Estimating epidemiological parameters using diagnostic testing data from low pathogenicity avian influenza infected turkey houses
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Date
2021
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Scientific reports
Abstract
Limiting spread of low pathogenicity avian influenza (LPAI) during an outbreak is critical to reduce
the negative impact on poultry producers and local economies. Mathematical models of disease
transmission can support outbreak control efforts by estimating relevant epidemiological parameters.
In this article, diagnostic testing data from each house on a premises infected during a LPAI H5N2
outbreak in the state of Minnesota in the United States in 2018 was used to estimate the time of virus
introduction and adequate contact rate, which determines the rate of disease spread. A well-defined
most likely time of virus introduction, and upper and lower 95% credibility intervals were estimated for
each house. The length of the 95% credibility intervals ranged from 11 to 22 with a mean of 17 days.
In some houses the contact rate estimates were also well-defined; however, the estimated upper 95%
credibility interval bound for the contact rate was occasionally dependent on the upper bound of the
prior distribution. The estimated modes ranged from 0.5 to 6.0 with a mean of 2.8 contacts per day.
These estimates can be improved with early detection, increased testing of monitored premises, and
combining the results of multiple barns that possess similar production systems.
Description
Keywords
Epidemiological parameters, Testing data, Pathogenicity avian, Turkey houses
Citation
Bonney, P. J., Malladi, S., Ssematimba, A., Spackman, E., Torchetti, M. K., Culhane, M., & Cardona, C. J. (2021). Estimating epidemiological parameters using diagnostic testing data from low pathogenicity avian influenza infected turkey houses. Scientific reports, 11(1), 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-81254-z