Social Sciences

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Browsing Social Sciences by Author "Kilimani, Nicholas"

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    Estimation of Disaggregated Impacts of Education Expansion on Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa
    (Modern Economy, 2018) Nnyanzi, John Bosco; Kilimani, Nicholas
    Underpinned by evidence from the theories of endogenous growth which stress the role of human capital accumulation in enhancing growth, this pa- per investigates the disaggregated impact of school enrolment on economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) for the period 1995-2016. The analysis is based on the augmented Solow, and Mankiw models and employs the Gener- alized Method of Moments (GMM) technique that takes care of endogeneity in a dynamic panel environment. The results point to a significant but differ- ential impact of educational expansion in facilitating economic performance in the SSA region. Essentially, the growth enhancing impact of education de- pends on the type of education with secondary education yielding the largest impacts. The gender disaggregated model results show that and secondary school and primary enrolment yield higher growth effects relative to tertiary enrolment. Most interestingly and contrary to existing literature on the gen- der disaggregated impact of education on growth, the education of girls is seen to yield higher growth effects relative to boys. Based on evidence of the positive impact of girl-child education, policy interventions to support and sustain girl child education in Sub-Saharan Africa ought to be encouraged.
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    Mitigating the Effects of the Credit Crunch through Trade: The Case of Uganda
    (African Economic Research Consortium (AERC), 2009) Kilimani, Nicholas
    The global financial crisis is envisaged to cause substantial global economic instability in the foreseeable future. More worrying however is the fact that the developing countries, which at the start of the crisis seemed to be far away from its effects (first round) will most likely bear a considerable share of its blunt (through the second round effects). In the developing world, Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to be severely affected largely because of the high level of susceptibility of most of its economies to external shocks (through the various transmission channels) and also from the fact that these economies had steadily started to be integrated into the global economy over the last one and half decades. This paper analyzes how Uganda could exploit export market diversification as one of the possible responses to the potential impacts of the global financial crisis. It provides an overview of the possible impact of the crisis on the macroeconomic outlook and ways in which the effects can be mitigated with regard to casting a wider export destination for Uganda’s products. The analysis indicates that Uganda can diversify her export markets by capitalizing on the regional market as well as emerging markets in Asia, the Middle East and Europe.
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    Trade Liberalization, Export and Import Growth: Evidence from Uganda
    (Makerere University, 2009) Kilimani, Nicholas; Sebaggala, Richard
    The study explores the impact of trade liberalization on export and import growth in Uganda. A number of developing countries have opened up their own economies to take full advantage of the resultant opportunities for economic development through trade. Proponents of trade liberalization envisage positive results emanating from the increased competition in the sector. For instance, liberalization aids competition in the market, by increasing the basket of goods and services with better quality and lower prices. However, trade liberalization in developing countries has been criticized for increasing import penetration on the pretext of opening up the sector to more competition. The reason is that trade policy reforms tend to have a more immediate effect on the imports than on the exports. This concern has motivated researchers to investigate whether or not the impact of trade liberalization has been greater on export growth than on import growth. This is because Uganda is one of the countries to have implemented significant economic reforms, including the liberalization of the trade regime, over the last two decades and a half. These reforms have been both external and domestic. Substantial progress has been made to reduce tariff and non-tariff barriers through the EAC. The study investigated the issue using macro and micro analysis of the Ugandan economy. The macro analysis was employed by estimating the export and import models estimated using Vector Error-Correction modeling (VECM) using time series macroeconomic data for the period 1981-2009. The results of the study suggest that trade liberalization has led more to growth in imports than exports. The macro study findings are in line with previous observations made by Morrissey, et al., (2003); Santos-Paulino (2003); Santos-Paulino & Thirlwall (2004) and Hye & Mashkoor (2010). With regard to the micro analysis several, issues under the trade sector were highlighted that could be linked to the macro evidence which were; larger growth in imports than exports. Such critical issues included the adverse effect of the dismantling of the marketing boards, the inadequacy of the trade sector infrastructure, the low value addition and limited research and dissemination of the ever-changing trends in international trade regarding the products on high demand, the standards required to access such markets as well as the absence of value chains in the tradeables sectors. These have served to inhibit export growth. These issues were manifested at a macro level analysis for instance in the weak significance of the coefficient of the foreign income as well in that of the reel exchange rate in the export growth model