African Swine Fever Detection and Transmission Estimates Using Homogeneous Versus Heterogeneous Model Formulation in Stochastic Simulations Within Pig Premises

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dc.contributor.authorSsematimba, Amos
dc.contributor.authorMalladi, Sasidhar
dc.contributor.authorBonney, Peter J.
dc.contributor.authorCharles, Kaitlyn M. St.
dc.contributor.authorBoyer, Timothy C.
dc.contributor.authorGoldsmith, Timothy
dc.contributor.authorCardona, Carol J.
dc.contributor.authorCorzo, Cesar A.
dc.contributor.authorCulhane, Marie R.
dc.date.accessioned2023-01-04T19:51:28Z
dc.date.available2023-01-04T19:51:28Z
dc.date.issued2022
dc.description.abstractThis study aimed to assess the impact on within-herd transmission dynamics of African swine fever (ASF) when the models used to simulate transmission assume there is homogeneous mixing of animals within a barn. Barn-level heterogeneity was explicitly captured using a stochastic, individual pig-based, heterogeneous transmission model that considers three types of infection transmission, 1) within-pen via nose-to-nose contact; 2) between-pen via nose-to-nose contact with pigs in adjacent pens; and 3) both between- and within-pen via distance independent mechanisms (e.g., via fomites). Predictions were compared between the heterogeneous and the homogeneous Gillespie models. Results showed that the predicted mean number of infectious pigs at specific time points differed greatly between the homogeneous and heterogeneous models for scenarios with low levels of between pen contacts via distance independent pathways and the differences between the two model predictions were more pronounced for the slow contact rate scenario. The heterogeneous transmission model results also showed that it may take significantly longer to detect ASF, particularly in large barns when transmission predominantly occurs via nose-to-nose contact between pigs in adjacent pens. The findings emphasize the need for completing preliminary explorations when working with homogeneous mixing models to ascertain their suitability to predict disease outcomes.en_US
dc.identifier.citationSsematimba, A., Malladi, S., Bonney, P. J., Charles, K. M. S., Boyer, T. C., Goldsmith, T., ... & Culhane, M. R. (2022). African swine fever detection and transmission estimates using homogeneous versus heterogeneous model formulation in stochastic simulations within pig premises. https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1420329/v1en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1420329/v1
dc.identifier.urihttps://nru.uncst.go.ug/handle/123456789/6807
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherResearch Squareen_US
dc.subjectAfrican swine feveren_US
dc.subjectGillespie algorithmen_US
dc.subjectHeterogeneityen_US
dc.subjectTransmission modelsen_US
dc.subjectHomogeneous mixingen_US
dc.titleAfrican Swine Fever Detection and Transmission Estimates Using Homogeneous Versus Heterogeneous Model Formulation in Stochastic Simulations Within Pig Premisesen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
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