Probabilistic decision tools for determining impacts of agricultural development policy on household nutrition
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Date
2018
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Earth's Future
Abstract
Governments around the world have agreed to end hunger and food insecurity and to improve
global nutrition, largely through changes to agriculture and food systems. However, they are
faced with a lot of uncertainty when making policy decisions, since any agricultural changes will
influence social and biophysical systems, which could yield either positive or negative nutrition
outcomes. We outline a holistic probability modeling approach with Bayesian Network (BN)
models for nutritional impacts resulting from agricultural development policy. The approach
includes the elicitation of expert knowledge for impact model development, including sensitivity
analysis and value of information calculations. It aims at a generalizable methodology that can be applied in a wide range of contexts. To showcase this approach, we develop an impact model
of Vision 2040, Uganda’s development strategy, which, among other objectives, seeks to
transform the country’s agricultural landscape from traditional systems to large-scale commercial
agriculture. Model results suggest that Vision 2040 is likely to have negative outcomes for the
rural livelihoods it intends to support; it may have no appreciable influence on household hunger
but, by influencing preferences for and access to quality nutritional foods, may increase the
prevalence of micronutrient deficiency. The results highlight the trade offs that must be
negotiated when making decisions regarding agriculture for nutrition, and the capacity of BNs to
make these trade offs explicit. The work illustrates the value of BNs for supporting evidence based
agricultural development decisions.
Description
Keywords
Bayesian Networks, Probabilistic modeling, Decision Analysis, Nutrition, Hunger, Micronutrient deficiency
Citation
Whitney, C. W., Lanzanova, D., Muchiri, C., Shepherd, K. D., Rosenstock, T. S., Krawinkel, M., ... & Luedeling, E. (2018). Probabilistic decision tools for determining impacts of agricultural development policy on household nutrition. Earth's Future, 6(3), 359-372. doi: 10.1002/2017EF000765