Browsing by Author "Shinyekwa, Isaac M.B."

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    Has the Common External Tariff Sensitive list of Products for the EAC Generated Intra-export Trade?
    (Economic Policy Research Centre, 2016) Shinyekwa, Isaac M.B.; Munu, Martin Luther; Katunze, Miriam
    The study, aimed at establishing whether the protection given to the list of sensitive products since 2005: has increased the EAC regional capacity to produce, reduced the importation of the same products from the rest of the world, increased intra-EAC trade, and improved welfare. Results suggest that although intra-EAC trade increased since 2005, the imports of the same products from outside the region even increased more creating a huge negative trade balance. This suggests that there is deficiency in regional capacity to produce these products within the bloc, therefore effective protection was not adequately achieved by the high tariffs imposed on the sensitive list of products.
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    Within the EAC, which countries stand to benefit from the implementation of the AfCFTA
    (Economic Policy Research Centre, 2020) Bulime, Enock N.W.; Nattabi, Aida K.; Shinyekwa, Isaac M.B.
    The implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) will affect EAC countries in terms of tax revenues, trade volumes and poverty. Estimates paint a mixed picture among specific EAC economies regarding the increase in demand following the reduction in tariffs, also known as trade effect. Burundi has the most considerable total trade effect of US$ 9.5 million, followed by Kenya with US$ 5.2 million and Uganda with US$ 4.2 million. On the other hand,Tanzania and Rwanda register adverse total trade effects. All the EAC countries incur tariff revenue losses; for instance, Kenya incurs US$ 14.2 million loss followed by Uganda with a US$ 13.5 million loss. Whereas Uganda and Burundi experience positive welfare effects, Kenya, Tanzania and Rwanda experience negative welfare effects. To benefit from the AfCFTA, EAC economies need to (i) increase competitiveness to mitigate the negative impact of trade diversion (ii) pursue policies that promote industrialisation and (iii) compensate for the customs revenue loss by leveraging the envisaged increase in the trade volumes and value for other taxes.