Integrating Machine Learning and Geospatial Data for Mapping Socioeconomic Vulnerability to Urban Natural Hazard

Abstract

Rapid urbanization and climate change are increasing the risks associated with natural hazards, especially in cities where socio-economic disparities are significant. Current hazard risk assessment frameworks fail to consider socio-economic factors, which limits their ability to effectively address vulnerabilities at the community level. This study introduces a machine learning framework designed to assess flood susceptibility and socio-economic vulnerability, particularly in urban areas with limited data. Using Kigali, Rwanda, as a case study, we quantified socio-economic vulnerability through a composite index that includes indicators of sensitivity and adaptive capacity. We utilized a variety of data sources, such as demographic, environmental, and remotely sensing datasets, applying machine learning algorithms like Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Random Forest, Support Vector Machine (SVM), and XGBoost. Among these, MLP achieved the best predictive performance, with an AUC score of 0.902 and an F1-score of 0.86. The findings indicate spatial differences in socio-economic vulnerability, with central and southern Kigali showing greater vulnerability due to a mix of socio-economic challenges and high flood risk. The vulnerability maps created were validated against historical flood records, socio-economic research, and expert insights, confirming their accuracy and relevance for urban risk assessment. Additionally, we tested the framework’s scalability and adaptability in Kampala, Uganda, and Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, showing that making context-specific adjustments to the model improves its transferability. This study offers a solid, data-driven approach for combining assessments of flood susceptibility and socio-economic vulnerability, filling important gaps in urban resilience planning. The results support the advancement of risk-informed decision-making, especially in areas with limited access to detailed socio-economic information.

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