Reaching the last 10 percent out of school children: the role of AIDS

Abstract

This paper investigates the role of AIDS on children being out of school. Put differently, whether it is because of AIDS that children are out of school. The main data source was the Northern Uganda Survey of 2004 conducted by Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) between July and December 2004. The survey was meant to provide indicators to guide the monitoring and evaluation function of the NUSAF project period in 18 districts of Northern Uganda. We defined and identified ‘aids affected households’, used descriptive analysis as well as a multinomial specification. We further explored the role of poverty using changes in household asset value between 1992 and 2004. There is no conclusive evidence that children are out of school due to AIDS. AIDS has a marginal effect on children failing to continue in school but this is not statistically significant. However there is strong evidence that children are out of school because of a decline in household asset value. To reach children who have never attended school, rather than focusing on ‘AIDS affected households’, a much greater impact is expected from preventing major decline in ‘household asset value’.