Indices to Measure Risk of HIV Acquisition in Rakai, Uganda

Abstract

Targeting most-at-risk individuals with HIV preventive interventions is cost-effective. We developed gender specific indices to measure risk of HIV among sexually active individuals in Rakai, Uganda. Methods: We used multivariable Cox proportional hazards models to estimate time-to-HIV infection associated with candidate predictors. Reduced models were determined using backward selection procedures with Akaike’s information criterion (AIC) as the stopping rule. Model discrimination was determined using Harrell’s concordance index (c index). Model calibration was determined graphically. Nomograms were used to present the final prediction models.