Impact of Landscape Management Scenarios on Ecosystem Service Values in Central Ethiopia
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Date
2022
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Land
Abstract
This study aimed at modeling scenarios of future land use and land cover (LULC) change
and estimating ecosystem service (ES) values for the year 2051 compared to 2021 in Central Ethiopia.
The future LULC changes for the year 2051 were simulated for four scenarios, namely Businessas-
Usual (BAU), Rapid Agricultural Expansion (RAE), Ecosystems Protection and Agricultural
Development (EPAD) and Landscape Ecosystems Restoration and Conservation (LERC). The four
LULC change scenarios were simulated based on anticipated assumptions that were derived from
existing spatial policies, a consultation workshop report on scenarios of agricultural development in
Ethiopia, suitability analysis, population growth analysis and expert knowledge of the study area
characteristics. We used a Multi-Layer Perceptron–Artificial Neuron Network (MLP–ANN) modelbased
projected LULC for the BAU scenario and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and
Tradeoffs (InVEST) model to generate RAE, EPAD and LERC scenarios in the study landscape. The
benefit transfer method was used to estimate the total ES values and for trade-off analysis. The result
showed that LULC changes in the study area varied across simulated scenarios compared to the base
year 2021. Under the BAU and RAE scenarios, cultivated land increased by 146,548 ha (22%) and
193,965 ha (29%), whereas forest, water body, wetland and shrub-bush land were reduced. However,
forest cover increased by 31,725 ha and 100,080 ha but bare land was reduced by 8466 ha (21%) and
10,379 ha (25%) under the EPAD and LERC scenarios. The forest cover annual rate of change was
3.2% and 6% under the EPAD and LERC scenarios. As a result, the total ES value increased by USD
24.5 and 78.5 million under the EPAD and LERC scenarios for the year 2051, whereas the total ES
value was reduced under the BAU and RAE scenarios by USD 27.1 and 73.2 million. The trade-offs
among ecosystem services were significantly synergized under the LERC scenario compared to
RAE. Therefore, EPAD and LERC could be used as a reference for sustainable landscape planning
and management. Landscape ecosystems restoration integrated with a sustainable agricultural
intensification approach would enable us to ensure the sustainability of both agricultural production
and ecosystem service synergies without negatively affecting the natural environment.
Description
Keywords
Landscape, Ecosystem services, Restoration, Scenarios, MLP–ANN, InVEST, Trade-offs
Citation
Biratu, A.A.; Bedadi, B.; Gebrehiwot, S.G.; Melesse, A.M.; Nebi, T.H.; Abera,W.; Tamene, L.; Egeru, A. Impact of Landscape Management Scenarios on Ecosystem Service Values in Central Ethiopia. Land 2022, 11, 1266. https:// doi.org/10.3390/land11081266