emphasis. Wider coverage of SMC services should entail adequate equipping of public and where feasible, private facilities and appropriate training of health personnel countrywide. (Afr J Reprod Health 2016; 20[1]: 80-87).Item Determinants of preference of source of injectable contraceptives among rural women in Uganda: a case study of Depo-Provera.(African Journal of Reproductive Health, 2014-09) Nakayiza, Olivia; Wamala, Robert; Kwagala, BettyUnderstanding preference of source of contraceptive commodities is essential in enhancing the delivery of family planning services. This paper identifies the determinants of preferred source of Depo-Provera among rural women in Uganda. The analysis is based on data sourced from a Save the Children and Family Health International study involving 642 women who were introduced to the contraceptive three years prior to the evaluation. Data were analyzed at univariate, bivariate and multivariate levels. Private sources were the most preferred of Depo-Provera as compared to public sources. Preference for private sources was more likely among older women (p < 0.05), those who had never experienced stock-outs of Depo-Provera (p < 0.01), and those who had obtained their last injectable from private sources (p < 0.01). These findings support the strategy of community-based distribution of contraceptives in enhancing access and utilization of family planning services in Uganda.Item Differences in HIV testing and receipt of results between adolescent and non‑adolescent women in Uganda(AIDS Research and Therapy, 2019) Ediru, Stephen; Wamala, Robert; Kwagala, BettyDespite notable increase in HIV testing among Uganda’s women from 25% in 2006 to 71% in 2011, HIV testing among adolescent women remains very low at 45.5%. This study assesses differences in HIV testing and receipt of results (HTR) between adolescent and non-adolescent women in Uganda. The differences were decomposed into components attributed to variation in characteristics and variation in effects of characteristics in the two groups. The assessment was based on data sourced from 2011 Uganda Demographic Health Survey. Statistical analysis was done using a Non-linear Oaxaca’ Blinder Multivariate Decomposition of the logistic regression. In the results, the difference in HIV testing and receipt of result between adolescent and non-adolescent women was significantly (P < 0.05) attributed to both variation in characteristics (57.2%) and variation in the effects of characteristics/coefficients (42.8%). In particular, the gap in HTR was mainly attributed to variation in characteristics such as ever had sex (34.7%) and ever given birth (31.6%) and variation in effects of characteristics such as education level (− 68.8%) and marital status (− 12.6%). Based on the findings of the study, government and other development partners need to scale up HIV testing programs targeting adolescents through tackling stigma, increasing on community outreach services and expanding adolescent friendly HIV services center.Item Do Graduates from Arts-Related Disciplines have a Higher Impact on Unemployment than Graduates from the Science-Related Disciplines?(International Journal of Higher Education, 2019) Kakooza, Victoria; Wamala, Robert; Wokadala, James; Bwire, ThomasThere have been several attempts in developing countries to reduce both graduate and overall unemployment; with the majority attempts centered on changes in the education sector. To better understand this avenue, this study intends to comparatively establish the impact of the two broad discipline categories of- Arts and science related disciplines- on the overall unemployment. The study employed the Vector autoregressive (VAR) model to analyse Uganda’s data between 1991 and 2017. The findings of the study showed that the arts/humanities graduates have a slightly higher impact on unemployment than their counterparts from the science/technology disciplines in the short run in Uganda; with both groups of graduates having no significant effect on unemployment in the long run.Item Do pre-entry tests predict competencies required to excel academically in law school?: An empirical investigation(Quality Assurance in Education, 2016) Wamala, RobertProspective students of law are required to demonstrate competence in certain disciplines to attain admission to law school. The grounding in the disciplines is expected to demonstrate competencies required to excel academically in law school. The purpose of this study is to investigate the relevance of the law school admission test to predicting the competencies. Design/methodology/approach – The assessment is based on administrative records of 815 students admitted at Makerere University’s law school on the basis of their performance in the test. Grades obtained in advanced level (A-Level) of secondary education subjects, namely, literature, history, divinity and economics, were adopted as a measure of competence in the disciplines. The outcome of the test was modeled by performance of enrollees in the subject, their characteristics (gender, nationality, entry scheme and academic qualifications at enrollment) and first-year grade point average using a quantile regression. Findings – With the exception of enrollees’ characteristics, no significant variations in the outcome of the test were noted in the results between students who did not do the subjects at the A-Level and those who obtained Grade A (p 0.05). Similar findings in performance were noted between students who obtained Grade A and those with other grades in the disciplines. Research limitations/implications – The findings confirm that admission tests to law school are a measure of mental rather than educational or academic ability. However, the results may not be applied to candidates in countries where a bachelor’s degree is a requirement for admission to law school. Originality/value – The study provides an empirical investigation of whether the admission test to law school predicts competencies required to excel academically in the undergraduate program.Item Do prior studies matter?: Predicting proficiencies required to excel academically in law school at Makerere University, Uganda(Quality Assurance in Education, 2016) Nalukenge, Betty; Wamala, Robert; Ocaya, BrunoIntroduction of law school admission examinations has increased the debate regarding the relevance of prior studies for the enrollees in the program. The key issues of contention are whether prior studies reliably predict academic achievement of enrollees, and demonstrate proficiencies required for admission in the program. The purpose of this paper is to use administrative records of law students at Makerere University – over a four-year stipulated period of bachelor’s studies – to investigate the above-mentioned issues further. Design/methodology/approach – Panel data of 2,485 records enable us to explore time variant and invariant factors in the course of bachelor’s candidature. Findings – About 81 per cent of differentials in academic achievement was found to be due to variation across students. In addition to confirming prior academic attainment as a contributing factor to variations in academic achievement, our findings affirm that competence in literature, history and divinity predicts success on the program. Research limitations/implications – Competence in these subjects (literature, history and divinity) certainly demonstrates proficiencies required by a student of law. Thus, admission based on competence in these subjects provides insights into proficiencies required by enrollees to excel academically in the program. Originality/value – Unlike prior studies, this study explores time-variant factors in the course of bachelor’s candidature, and is based on subjects taken during prior studies (secondary education) rather than a pooled index or weighted score adopted on admission to the program.Item Does Higher Education Growth Increase Economic Growth?(African Journal of Multidisciplinary Research, 2019) Kakooza, Victoria; Wamala, Robert; Wokadala, James; Bwire, ThomasThis study seeks to establish the existence of a causal relationship between higher education and economic growth in Uganda, with special focus on the categories of discipline, gender and level of higher education graduates. The study employs the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to establish the interrelationship between these two variables from 1985 to 2017. The results of this study reveal the existence of a long run but not short run effect of higher education on the growth of GDP. The results show a unidirectional causality that was established from GDP to: total graduates; male and female graduates, Arts and Science graduates, as well as postgraduate and undergraduates. The impact of economic growth on higher education was higher for the males compared to female graduates; graduates from science disciplines compared to the Arts, and undergraduates compared to postgraduates. Worth noting is the vital role of GCF as a link between the two variables of Growth and Higher education which was revealed in the findingsItem Employment Relations And Bullying In Academia: A Case Of Academic Staff At Makerere University(Journal of Diversity Management (JDM), 2014) Kakumba, Umar; Wamala, Robert; Wanyama, Seperia B.While institutions of higher learning are ordinarily believed to be the epitome of knowledge and custodians of focal principles that guide sound practices and performance, they are certainly not immune to the prowl of bullying and mobbing, which are antecedents to poor employment relations. This article presents results of a study conducted to examine the nature of employment relations and the prevalence of bullying amongst academic staff at Makerere University. It analyses the prevalence, perceptions, and manifestations of bullying; the nature of employment relations and the existing supportive systems to deal with the vice at this premier university of the eastern and central African region. Results show that bullying and mobbing exist in University academic units. It has thrived on deficiencies in legal and policy framework, poor leadership styles and centralised control of decision-making, the nature of the working environment characterised by scanty resources and facilitation support to task holders. In spite of its incessant nature, it is often trivialized and relegated as a non-issue that deserve little, if any, serious attention. The authors posit that tolerating a culture of human abuse in any form undermines the very essence of a higher institution of learning. Thus, the university must develop a respectful organizational culture that fortifies colleagueship and harmonious coexistence through policy and open systems of communication with empowerment and participatory decision-making. Effort should be made to invigorate rigorous academic debate, research, and other scholarly endeavours, that promote intellectual resonance, as opposed to schemes of undermining practices.Item Extended Candidature And Non-Completion Of A Ph.D. At Makerere University, Uganda(Contemporary Issues in Education Research, 2012) Wamala, Robert; Ocaya, Bruno; Oonyu, Joseph C.Although student persistence in graduate programs is widely regarded as an important topic in the literature of higher education, many such works focus on the completion of studies. This paper examines the dynamics of attrition resulting in either delayed or non-completion of doctoral studies. Administrative data of 294 Ph.D. students at Makerere University in the 2000 to 2005 enrollment cohorts were analyzed. The total elapsed time from first enrollment to submission of a final dissertation or thesis copy was taken as a measure of completion time. A multinomial logistic was applied for assessing the likelihood of completion and extended candidature, rather than withdrawal, five years after initial enrollment in doctoral studies. In the results, the estimates rates of extended candidature (48.6%) and withdrawal (36.4%) indicate a low timely completion rate of doctoral students at Makerere. The observed associations, modeled by a range of candidate, candidature, and institutional variables, including discipline area, suggest the need for establishing measures to promote progress in doctoral studies at early stages of commencement as well as throughout the course of candidature.Item Graduate Management Admission Test Outcomes And The Academic Achievement: A Study On Masters Of Business Administration Students At Makerere University, Uganda(American Journal of Business Education, 2012) Wamala, Robert; Omala Kizito, Saint; Kakumba, UmarThis study investigates whether the outcomes of the Graduate Management Admission Test (GMAT) can predict the academic achievement of enrollees in masters programs. The study is based on administrative data of 516 Masters of Business Administration (MBA) enrollees at the College of Business and Management Science, Makerere University in the 2011 and 2012 enrollment cohorts. The Cumulative Grade Point Average (CGPA) in the bachelor’s degree and that of the first year of master’s studies were adopted as measures of the academic achievement of enrollees. In the analysis, academic achievement of MBA enrollees was modeled using a robust regression by GMAT scores obtained during admission to the program and student characteristics—gender, other qualification, year of completion and outcome of the bachelor’s degree, and whether the candidate obtained his/her bachelor’s degree from Makerere University. In the results, a high GMAT score was significantly associated with high academic achievement among graduate students. This evidence suggests that the theory of an aptitude or admission test being a predictor of academic achievement of learners holds across disciplines. However, a significant association established in the results between the academic achievement of learners at the undergraduate and graduate stages indicates that the undergraduate achievement can be recommended as a cost free alternative for assessing the competence of candidates suitable for admission to the graduate program.Item Interrelationships between early antenatal care, health facility delivery and early postnatal care among women in Uganda: a structural equation analysis(Global Health Action, 2020) Atuhaire, Ruth; Atuhaire, Leonard K.; Wamala, Robert; Nansubuga, ElizabethEarly medical checkups during and after delivery are key strategies to detect, prevent and treat maternal health concerns. Knowledge of interrelationships between early Antenatal Care (ANC), skilled delivery and early postnatal care (EPNC) is essential for focused and well-targeted interventions. This paper investigated the interconnectedness between maternal health services in Uganda. Objective: This study examines the predictors of interrelationships between early antenatal care, health facility delivery and early postnatal care. Methods: We used a sample of 10,152 women of reproductive ages (15–49), who delivered a child five years prior to the 2016 Uganda Demographic and Health Survey. A generalized Structural Equation Model and STATA 13.0 software were used. Results: Early ANC was a mediating factor for health facility delivery (aOR=1.04; 95% CI=1.01- 1.14) and EPNC (aOR=1.1; 95% CI=1.05-1.26). Increased odds of early ANC utilization was directly associated with: Adult women aged 35-49 (aOR=1.18; 95% CI=1.10-1.35), having completed primary seven (aOR=1.68; 95% CI=1.56-1.84); distance to a health facility (aOR=1.35; 95% CI=1.23-1.73) and costs (aOR=1.85; 95% CI=1.31-2.12) not being a problem, available community workers (aOR=1.06; 95% CI=1.04-1.17), pregnancy complications (aOR=2.04; 95% CI=1.85-2.26) and desire for pregnancy (aOR=1.15; 95% CI=1.07-1.36). Through early ANC utilization, being married (aOR=1.16; (=1.04*1.10)), no distance issues ((aOR=1.40; (=1.04*1.35)) and complications (aOR=2.12; (=1.04*2.04)) indirectly influenced utilization of health facility delivery. Women aged 20-34 (aOR=1.01; (=0.92*1.1)), completing primary seven (aOR=1.85; (=1.69*1.1)) and no cost problems (aOR=2.04; (=1.85*1.1)) indirectly influenced EPNC. Conclusion: Early antenatal care was a mediating factor for health facility delivery and EPNC; and hence, there is need for more focus on factors for increased early antenatal care utilization. Women with higher education and those with no cost problems were more likely to have early ANC utilization, skilled delivery and EPNC; therefore there is need to design and implement policies targeting social and economically disadvantaged women.Item Machine Learning Prediction of Preterm Birth: An Analysis of Facility- Based Paper Health Records in Uganda(Research Square, 2022) Memon, Shaheen; Wamala, Robert; Kabano, IgnacePreterm Birth (PTB) is one of the leading causes of neonatal mortality in Uganda. Machine Learning (ML) can be used to identify women at risk of PTB in time for medical intervention and adequate preparation by mothers. Methods: We utilized data from paper-based maternal health records at Kawempe National Referral Hospital, Uganda. A case-control method was employed, where for every woman who experienced a PTB, a woman without PTB and delivered in the same day was selected as a control. Treatment of missing data was done using Random Forest imputation. Variable Importance was analyzed using Random Forest. The following classification methods were applied in the prediction of PTB: Logistic Regression (LR), Random Forest (RF), Decision Tree (DT), Support Vector Machine (SVM), K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), and Naïve Bayes (NB). Performance of methods was investigated using prediction accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. Results: 1,540 women were included in the study, where 770 women had experienced PTB, and 770 women formed the controls. According to variable importance analysis, number of antenatal care visits had the biggest impact on PTB. SVM had the highest accuracy in predicting PTB at 64% (sensitivity 64% and sensitivity 63%). Conclusions: Prediction of PTB using paper-based records in a developing country yielded similar results to studies done using electronic health records in developed countries. The predictive power could be low in this study due to fewer variables available from routinely collected ANC data. The inclusion of significant variables in the maternal records could potentially increase predictive power.