Browsing by Author "Ssebulime, Kurayish"

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    Asymmetric Analysis of the Impact of Taxation on Unemployment in Uganda
    (East African Journal of Business and Economics, 2024) Mukoki, James; Mukisa, Ibrahim; Ssebulime, Kurayish; Musoke, Edward
    Uganda, like most developing countries, has one of the highest tax rates not only in Africa but also in the world. This explains the numerous challenges faced in mobilizing sufficient revenues to fight poverty and improve people’s economic welfare. We, therefore, use a more recent nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model (NARDL) to analyze the impact of higher taxes on the unemployment rate in Uganda. Results indicate that total Unemployment in Uganda is a negative function of both an increase in tax and a negative change in tax. Specifically, if taxes increase, then unemployment decreases by almost 3.9%, and if taxes decrease, then unemployment increases by about 4.9%. Also, the unemployment level decreased by 0.06% with a decrease in the gross capital formation (GFKF). Finally, unemployment also decreases with a rise in GDP and decreases with a decrease in GDP. In a nutshell, Uganda lacks the possibility of making the economy more productive and thus only relies on taxing an already overtaxed economy. Overtaxing an economy kills the possibility of ever building a formidable capital base that can stimulate economic growth and reduce poverty and unemployment. The government, therefore, should cut taxes and level the playing field regarding tax policies for foreign and home-grown investors. Finally, policymakers should also aim to unlock the potential of the informal sector not only to create jobs but also to widen the tax base
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    Fiscal Policy, Uncertainty and Output Growth in Uganda: 1980-2020
    (East African Journal of Business and Economics, 2023) Ssebulime, Kurayish; Mukisa, Ibrahim
    Does uncertainty necessarily change the way in which fiscal policy affects output growth in Uganda? We provide an empirical response to this fundamental question using the latest datasets and a rigorous econometric practice. Fiscal policy is often manipulated in many countries as one of the means to provide counter-cyclical stimulus over the cycle of uncertainties. Indeed, fiscal policy operations frequently vary with uncertainty sequence and this introduces bidirectional interactions between fiscal policy, uncertainty and output growth. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model, we show that tax revenue and expenditure are the most affected fiscal policy measures in the presence of uncertainty, while borrowing is the least affected both in the short and long-run. Therefore, unless government macroeconomic frameworks fully incorporate economic uncertainties into projections, the fragility of rising global and domestic uncertainty is bound to cause large and significant divergencies between the anticipated and the actual growth outturn. We therefore recommend the need to use borrowing avenue in the most optimal means to stimulate and sustain growth. While tax revenues have proved to spur growth both in the short and the long-run, the impact is bound to shrink in the face of uncertainty.
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    The Changing Employment Landscape in Uganda
    (African Journals Online (AJOL), 2023) Ssebulime, Kurayish; Okumu, Ibrahim Mike; Bbaale, Edward
    The employment landscape in Uganda and across the globe has continued to change at an unprecedented rate. This has mostly manifested in employment shifts within and between sectors. A large share of Labour force has shifted towards the service sub-sectors with a corresponding shift away from agriculture and other goods-producing sectors. Employment intensities of growth were estimated in this study to ascertain whether employment shifts have occurred in Uganda and also establish the causes of the variations using multivariate regression and autoregressive distributed lag modelling. The study established that there is no evidence of sectoral employment shifts in Uganda. The agriculture sector has the least employment intensity of growth followed by the industry and the service sectors. Trade and repairs, arts, entertainment & recreation, cash crop, food crop, construction, and manufacturing have the highest employment intensity of growth.