NRU :: Browsing by Author "Mugagga, Frank"

Browsing by Author "Mugagga, Frank"

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Analysis of topographic parameters underpinning landslide occurrence in Kigezi highlands of southwestern Uganda
(Natural Hazards, 2019) Nseka, Denis; Kakembo, Vincent; Bamutaze, Yazidhi; Mugagga, Frank
An assessment of the influence of topography on landslide occurrence in the Kigezi highlands of southwestern Uganda was conducted. Whereas the frequency and magnitude of landslides in these highlands are on the increase, the topographic attributes underpinning landslide occurrence are not well understood. Sixty-five landslide scars were surveyed and mapped to produce landslide distribution maps. Specific topographic parameters, namely slope gradient, profile curvature, topographic wetness index (TWI), stream power index (SPI), and topographic position index (TPI), were assessed on landslide slope sites. The attributes were parameterized in the field and GIS environment using a 10-m DEM. Landslides were noted to concentrate along narrow topographic hollows, as opposed to broad concave slopes in the landscape. The occurrence is dominant in slope zones where slope gradient, profile curvature, TWI, TPI, and SPI are 25°–35°, 0.1–5, 8–18, − 1–1, and > 10, respectively. It was established that profile curvature and slope gradient are the most and least significant topographic parameters in landslide occurrence (R2 = 0.802, p value = 0.088 and R2 = 0.5665, p value = 0.057), respectively. An understanding of these topographic underpinnings would serve to identify and predict potential landslide zones within the landscape and enhance landslide hazard mitigation.
An Appraisal of Adaptation Measures to Climate Variability by Smallholder Irish Potato Farmers in South Western Uganda
(American Journal of Climate Change, 2020) Mugagga, Frank; Nimusiima, Alex; Elepu, Julius
Climate change and variability are a reality and have had marked effects on both human and ecological systems. Adaptation to such effects either directly or indirectly is viewed as a novel way of reducing the spread of the associated risks. The study was conducted in Rubanda District with a general aim of evaluating the effectiveness of adaptation measures to climate variability used by smallholder Irish potatoes farmers. Specifically, we sought to appraise smallholder Irish potato farmers’ perceptions about the effectiveness of climate variability adaptation measures and implications on Irish potato productivity. We undertook a cross-sectional study to collect data from total of 197 farmers using a structured questionnaire. Other participatory methods such as focus group discussions and key informant interview were also used to complement the household survey. Data were analyzed using SPSS Version 23 to generate descriptive statistics as well as relationships between the adaptation measures and the productivity of the Irish potatoes using a Cobb-Douglas production function. The Cobb-Douglas model revealed that the use of fertilizers was significantly and positively associated with productivity of Irish potato (P < 0.001). Furthermore, Smallholder Irish potato farmers perceived the use of technology, terracing, early planting and application of fertilizers as the most effective climate variability adaptation measures. The study recommends that measures that are cost-effective, efficient and coherent should be promoted to offset the impacts of climate variability which would include the adoption of improved potato varieties and use of fertilizers with proper management of erosion. Off-season planting of Irish potatoes in the wetlands should be discouraged by the local administration and the National Environment Management Authority. This calls for a collective action involving the agricultural practitioners and inline civil society organizations to ensure that farmers have access to such inputs.
Assessment of Landslide susceptibility and risk to road network in Mt Elgon, Uganda
(Natural Hazards, 2019) Nakileza, Bob Roga; Mugagga, Frank; Musali, Paul; Nedala, Shafiq
Globally landslides occurrence is reportedly frequent particularly in the mountainous regions causing both direct and indirect effects to various sectors including the road transport. Landslides directly cause physical impact on the road network such as deposition of debris and impartial or total erosion of road segments. This leads to increased damage costs. Indirectly landslides cause disruption of the trade and movement whenever roads are blocked and alternative routes are resorted to. Existing literature reveals limited assessment of road vulnerability to landslides in the mountain regions in Africa. This study aimed at closing this information gap by investigating the risk to different segments of the road network in the Mt Elgon region. A fuzzy logic model was used to assess and map the landslide susceptibility into low, moderate, high and very high categories. The results reveal that mid to high altitude steep and rugged areas are more susceptible to landslides. The model performance was good as revealed by high AUC of 83%. Hotspot segments, which are high risk sections of the road network need to be prioritized for monitoring and risk mitigation.
The centrality of water resources to the realization of Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). A review of potentials and constraints on the African continent
(International Soil and Water Conservation Research, 2016) Mugagga, Frank; Nabaasa, Benon B.
Africa is endowed with vast water resources including but not limited to lakes, rivers, swamps and underground aquifers. However, the way of life in Africa does not reflect this kind of wealth owing majorly to degradation and underutilization of these water resources. This review discusses the centrality of water resources in Africa's pursuit of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Following the Sustainable Development Model, the paper thematically examines and synthesizes the importance and potentials of water resources to Africa's development through exploring their contributions and limitations to the various economic sectors namely; agricultural and livestock production, energy, manufacturing and processing, tourism, health, fisheries, trade and other institutional mechanisms such as payment for ecosystem services (PES), mutual cooperation and economic cooperation. Data were collected by review of online peer-reviewed and grey literature published between the year 2000 and 2015. It is observed that sustainable management of water and sanitation for all (SDG 6) will be central to the attainment of all the other SDGs (particularly SDG 1 (No poverty), 2 (No hunger), 3 (Good health), 14 (life below water) and 15 (life on land)) across Africa. African states should therefore increase their commitment to water conservation and management as this will significantly decide Africa's future development paths.
Comparison of extreme weather events and streamflow from drought indices and a hydrological model in River Malaba, Eastern Uganda
(International Journal of Environmental Studies, 2013) Barasa, Bernard,; Kakembo, Vincent,; Mugagga, Frank; Egeru, Anthony
The study examined the applicability of the Combined Drought Index (CDI), Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and IHACRES (identification of unit hydrographs and component flows from rainfall, evaporation and streamflow data) model in characterizing extreme weather events in relation to streamflow variations of the River Malaba. The results showed that the extreme weather events return period had reduced from 4–10 to 1–3 years over the catchment. The CDI was a better predictor of drought events (2005–2006) than the SPI, which was better for flood events (2006, 1997 and 2008) in the catchment. The performance of the IHACRES model with a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.89 comparatively corresponded with the results obtained from the SPI and CDI drought indices especially during recorded events of severe drought (2005) and flood (1997). These results coincided with the La-Nina events that were recorded over the catchment and Uganda at large.
Compensation packages and implications for social networks among development-induced displaced persons in Uganda’s Albertine Graben
(Development in Practice, 2021) Mugagga, Frank; Tibakunirwa, Leonida; Musali, Paul
The study aimed at understanding the implications of compensation packages for the social networks of displaced persons in Uganda’s oilrich Albertine Graben. Questionnaires, interviews, focus group discussions, and observations were used to obtain data from purposively selected respondents. Qualitative data was analysed using content analysis while quantitative data analysis entailed generating descriptive statistics (percentages) and inferential analysis was performed through cross-tabulation by way of chi-square tests. There was a significant association between compensation type and social network distortion for the affected groups (p = 0.000). Institutional management of different compensation packages exhibited professional shortcomings that need to be addressed to build sustainable social networks such as credit facilities. We thus recommend that government involves all stakeholders at every development phase and that compensation rates are continuously updated to allow for fair compensation rates in future and effective resettlement procedures during induced-displacement and resettlement processes.
The damage caused by landslides in socio-economic spheres within the Kigezi highlands of South Western Uganda
(Environmental & Socio-economic Studies, 2021) Nseka, Denis; Mugagga, Frank; Opedes, Hosea; Ayesiga, Patience; Wasswa, Hannington; Mugume, Isaac; Nimusiima, Alex; Nalwanga, Faridah
An assessment of the socio-economic implications of landslide occurrence in the Kigezi highlands of South Western Uganda was conducted. Landslide occurrence is on the increase and threatens community livelihoods in these highlands. Detailed field investigations were undertaken with the help of local communities between June 2018 and May 2020 to identify and map recent and visible landslide scars in Rukiga uplands of Kigezi highlands. In the course of field inventories, 85 visible landslide scars were identified and mapped using handheld GPS receivers to produce a landslide distribution map for the study area. A socio-economic analysis was conducted to establish the effects of landslide damage on people’s livelihoods as well as their existing coping and adaptation mechanisms. The assessment was administered through field observations and surveying, focus group discussions, key informants and household interviews as well as the use of Local Government Environmental Reports. The study established an increase in the spatial-temporal distribution of landslides over the Kigezi highlands in the past 40 years. The landslides have resulted in a reduction in the quality of land, loss of lives, destruction of transport infrastructures, settlements, farmlands, crops and other socio-economic infrastructures. Therefore, it is important to look for reliable and sustainable measures to prevent landslide hazards. Total landscape reforestation with deep-rooted trees can possibly reduce the landslide risk. It is also important to undertake policy implementation for preparedness and mitigation plans against landslides in this region and in the country at large. Proper soil and water conservation measures could help in enhancing soil strength against landslide hazards.
Determinants of malaria infections among children in refugee settlements in Uganda during 2018–2019
(Infectious Diseases of Poverty, 2023) Semakula, Henry M.; Liang, Song; Mukwaya, Paul I.; Mugagga, Frank; Swahn, Monica; Nseka, Denis; Wasswa, Hannington; Kayima, Patrick
While 5% of 247 million global malaria cases are reported in Uganda, it is also a top refugee hosting country in Africa, with over 1.36 million refugees. Despite malaria being an emerging challenge for humanitarian response in refugee settlements, little is known about its risk factors. This study aimed to investigate the risk factors for malaria infections among children under 5 years of age in refugee settlements in Uganda. Methods We utilized data from Uganda’s Malaria Indicator Survey which was conducted between December 2018 and February 2019 at the peak of malaria season. In this national survey, household level information was obtained using standardized questionnaires and a total of 7787 children under 5 years of age were tested for malaria using mainly the rapid diagnostic test. We focused on 675 malaria tested children under five in refugee settlements located in Yumbe, Arua, Adjumani, Moyo, Lamwo, Kiryadongo, Kyegegwa, Kamwenge and Isingiro districts. The extracted variables included prevalence of malaria, demographic, social-economic and environmental information. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify and define the malaria associated risk factors. Results Overall, malaria prevalence in all refugee settlements across the nine hosting districts was 36.6%. Malaria infections were higher in refugee settlements located in Isingiro (98.7%), Kyegegwa (58.6%) and Arua (57.4%) districts. Several risk factors were significantly associated with acquisition of malaria including fetching water from open water sources [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 1.22, 95% CI: 0.08–0.59, P = 0.002], boreholes (aOR = 2.11, 95% CI: 0.91–4.89, P = 0.018) and water tanks (aOR = 4.47, 95% CI: 1.67–11.9, P = 0.002). Other factors included pit-latrines (aOR = 1.48, 95% CI: 1.03–2.13, P = 0.033), open defecation (aOR = 3.29, 95% CI: 1.54–7.05, P = 0.002), lack of insecticide treated bed nets (aOR = 1.15, 95% CI: 0.43–3.13, P = 0.003) and knowledge on the causes of malaria (aOR = 1.09, 95% CI: 0.79–1.51, P = 0.005). Conclusions The persistence of the malaria infections were mainly due to open water sources, poor hygiene, and lack of preventive measures that enhanced mosquito survival and infection. Malaria elimination in refugee settlements requires an integrated control approach that combines environmental management with other complementary measures like insecticide treated bed nets, indoor residual spraying and awareness.
Determinants of malaria infections among children in refugee settlements in Uganda. Analysis of data from Uganda malaria indicator survey, 2018-19
(Analysis of data from Uganda malaria indicator survey, 2023) Musoke, Henry S.; Liang, Song; Mukwaya, Paul Isolo; Mugagga, Frank; Swahn, Monica; Nseka, Denis; Wasswa, Hannington; Kayima, Patrick
Globally, 5% of 247 million global malaria cases are reported Uganda which is also one of the top refugee hosting countries in Africa, with 1.36 million refugees currently. Although malaria is an emerging challenge for humanitarian response in refugee settlements, little is known about its risk factors. The study analysed data from the 2018-19 Uganda Malaria Indicator Survey (UMIS) to determine the factors associated with malaria infections among refugee children under ve years of age.
Development Induced Displacement; A Review of Risks Faced by Communities in Developing Countries
(Sociology and Anthropology, 2019) Aboda, Caroline; Mugagga, Frank; Byakagaba, Patrick; Nabanoga, Goretti
About 15 million people every year are forced to live their homes to give way for huge development projects such as dams, highways, and mining. In most developing countries, such projects have been noted to increase ecological and social vulnerability, thus leaving the affected people displaced, disempowered and destitute. The literature review paper focused on the different risks communities are exposed to due to development induced displacement and resettlement. The data presented is review of online peer-reviewed and grey literature between the years 1980 through 2018. The risks analyzed through the Impoverishment, Risk and Reconstruction (IRR) model acts as a guide in selecting and understanding the risks of development induced displacement and Resettlement (DIDR) during social vulnerability assessment. Often the question of social vulnerability has been largely ignored due to the difficulty in quantification. Risk analysis also provides ground to further investigate reasons for the occurrence and persistency of the risks, in developing countries such as India, Sudan and Kenya. The findings of the review through the IRR model indicated that displacement and resettlement exposes project affected people to some opportunities, but largely associated with more risks. Some of the reasons for the persistency of the risks included; compensation for lost properties and lack of experience and capacity to handle resettlement processes. Identifying reasons for the persistency of the already known risks, especially in developing countries builds on the previous work on DIDR risks by Micheal Cernea and other researchers.
Evaluation of WRF‑chem simulations of NO2 and CO from biomass burning over East Africa and its surrounding regions
(Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, 2022) Opio, Ronald; Mugume, Isaac; Nakatumba‑Nabende, Joyce; Nanteza, Jamiat; Nimusiima, Alex; Mbogga, Michael; Mugagga, Frank
In East Africa, biomass burning in the savanna region emits nitrogen dioxide ( NO2), carbon monoxide (CO), and aerosols among other species. These emissions are dangerous air pollutants which pose a health risk to the population. They also affect the radiation budget. Currently, limited academic research has been done to study their spatial and temporal distribution over this region by means of numerical modeling. This study therefore used the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with chemistry (WRF-chem) to simulate, for the first time, the distribution of NO2 during the year 2012 and CO during the period June 2015 to May 2016 over this region. These periods had the highest atmospheric abundances of these species. The model’s performance was evaluated against satellite observations from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and the Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT). Three evaluation metrics were used, these were, the normalized mean bias (NMB), the root mean square error (RMSE) and Pearson’s correlation coefficient (R). Further, an attempt was made to reduce the bias shown by WRF-chem by applying a deep convolutional autoencoder (WRF-DCA) algorithm and linear scaling (WRF-LS). The results showed that WRF-chem simulated the seasonality of the gases but made below adequate estimates of the gas abundances. It overestimated NO2 and underestimated CO throughout all the seasons. Overall, for NO2, WRF-chem had an average NMB of 3.51, RMSE of 2 × 1015 molecules/cm2 and R of 0.44 while for CO, it had an average NMB of − 0.063, RMSE of 0.65 × 1018 molecules/cm2 and R of 0.13. Furthermore, even though both WRF-DCA and WRF-LS successfully reduced the bias in WRF-chem’s NO2 estimates, WRF-DCA had a superior performance compared to WRF-LS. It reduced the NMB by an average of 3.2 (90.2%). Finally, this study has shown that deep learning has a strong ability to improve the estimates of numerical models, and this can be a cue to incorporate this approach along other stages of the numerical modeling process.
The Fragility of Agricultural Landscapes and Resilience of Communities to Landslide Occurrence in the Tropical Humid Environments of Kigezi Highlands in South Western Uganda
(Springer, Cham., 2019) Nseka, Denis; Bamutaze, Yazidhi; Mugagga, Frank; Nakileza, Bob
This chapter examines the influence of agricultural land uses on the occurrence of landslides in the humid tropical environments of Kigezi highlands in South Western Uganda. Analysis of the agricultural land use practices is a prerequisite to understanding landscape fragility and community resilience to landslide hazards. An analysis of agricultural land use patterns was undertaken through interpretation of Sentinel 2A images for 2016. The imagery data was acquired from the European Space Agency (ESA) Sentinels Scientific Data Hub. Field surveys and investigations were also carried out to establish and map the spatial distribution of landslide hazards. Six agricultural land use categories were identified, namely, annuals, perennials, grazing, fallow, wood lots and agroforestry. Considering the agricultural land use patterns, annual crops are the dominant agricultural land use type spanning 69% of the total area followed; by perennials (13%). Grazing land and fallows covered 11% and 5%, respectively. The study revealed that annual crop land is the most affected agricultural land use category. Out of the 65 landslide scars mapped, 31% occurred on annual crop areas. Wood lot areas experienced the least landslide occurrence (4%). A close spatial distribution of agricultural land use practices and landslide occurrence is discernible. It is recommended that a comprehensive tree planting campaign be carried out in areas prone to landslides since it was inferred that wood lots suffered least from landslides. It is also recommended that farmers be encouraged to restore and manage terrace bunds which could help to check on water velocity and consequently increase on slope stability.
A global perspective on soil science education at third educational level; knowledge, practice, skills and challenges
(Geoderma, 2022) Charzynski, Przemysław; Urbanska, Magdalena; Capra, Gian Franco; Ganga, Antonio; Mugagga, Frank; Vezzani, Fabiane; Zhang, Shugang
The pivotal role of soil as a resource is not fully appreciated by the general public. Improving education in soil science represents a challenge in a world where soil resources are under serious threat. Today’s high school students, the world’s future landowners, agriculturalists, and decision makers, have the potential to change society’s apathy towards soils issues. This research aimed to compare the level of soil education in high and/or secondary schools in forty-three countries worldwide, together comprising 62% of the world’s population. Comparisons were made between soil science content discussed in educationally appropriate textbooks via a newly proposed soil information coefficient (SIC). Interviews with teachers were undertaken to better understand how soil science education is implemented in the classroom. Statistical analyses were investigated using clustering. Results showed that gaps in soil science education were most commonly observed in countries where soil science is a non-compulsory or optional subject. Soil science concepts are predominantly a part of geography or environmental science curricula. Consequently, considerable variability in soil science education systems among investigated countries exists. Soil information coefficient‘s outcomes demonstrated that a methodological approach combining textbooks and the use of modern digitally based strategies in the educational process significantly improved soil education performances. Overall, soil science education is under-represented in schools worldwide. Dynamic new approaches are needed to improve pivotal issues such as: i) promoting collaborations and agreements between high school and universities; ii) encouraging workshops and practical exercises such as field activities; and, iii) implementing technology tools. This, in turn, will prepare the next generation to contribute meaningfully towards solving present and future soil problems.
Institutional Determinants to Climate Variability Adaptation by Smallholder Irish Potato Farmers in Rubanda District, South Western Uganda
(American Journal of Climate Change, 2019) Mugagga, Frank; Elepu, Julius; Nimusiima, Alex; Bamutaze, Yazidhi
Climate variability and change pose greater challenge not only to human life but to the environment at large. This study sought to evaluate the significance of institutional factors in climate variability adaptation of smallholder Irish potato farmers in Rubanda District, South Western Uganda with the objective of assessing the adaptation measures adopted by smallholder Irish potato farmers, determining the institutional factors that influence adoption of climate variability adaptation measures; and evaluating the institutional challenges that affect the adapting Irish potato farmers. A cross-sectional survey was undertaken to collect data from 197 systematically sampled smallholder farmers from two purposively selected sub counties (Muko and Bubaare) in Rubanda District, using structured questionnaires; whilst key informant interviews were used to elicit data from purposively selected personnel from the local government as well as private and civil society organizations. Multiple linear regression was used to determine the relative influence of selected variables on adaptation measures against climate variability. Results indicate that smallholder Irish potato farmers are adapting to climate variability through agronomic measures such as terracing, mulching, contour ploughing, changing planting dates, early planting, crop-rotation, and technology related measures such as rain water harvesting technologies, adaptive varieties and fertilizers among others. Results from multiple linear regression analysis show that several institutional factors are influencing adoption of climate variability adaptive measures with the most significant ones being access to agricultural extension services, cultivated area and size of land owned. Despite the interventions undertaken, adaptation to climate variability is constrained by the limited access to financial/credit resources and in- adequate technical capacity as well as limited access to information and irregularity of extension services. The study recommends that public and private institutions and personnel, both technical and political, at the various levels of local government, work together to improve extension services, communication as well as enhancing access to credit facilities among smallholder farmers, who will also need to further strengthen existing social groups to enhance their bargaining power.
Integrated modelling of the determinants of household food insecurity during the 2020– 2021 COVID-19 lockdown in Uganda
(BioMed Central, 2024-11) Semakula, Henry Musoke; Liang, Song; McKune, Sarah Lindley; Mukwaya, Paul Isolo; Mugagga, Frank; Nseka, Denis; Wasswa, Hannington; Kayima, Patrick; Achuu, Simon Peter; Mwendwa, Patrick; Nakato, Jovia
Background-The determinants of household food insecurity (HFI) do not act in isolation, and are known to be complex, stochastic, nonlinear, and multidimensional. Despite this being especially true in periods of shocks, studies that focus on integrated modelling of the HFI determinants during the COVID-19 lockdown are scarce, with no available evidence on Uganda. The main objective of this study was to develop Bayesian belief network (BBN) models to analyse, rank, and illustrate the conceptual reasoning, and complex causal relationships among the determinants of HFI during the COVID-19 lockdown. This study was based on seven rounds of Uganda’s High-Frequency Phone Surveys data sets collected during the lockdown. A total of 15,032 households, 17 independent determinants of HFI, and 8 food security indicators were used in this study. Metrics of sensitivity, and prediction performance were used to evaluate models’ accuracy.ResultsEight BBN models were developed for each food insecurity indicator. The accuracy rates of the models ranged between 70.5% and 93.5%, with an average accuracy rate of 78.5%, indicating excellent predictive performance in identifying the determinants of HFI correctly. Our results revealed that approximately 42.2% of the sampled households (n = 15,032) in Uganda were worried about not having enough food. An estimated 25.2% of the respondents reported skipping a meal, while 32.1% reported consuming less food. Less than 20% of the households experienced food shortage, hunger, or having nothing to eat. Overall, 30.6% of the households were food insecure during the lockdown. The top five ranked determinants of HFI were identified as follows: (1) households’ inability to produce enough food; (2) households’ inability to buy food; (3) reduced household income; (4) limited cash assistance, and (5) households’ inability to stock adequate food supplies.ConclusionsRanking, rather than the statistical significance of the determinants of HFI, is crucial as an approach to applied research, as it helps stakeholders determine how to allocate resources for targeted interventions within the constraints of limited funding. These findings emphasize the importance of intervening on the most highly ranked determinants of HFI to enhance the resilience of local food systems, and households’ capacity to cope with recurring and unforeseen shocks. Agricultural Science Database
Land Cover Change Detection and Subsistence Farming Dynamics in the Fringes of Mount Elgon National Park, Uganda from 1978–2020
(Remote Sens, 2022) Opedes, Hosea; Mücher, Sander; Baartman, Jantiene E. M.; Nedala, Shafiq; Mugagga, Frank
Analyzing the dominant forms and extent of land cover changes in the Mount Elgon region is important for tracking conservation efforts and sustainable land management. Mount Elgon’s rugged terrain limits the monitoring of these changes over large areas. This study used multitemporal satellite imagery to analyze and quantify the land cover changes in the upper Manafwa watershed of Mount Elgon, for 42 years covering an area of 320 km2. The study employed remote sensing techniques, geographic information systems, and software to map land cover changes over four decades (1978, 1988, 2001, 2010, and 2020). The maximum likelihood classifier and post-classification comparison technique were used in land cover classification and change detection analysis. The results showed a positive percentage change (gain) in planted forest (3966%), built-up (890%), agriculture (186%), and tropical high forest low-stocked (119%) and a negative percentage change (loss) in shrubs (􀀀81%), bushland (􀀀68%), tropical high forest well-stocked (􀀀50%), grassland (􀀀44%), and bare and sparsely vegetated surfaces (􀀀14%) in the period of 1978–2020. The observed changes were concentrated mainly at the peripheries of the Mount Elgon National Park. The increase in population and rising demand for agricultural land were major driving factors. However, regreening as a restoration effort has led to an increase in land area for planted forests, attributed to an improvement in conservation-related activities jointly implemented by the concerned stakeholders and native communities. These findings revealed the spatial and temporal land cover changes in the upper Manafwa watershed. The results could enhance restoration and conservation efforts when coupled with studies on associated drivers of these changes and the use of very-high-resolution remote sensing on areas where encroachment is visible in the park.
Landslide susceptibility mapping using weights of evidence model on the slopes of Mount Elgon, eastern Uganda
(East African Journal of Environment and Natural Resources, 2022) Mande, Manasseh; Nseka, Denis; Mugagga, Frank
Generally, landslide susceptibility mapping is an important step in mitigating their impacts. There is, however, particular dearth of information on the application of GIS-based bivariate methods particularly the weights of evidence model in mapping landslide susceptibility on the slopes of Mount Elgon in eastern Uganda. This study, therefore, evaluated the susceptibility of Bukalasi milli-watershed to landslides, as an early warning strategy for the major landslide hotspot in Uganda. A landslide inventory for the study area was prepared, and the weights of influence of selected landslide-conditioning factors were calculated to present their relative importance in landslide susceptibility. Eight conditioning factors were considered in this study namely; land use, lithology, rainfall, elevation, slope aspect, slope angle, plan curvature and profile curvature. Following the results of the Agterberg-Cheng conditional independence test (probability = 62.5%), the hypothesis of conditional independence among these factors was accepted. Validation using the ROC indicated satisfactory performance of the model considering the model prediction rate (Area under the Curve = 0.882) and success rate (Area under the Curve = 0.912). The final landslide susceptibility map highlights high susceptibility in the southern and western parts of the study area. It further shows that whereas Bukibumbi, Bundesi and Suume parishes are the most prone parishes, Shibanga Parish is relatively the least prone to landslides disasters. Thus, such highly susceptible areas should be prioritised during intervention programmes, especially relocation of the residents at risk. Since the absence of forests has been indicated to exacerbate susceptibility to landslides, deforestation should have severe penalties, and extensive tree-planting should instead be encouraged. Other human activities like farming on fragile slopes, which would further destabilise the slopes should particularly be discouraged.
Mapping the susceptibility of persons with disabilities to landslides in a highland landscape of Bushika Sub County, Mount Elgon, Eastern Uganda
(Journal of Disaster Risk Studies, 2022) Ssennoga, Martin; Mugagga, Frank; Nadhomi, Daniel L.; Kisira, Yeeko
Terrain parameters such as slope aspect, angle, curvature, stream power and altitude have been noted to spur landslide occurrence as well as, acting as a hindrance to evacuation efforts. Yet, persons with disabilities (PWDs) are seldom given priority during rescue and recovery programmes during pre- and post-disaster evacuation. The study was guided by two objectives, namely, (1) to map the landslide risk for households of PWDs and (2) to investigate the disability type that is perceived to be most affected by landslides. A cross-sectional household survey was adopted employing snowball sampling, Key Informant Interviews (KII), and Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) for primary data collection. A 30-m Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) Digital Elevation Model (DEM) was used for terrain spatial landslide risk analysis in ArcGis 10.8 and System for Automated Geoscientific Analyses (SAGA) tools. A one-sample t-test in Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 23 was used to analyse the score values on a five-point Likert scale to ascertain the perceived landslide effect on the different disability categories. Qualitative data was subjected to content analysis. We found out that majority of PWDs live in high-risk landslide zones with 1400 m – 1700 m, S-E, 10–80, > 10, and –0.8–0.13 of altitude, aspect, slope angle, Stream Power Index (SPI), and slope curvature, respectively. T-test results revealed that blind and deaf-blind were perceived as most affected by landslides with t(31) = 58.42, mean = 4.7, p < 0.0001, and t(31) = 34.8, mean 4.6, p < 0.0001. The deaf people were perceived to also be highly affected by landslides with t(31) = 34.4, mean = 3.9, p < 0.0001. In conclusion, PWDs in Bushika were highly susceptible to landslide hazards and yet considered as a minority for rescue and recovery during landslide occurrences. We recommend for prioritisation of inclusive disaster programmes such as disaster training, relocation, and resettlement to reduce vulnerability and enhance landslides disaster resilience of PWDs especially in high-risk areas.
A meta-analysis of urban and peri-urban agriculture and forestry in mediating climate change
(Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 2015) Lwasa, Shuaib; Mugagga, Frank; Wahab, Bolanle; Simon, David; Connors, John P.; Griffith, Corrie
This paper systematically reviews literature on urban and peri-urban agriculture and forestry (UPAF) in mediating climate change. The study includes both peer-reviewed and grey literature (274 literature sources), and synthesizes evidence and agreement on both UPAF’s potential and limitations for mitigating and adapting to climate change. Eight East and West African cities were included in the review: Accra, Addis Ababa, Dakar, Dar es Salaam, Douala, Kampala, Ibadan and Nairobi. The review focuses on urban livelihoods, ecosystem services and urban policy responses as pathways to mediating climate change. Literature on UPAF indicates emerging consensus on the potential of UPAF in adaptation, but less agreement with respect to mitigation of climate change. African cities are implementing several measures including UPAF to address issues of development, reduce inequality and move towards low emissions development strategies. This calls for integrated urban development that supports green growth to harness economic opportunities with social and environmental benefits. The review reveals that through UPAF, the potential for mitigation and adaptation of climate change can address some development deficit issues and transform institutions at the city-regional level by leveraging good UPAF practices.
Monitoring land cover changes and farming dynamics in the fringes of Mount Elgon National Park, Uganda.
(Copernicus Meetings, 2022) Opedes, Hosea; Baartman, Jantiene; Mücher, Sander; Mugagga, Frank
Analyzing the dominant forms and extent of land cover changes in the Mount Elgon region is important for tracking conservation efforts and sustainable land management. Mount Elgon's rugged terrain limits monitoring these changes over large areas. With conducive climatic conditions, highly fertile and productive soils; Elgon is one of the densely populated rural mountainous regions in East Africa. The demand for more agricultural land and space for settlement has led to continued vegetation clearance and encroachment of the park. These pressures combined with the loss of vegetation cover have led to the continued occurrence of natural hazards, especially landslides and soil erosion events. Recent studies have given focus to these hazards and coping strategies. However, monitoring changes in land cover and associated driving factors are fundamental towards the improvement of land use, land restoration, and vegetation recovery in Mount Elgon. This study used multitemporal satellite imagery, aerial photographs, field surveys, and expert interviews to analyze and quantify the land cover flows in the upper Manafwa watershed of Mount Elgon, for 42 years covering an area of 319.73km2. The study employed remote sensing techniques and geographic information system and software to map land cover changes for four stages (1978-1988, 1988-2001, 2001-2010, and 2010-2020). The study considered nine land cover classes; tropical high forest well-stocked, grassland, shrubs, bushland, bare & sparsely vegetated surfaces, tropical high forest low-stocked, agriculture, planted forest, and built-up. The maximum likelihood classifier of supervised classification and postclassification comparison technique was used in land cover classification and change detection analysis.

Browsing by Author "Mugagga, Frank"

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