Spatial transmission of H5N2 highly pathogenic avian influenza between Minnesota poultry premises during the 2015 outbreak
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Date
2018
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
PLoS ONE
Abstract
The spatial spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N2 during the 2015 outbreak
in the U.S. state of Minnesota was analyzed through the estimation of a spatial transmission
kernel, which quantifies the infection hazard an infectious premises poses to an
uninfected premises some given distance away. Parameters were estimated using a maximum
likelihood method for the entire outbreak as well as for two phases defined by the daily
number of newly detected HPAI-positive premises. The results indicate both a strong
dependence of the likelihood of transmission on distance and a significant distance-independent
component of outbreak spread for the overall outbreak. The results further suggest
that HPAI spread differed during the later phase of the outbreak. The estimated spatial
transmission kernel was used to compare the Minnesota outbreak with previous HPAI outbreaks
in the Netherlands and Italy to contextualize the Minnesota transmission kernel
results and make additional inferences about HPAI transmission during the Minnesota outbreak.
Lastly, the spatial transmission kernel was used to identify high risk areas for HPAI
spread in Minnesota. Risk maps were also used to evaluate the potential impact of an early
marketing strategy implemented by poultry producers in a county in Minnesota during the
outbreak, with results providing evidence that the strategy was successful in reducing the
potential for HPAI spread.
Description
Keywords
Pathogenic avian influenza, Minnesota poultry
Citation
Bonney PJ, Malladi S, Boender GJ, Weaver JT, Ssematimba A, Halvorson DA, et al. (2018) Spatial transmission of H5N2 highly pathogenic avian influenza between Minnesota poultry premises during the 2015 outbreak. PLoS ONE 13(9): e0204262. https://doi.org/10.1371/ journal.pone.0204262