Spatially explicit uncertainty modeling of zoonotic pathogen distribution: a case of Listeria monocytogenes in New York State, USA
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Date
2017
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Applied Geomatics
Abstract
Listeria monocytogenes is a bacterium that is responsible for causing Listeria, a disease that has a wide range
of adverse effects such as meningitis, bacteremia, complications during pregnancy, and other fatal illnesses especially
among those whose immune systems are compromised. The
purpose of this study was to establish hotspot candidate sites
in New York State where the L. monocytogenes pathogen
could be found. Several suitability criteria which include proximity to water, pasture, forests, and urban development and
slope among others in New York State were considered in this
analysis. This study assessed which spatial habitat factors influence habitat suitability of the L. monocytogenes pathogen
in the forested areas of New York State. Multicriteria evaluation was used to integrate the different habitat factors using
their different weights expressed using probability distributions. Spatially explicit uncertainty and sensitivity analysis
(UA and SA) was carried out to examine the robustness of
habitat suitability analysis. Suitability maps were generated
and summarized using an average suitability map, a standard
deviation uncertainty map, and sensitivity maps. Results
showed that the shallowest depth to a wet soil layer (measured
annually) and proximity to water are the habitat factors which
contribute the most and individually to the distribution and
survival of this pathogen. The slope gradient is singly insignificant but influential when associated with other factors like
temperature, soil organic matter content, volume of water soil
can store, proximity to forest, urban development, and pasture
among others. It was established that water is the key habitat
factor that favors the survival of this pathogen. Also, the ability to spatially model zoonotic pathogen hotspots is important
in zoonoses control, informing and influencing policy. From
these results, it is important to maintain the water quality of the
water sources (lakes, rivers, ponds) and ensure that there is
limited runoff from slopes.
Description
Keywords
Spatial modeling, Listeria monocytogenes, Multi criteria evaluation, Uncertainty analysis (UA), Sensitivity analysis (SA)
Citation
Mwima, R., Gidudu, A., Mazimwe, A., Ligmann-Zielinska, A., Majalija, S., Khaitsa, M., ... & Bergholz, P. (2017). Spatially explicit uncertainty modeling of zoonotic pathogen distribution: a case of Listeria monocytogenes in New York State, USA. Applied Geomatics, 9, 27-41.DOI 10.1007/s12518-016-0177-4