Browsing by Author "Singer, Joel"

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    Prediction models for post-discharge mortality among under-five children with suspected sepsis in Uganda: A multicohort analysis
    (Public Library of Science, 2024-05) Wiens, Matthew O; Nguyen, Vuong; Bone, Jeffrey N.; Kumbakumba, Elias; Businge, Stephen; Tagoola, Abner; Sherine, Sheila Oyella; Byaruhanga, Emmanuel; Ssemwanga, Edward; Barigye, Celestine; Nsungwa, Jesca; Olaro, Charles; Ansermino, J. Mark; Kissoon, Niranjan; Singer, Joel; Larson, Charles P.; Lavoie, Pascal M; Dunsmuir, Dustin; Moschovis, Peter P.; Novakowski, Stefanie; Komugisha, Clare; Tayebwa, Mellon; Mwesigwa, Douglas; Knappett, Martina; West, Nicholas; Mugisha, Nathan Kenya; Kabakyenga, Jerome
    In many low-income countries, over five percent of hospitalized children die following hospital discharge. The lack of available tools to identify those at risk of post-discharge mortality has limited the ability to make progress towards improving outcomes. We aimed to develop algorithms designed to predict post-discharge mortality among children admitted with suspected sepsis. Four prospective cohort studies of children in two age groups (0–6 and 6–60 months) were conducted between 2012–2021 in six Ugandan hospitals. Prediction models were derived for six-months post-discharge mortality, based on candidate predictors collected at admission, each with a maximum of eight variables, and internally validated using 10-fold cross-validation. 8,810 children were enrolled: 470 (5.3%) died in hospital; 257 (7.7%) and 233 (4.8%) post-discharge deaths occurred in the 0-6-month and 6-60-month age groups, respectively. The primary models had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.77 (95%CI 0.74–0.80) for 0-6-month-olds and 0.75 (95%CI 0.72–0.79) for 6-60-month-olds; mean AUROCs among the 10 cross-validation folds were 0.75 and 0.73, respectively. Calibration across risk strata was good: Brier scores were 0.07 and 0.04, respectively. The most important variables included anthropometry and oxygen saturation. Additional variables included: illness duration, jaundice-age interaction, and a bulging fontanelle among 0-6-month-olds; and prior admissions, coma score, temperature, age-respiratory rate interaction, and HIV status among 6-60-month-olds. Simple prediction models at admission with suspected sepsis can identify children at risk of post-discharge mortality. Further external validation is recommended for different contexts. Models can be digitally integrated into existing processes to improve peri-discharge care as children transition from the hospital to the community.
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    Uptake of community-based, self-collected HPV testing vs visual inspection with acetic acid for cervical cancer screening in Kampala, Uganda: preliminary results of a randomised controlled trial
    (Tropical Medicine and International Health, 2015) Moses, Erin; Pedersen, Heather N.; Mitchel, Sheona M.; Sekikubo, Musa; Mwesigwa, David; Singer, Joel; Biryabarema, Christine; Byamugisha, Josaphat K; Money, Deborah M.; Ogilvie, Gina S.
    objectives To compare two cervical cancer screening methods: community-based self-collection of high-risk human papillomavirus (HR-HPV) testing and visual inspection with acetic acid (VIA). methods Pilot randomised controlled trial of 500 women aged 30–65 in the community of Kisenyi, Uganda. Women randomised to self-collection-based HR-HPV testing provided a cervico-vaginal swab for HR-HPV, and results were provided by phone after laboratory testing. Women who tested HPV positive were referred for VIA at the local health unit. Women randomised to VIA underwent screening at the local health unit, where women who tested positive with VIA were provided cryotherapy at time of screening, as per local standard of care. Women were referred for colposcopy when indicated. Outcome measures were uptake of screening, HR-HPV prevalence, VIA result and treatment rates. results In the HR-HPV arm, 248 of 250 (p < 0.01) women provided samples, while in the VIA arm, 121 of 250 (48.4%) women attended screening. Among the 73 of 248 HR-HPV-positive women, 45.2% (N = 33) attended VIA screening for follow-up, 21.2% (N = 7) of whom screened positive; five received treatment and two were missing clinical follow-up records. Of the 121 women in the VIA arm who attended screening, 13.2% (N = 16) screened positive; seven received cryotherapy, three refused treatment, five were referred to colposcopy; and one woman had suspected cervical cancer and received treatment after confirmatory testing. conclusions This pilot study demonstrated trial feasibility and willingness of the women to participate and be randomised successfully into the two arms. Self-collection-based cervical cancer screening had a higher uptake than VIA.