Geospatial Trends and Decadal Anomalies in Extreme Rainfall over Uganda, East Africa
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Date
2016
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Onyutha, C. (2016). Geospatial trends and decadal anomalies in extreme rainfall over Uganda, East Africa. Advances in Meteorology, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2016/6935912
Abstract
Trends and variability in series comprising the mean of fifteen highest daily rainfall intensities in each year were analyzed
considering entire Uganda.The data were extracted from high-resolution (0.5∘ × 0.5∘) gridded daily series of the Princeton Global
Forcings covering the period 1948–2008. Variability was analyzed using nonparametric anomaly indicator method and empirical
orthogonal functions. Possible drivers of the rainfall variability were investigated. Trends were analyzed using the cumulative rank
difference approach. Generally, rainfall was above the long-term mean from the mid-1950s to the late 1960s and again in the 1990s.
From around 1970 to the late 1980s, rainfall was characterized by a decrease. The first and second dominant modes of variability
correspond with the variation in Indian Ocean Dipole and North Atlantic Ocean index, respectively.The influence of Ni˜no 3 on the
rainfall variability of some parts of the country was also evident.The southern and northern parts had positive and negative trends,
respectively.The null hypothesis 𝐻0 (no trend) was collectively rejected at the significance level of 5% in the series from 7 out of
168 grid points. The insights from the findings of this study are vital for planning and management of risk-based water resources
applications.
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Keywords
Geospatial Trends, Decadal Anomalies, Rainfall, Uganda
Citation
Onyutha, C. (2016). Geospatial trends and decadal anomalies in extreme rainfall over Uganda, East Africa. Advances in Meteorology, 2016.