Browsing by Author "Ssembatya, Vincent A."

Now showing 1 - 6 of 6
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    Estimating the Effect and Cost-Effectiveness of Facemasks in Reducing the Spread of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome- Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Uganda
    (CC-BY-ND 4.0 International license ., 2020) Nannyonga, Betty K.; Wanyenze, Rhoda K.; Kaleebu, Pontiano; Ssenkusu, John M.; Lutalo, Tom; Makumbi, Fredrick Edward; Kwizera, Arthur; Byakika, Pauline; Kirungi, Willford; Kyobe Bosa, Henry; Ssembatya, Vincent A.; Mwebesa, Henry; Atwine, Diana; Aceng, Jane Ruth; Woldermariamç, Yonas Tegegn
    Evidence that face masks provide effective protection against respiratory infections in the community is scarce. However, face masks are widely used by health workers as part of droplet precautions when caring for patients with respiratory infections. It would therefore be reasonable to suggest that consistent widespread use of face masks in the community could prevent further spread of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome-Coronavirus 2 (SARSCoV- 2). In this study we examine public face mask wearing in Uganda where a proportion wears masks to protect against acquiring, and the other to prevent from transmitting SARSCoV- 2. The objective of this study was to determine what percentage of the population would have to wear face masks to reduce susceptibility to and infectivity of SARS-COV-2 in Uganda, keeping the basic reproduction number below unity and/or flattening the curve. We used an SEIAQRD model for the analysis
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    Estimating the Effect and Cost-Effectiveness of Facemasks in Reducing the Spread of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome- Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Uganda
    (medRxiv., 2020) Nannyonga, Betty K.; Wanyenze, Rhoda K.; Kaleebu, Pontiano; Ssenkusu, John M.; Lutalo, Tom; Makumbi, Fredrick Edward; Kwizera, Arthur; Byakika, Pauline; Kirungi, Willford; Bosa, Henry Kyobe; Ssembatya, Vincent A.; Mwebesa, Henry; Atwine, Diana; Aceng, Jane Ruth; Woldermariam, Yonas Tegegn
    Evidence that face masks provide effective protection against respiratory infections in the community is scarce. However, face masks are widely used by health workers as part of droplet precautions when caring for patients with respiratory infections. It would therefore be reasonable to suggest that consistent widespread use of face masks in the community could prevent further spread of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome-Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). In this study we examine public face mask wearing in Uganda where a proportion wears masks to protect against acquiring, and the other to prevent from transmitting SARS-CoV-2. The objective of this study was to determine what percentage of the population would have to wear face masks to reduce susceptibility to and infectivity of SARS-COV-2 in Uganda, keeping the basic reproduction number below unity and/or flattening the curve. We used an SEIAQRD model for the analysis. Results show that implementation of facemasks has a relatively large impact on the size of the coronavirus epidemic in Uganda. We find that the critical mask adherence is 5 per 100 when 80% wear face masks. A cost-effective analysis shows that utilizing funds to provide 1 public mask to the population has a per capita compounded cost of USD 1.34. If provision of face masks is done simultaneously with supportive care, the per capita compounded cost is USD 1.965, while for the case of only treatment and no provision of face masks costs each Ugandan USD 4.0579. We conclude that since it is hard to achieve a 100% adherence to face masks, government might consider provision of face masks in conjunction with provision of care.
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    Infodemic: How an Epidemic of Misinformation Could Lead to a High Number of the Novel Corona Virus Disease Cases in Uganda
    (Preprints, 2020) Nannyonga, Betty K.; Wanyeze, Rhoda K.; Kaleebu, Pontiano; Ssenkusu, John M.; Ssengooba, Freddie; Lutalo, Tom; Kirungi, Willford; Makumbi, Fredrick Edward; Bosa, Henry Kyobe; Ssembatya, Vincent A.; Mwebesa, Henry; Atwine, Diana; Aceng, Jane Ruth; Woldermariam, Yonas Tegegn
    Misinformation during the COVID-19 outbreak has shaped our perception of the disease. Some people thinkthe disease is a bioweapon while others are convinced that it is a hoax. Heightened anxiety often producesfearful rumors, some of which are absurd while others seem plausible and are laced with some truths. But, how does misinformation affect disease spread? In this paper, we construct a mathematical model parameterized by Ugandan data, to study the effect of misinformation on community COVID-19 spread. The analysis shows that misinformation leads to high number of COVID-19 cases in a community, and the effect is highest in the rumour initiators and spreaders. This analysis underscores the importance of addressing misinformation in COVID risk communication.
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    Productivity in academia An assessment of causal linkages between output and outcome indicators
    (Quality Assurance in Education, 2015) Wamala, Robert; Ssembatya, Vincent A.
    The purpose of this paper is to investigate causal linkages between output and outcome indicators of productivity in academia. Design/methodology/approach – The duration of teaching service and the number of graduate students supervised to completion were adopted as output indicators of productivity. Equivalent outcome indicators were the number of (co)authored books (including book chapters and monographs) and journal articles, respectively. In the investigations, a structural equation modeling approach was adopted. Findings – The number of students supervised to completion directly impact the number of (co)authored articles (p 0.05). The duration of teaching service indirectly influences (co)authored articles by directly impacting the number of students supervised to completion (p 0.05). Research limitations/implications – The causal linkages between the indicators of productivity are an indication of the level of research activity of academia. However, the study does not provide an exhaustive assessment of all indicators of productivity in academia. Originality/value – Unlike literature on the subject area that is focused on factors influencing productivity in academia, this study demonstrates casual relationships between the indicators of productivity.
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    Scholarly Productivity In Developing Countries: An Analysis Of Levels And Patterns Among Doctoral Holders In Uganda
    (Contemporary Issues in Education Research, 2013) Wamala, Robert; Ssembatya, Vincent A.
    Doctoral holders are considered to be key actors in the creation of innovation and knowledge. However, this generalization may not hold true for doctoral holders in all countries. This study sought to assess the scholarly productivity of these highly qualified individuals in Uganda. The investigation is based on data sourced from the 2012 Careers and Productivity of Doctoral Holders (CDH) Survey conducted in the country. The data adopted comprise a total of 534 records of doctoral holders who were 70 years or younger by 2010 and living permanently or domiciled in Uganda. Journal Article(s) and book(s) (co)authored were adopted in this study as measures of productivity of a doctoral holder. The status and pattern of (co)authored journal article(s) and/or book(s) were assessed by doctoral holder characteristics using the Pearson Chisquare Test and Complementary Log-log regression. The number of (co)authored journal articles and books (including book chapters and monographs) was assessed by doctoral holder characteristics using the Kruskal-Wallis test and Poisson regression. In the results, the proportion of doctoral holders (29.2%) who had (co)authored journal article(s) and/or book(s) by the time of the study points to low scholarly productivity of these highly qualified individuals in the country. Though doctoral graduates of other African universities and those from international universities were more likely to have (co)authored article(s) and/or book(s), the number of (co)authored articles was significantly higher among graduates of Ugandan institutions. Further, the number of (co)authored articles was significantly higher among the males and doctoral holders who graduated before 2000. However, no significant variations in the number of (co)authored books were noted among doctoral holder characteristics. Nevertheless, the low scholarly productivity of doctoral holders in Uganda is certainly a mirror reflection of the situation in many developing countries.
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    The Ugandan Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome -Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Model: A Data Driven Approach to Estimate Risk
    (medRxiv, 2020) Nannyonga, Betty; Kyobe Bosa, Henry; Woldermariam, Yonas T.; Kaleebu, Pontiano; Ssenkusu, John M.; Lutalo, Tom; Kirungi, Willford; Makumbi, Fredrick E.; Ssembatya, Vincent A.; Mwebesa, Henry G.; Atwine, Diana; Aceng, Jane R.; Wanyenze, Rhoda K.
    The first case of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome-Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was identified on March 21, 2020, in Uganda. The number of cases increased to 8,287 by September 30, 2020. By May throughout June, most of the cases were predominantly imported cases of truck drivers from neighbouring countries. Uganda responded with various restrictions and interventions including lockdown, physical distancing, hand hygiene, and use of face masks in public, to control the growth rate of the outbreak. By end of September 2020, Uganda had transitioned into community transmissions and most of the reported cases were locals contacts and alerts. This study assessed risks associated with SARS-CoV-2 in Uganda, and presents estimates of the reproduction ratio in real time. An optimal control analysis was performed to determine how long the current mitigation measures such as controlling the exposure in communities, rapid detection, confirmation and contact tracing, partial lockdown of the vulnerable groups and control at the porous boarders, could be implemented and at what cost. Methods: The daily confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 in Uganda were extracted from publicly available sources. Using the data, relative risks for age, gender, and geographical location were determined. Four approaches were used to forecast SARS-CoV-2 in Uganda namely linear exponential, nonlinear exponential, logistic and a deterministic model.