Assisted migration to address climate change: recommendations for aspen reforestation in western Canada
Loading...
Date
2011
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Ecological applications
Abstract
Human-aided movement of species populations in large-scale reforestation
programs could be a potent and cost-effective climate change adaptation strategy. Such largescale
management interventions, however, tend to entail the risks of unintended consequences,
and we propose that three conditions should be met before implementing assisted migration in
reforestation programs: (1) evidence of a climate-related adaptational lag, (2) observed
biological impacts, and (3) robust model projections to target assisted migration efforts. In a
case study of aspen (Populus tremuloides Michaux.) we use reciprocal transplant experiments
to study adaptation of tree populations to local environments. Second, we monitor natural
aspen populations using the MODIS enhanced vegetation index as a proxy for forest health
and productivity. Last, we report results from bioclimate envelope models that predict suitable
habitat for locally adapted genotypes under observed and predicted climate change. The
combined results support assisted migration prescriptions and indicate that the risk of inaction
likely exceeds the risk associated with changing established management practices. However,
uncertainty in model projections also implies that we are restricted to a relatively short 20-year
planning horizon for prescribing seed movement in reforestation programs. We believe that
this study exemplifies a safe and realistic climate change adaptation strategy based on multiple
sources of information and some understanding of the uncertainty associated with
recommendations for assisted migration. Ad hoc migration prescriptions without a similar
level of supporting information should be avoided in reforestation programs.
Description
Keywords
Bioclimate envelope modeling, Climate change, Ecological genetics, Reforestation, Remote sensing, Seed transfer guidelines, Seed zones
Citation
Gray, L. K., Gylander, T., Mbogga, M. S., Chen, P. Y., & Hamann, A. (2011). Assisted migration to address climate change: recommendations for aspen reforestation in western Canada. Ecological applications, 21(5), 1591-1603.