Mathematical model for COVID-19 management in crowded settlements and high-activity areas
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Date
2021
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
International Journal of Dynamics and Control
Abstract
This paper develops and analyses a habitat area size dependent mathematical model to study the transmission dynamics of
COVID-19 in crowded settlements such as refugee camps, schools, markets and churches. The model quantifies the potential
impact of physical/social distancing and population density on the disease burden. Results reveal that with no fatalities and no
infected entrants, the reproduction numbers associated with asymptomatic and symptomatic cases are inversely proportional
to; the habitat area size, and the efforts employed in tracing and hospitalising these cases. The critical habitat area below which
the disease dies out is directly proportion to the time taken to identify and hospitalise infected individuals. Results also show
that disease persistence in the community is guaranteed even with minimal admission of infected individuals. Our results
further show that as the level of compliance to standard operating procedures (SOPs) increases, then the disease prevalence
peaks are greatly reduced and delayed. Therefore, proper adherence to SOPs such as use of masks, physical distancing
measures and effective contact tracing should be highly enforced in crowded settings if COVID-19 is to be mitigated.
Description
Keywords
Mathematical modelling, Standard operating procedures, COVID-19, Crowding, Critical area
Citation
Ssematimba, A., Nakakawa, J. N., Ssebuliba, J., & Mugisha, J. Y. (2021). Mathematical model for COVID-19 management in crowded settlements and high-activity areas. International Journal of Dynamics and Control, 9(4), 1358-1369. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40435-021-00781-9