Exploring the interplay between climate change and schistosomiasis transmission dynamics

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dc.contributor.authorTabo, Zadoki
dc.contributor.authorKalinda, Chester
dc.contributor.authorBreuer, Lutz
dc.contributor.authorAlbrecht, Christian
dc.date.accessioned2024-03-01T13:19:27Z
dc.date.available2024-03-01T13:19:27Z
dc.date.issued2024-03
dc.description.abstractSchistosomiasis, a neglected tropical disease caused by parasitic worms, poses a major public health challenge in economically disadvantaged regions, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. Climate factors, such as temperature and rainfall patterns, play a crucial role in the transmission dynamics of the disease. This study presents a deterministic model that aims to evaluate the temporal and seasonal transmission dynamics of schistosomiasis by examining the influence of temperature and rainfall over time. Equilibrium states are examined to ascertain their existence and stability employing the center manifold theory, while the basic reproduction number is calculated using the next-generation technique. To validate the model's applicability, demographic and climatological data from Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania, which are endemic East African countries situated in the tropical region, are utilized as a case study region. The findings of this study provide evidence that the transmission of schistosomiasis in human populations is significantly influenced by seasonal and monthly variations, with incidence rates varying across countries depending on the frequency of temperature and rainfall. Consequently, the region is marked by both schistosomiasis emergencies and re-emergences. Specifically, it is observed that monthly mean temperatures within the range of 22-27 °C create favorable conditions for the development of schistosomiasis and have a positive impact on the reproduction numbers. On the other hand, monthly maximum temperatures ranging from 27 to 33 °C have an adverse effect on transmission. Furthermore, through sensitivity analysis, it is projected that by the year 2050, factors such as the recruitment rate of snails, the presence of parasite egg-containing stools, and the rate of miracidia shedding per parasite egg will contribute significantly to the occurrence and control of schistosomiasis infections. This study highlights the significant influence of seasonal and monthly variations, driven by temperature and rainfall patterns, on the transmission dynamics of schistosomiasis. These findings underscore the importance of considering climate factors in the control and prevention strategies of schistosomiasis. Additionally, the projected impact of various factors on schistosomiasis infections by 2050 emphasizes the need for proactive measures to mitigate the disease's impact on vulnerable populations. Overall, this research provides valuable insights to anticipate future challenges and devise adaptive measures to address schistosomiasis transmission patterns.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipDAAD provided ZT with a PhD scholarship (Grant No. 57507871). As part of CK's postdoctoral training, he was awarded a scholarship from the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation (Grant No. ZMB1217528GF-P). There was no involvement of the funders in the design of the study, the collection or analysis of data, the decision to publish, or the preparation of the manuscript.en_US
dc.identifier.citationTabo, Zadoki, Chester Kalinda, Lutz Breuer, et al. 'Exploring the Interplay between Climate Change and Schistosomiasis Transmission Dynamics', Infectious Disease Modelling, vol. 9/no. 1, (2024), pp. 158-176.en_US
dc.identifier.issnISSN 2468-0427, 2468-2152
dc.identifier.issnEISSN 2468-0427
dc.identifier.urihttps://nru.uncst.go.ug/handle/123456789/9420
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherElsevier B.Ven_US
dc.subjectModeling; chistosomiasis transmission; Temperature; RainfallBasic ;;reproduction number; East Africaen_US
dc.titleExploring the interplay between climate change and schistosomiasis transmission dynamicsen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
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