Browsing by Author "Rutazaana, Damian"

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    Associations between environmental covariates and malaria incidence in high transmission settings of Uganda: A distributed non-linear lagged ecological analysis
    (Research Square, 2021) Okiring, Jaffer; Routledge, Isobel; Esptein, Adrienne; Namuganga, Jane F.; Kamya, Emmanuel V.; Odei Obeng-Amoako, Gloria; Maiteki-Sebuguzi, Catherine; Rutazaana, Damian; Kalyango, Joan N.; Kamya, Moses R.; Dorsey, Grant; Wesonga, Ronald; Kiwuwa, Steven M.; Nankabirwa, Joaniter I.
    Environmental factors such as temperature, rainfall, and vegetation cover play a critical role in malaria transmission. However, quantifying the relationships between environmental factors and measures of disease burden relevant for public health can be complex as effects are often non-linear and subject to temporal lags between when changes in environmental factors lead to changes in the incidence of symptomatic malaria. The study aim was to investigate the associations between environmental covariates and malaria incidence in high transmission settings of Uganda. Methods This study leveraged data from seven malaria reference centres (MRCs) located in high transmission settings of Uganda over a 24-month period (January 2019 - December 2020). Estimates of monthly malaria incidence (MI) were derived from MRCs’ catchment areas. Environmental data including monthy average measures of temperature, rainfall, and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) were obtained from remote sensing sources. A distributed non-linear lagged model was used to investigate the quantitative relationship between environmental covariates and malaria incidence. Results Overall, the median (range) monthly temperature was 30oC (26-47), rainfall 133.0 mm (3.0-247), NDVI 0.66 (0.24-0.80) and MI was 790 per 1000 person-years (73-3973). A non-linear relationship between environmental covariates and malaria incidence was observed. An average monthly temperature of 35oC was associated with significant increases in malaria incidence compared to the median observed temperature (30oC) at month lag 2 (IRR: 2.00, 95% CI: 1.42-2.83) and the cumulative increases in MI significantly at month lags 1-4, with the highest cumulative IRR of 8.16 (95% CI: 3.41-20.26) at lag month 4. An average monthly rainfall of 200mm was associated with significant increases in malaria incidence compared to the median observed rainfall (133mm) at lag month 0 (IRR: 1.24, 95% CI: 1.01-1.52) and the cumulative IRR increases of malaria at month lags 1-4, with the highest cumulative IRR of 1.99(95% CI: 1.22-2.27) at lag month 4. An average NVDI of 0.72 was associated with significant cumulative increases in IRR of malaria as compared to the median observed NDVI (0.66) at month lag 2-4, with the highest cumulative IRR of 1.57(95% CI: 1.09-2.25) at lag month 4. The rate of increase in cumulative IRR of malaria was highest within lag months 1-2 as compared to lag months 3-4 for all the environmental covariates. Conclusions In high-malaria transmission settings, high values of environmental covariates were associated with cumulative increases in the incidence of malaria, with peak associations occurring after variable lag times. The complex associations identified are valuable for designing strategies for early warning, prevention, and control of seasonal malaria surges and epidemics.
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    Changing malaria fever test positivity among paediatric admissions to Tororo district hospital, Uganda 2012–2019
    (Malaria journal, 2020) Mpimbaza, Arthur; Sserwanga, Asadu; Rutazaana, Damian; Kapisi, James; Walemwa, Richard; Suiyanka, Laurissa; Kyalo, David; Kamya, Moses; Opigo, Jimmy; Snow, Robert W.
    The World Health Organization (WHO) promotes long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLIN) and indoor residual house-spraying (IRS) for malaria control in endemic countries. However, long-term impact data of vector control interventions is rarely measured empirically. Methods: Surveillance data was collected from paediatric admissions at Tororo district hospital for the period January 2012 to December 2019, during which LLIN and IRS campaigns were implemented in the district. Malaria test positivity rate (TPR) among febrile admissions aged 1 month to 14 years was aggregated at baseline and three intervention periods (first LLIN campaign; Bendiocarb IRS; and Actellic IRS + second LLIN campaign) and compared using before-and-after analysis. Interrupted time-series analysis (ITSA) was used to determine the effect of IRS (Bendiocarb + Actellic) with the second LLIN campaign on monthly TPR compared to the combined baseline and first LLIN campaign periods controlling for age, rainfall, type of malaria test performed. The mean and median ages were examined between intervention intervals and as trend since January 2012. Results: Among 28,049 febrile admissions between January 2012 and December 2019, TPR decreased from 60% at baseline (January 2012–October 2013) to 31% during the final period of Actellic IRS and LLIN (June 2016–December 2019). Comparing intervention intervals to the baseline TPR (60.3%), TPR was higher during the first LLIN period (67.3%, difference 7.0%; 95% CI 5.2%, 8.8%, p < 0.001), and lower during the Bendiocarb IRS (43.5%, difference − 16.8%; 95% CI − 18.7%, − 14.9%) and Actellic IRS (31.3%, difference − 29.0%; 95% CI − 30.3%, − 27.6%, p < 0.001) periods. ITSA confirmed a significant decrease in the level and trend of TPR during the IRS (Bendicarb + Actellic) with the second LLIN period compared to the pre-IRS (baseline + first LLIN) period. The age of children with positive test results significantly increased with time from a mean of 24 months at baseline to 39 months during the final IRS and LLIN period. Conclusion: IRS can have a dramatic impact on hospital paediatric admissions harbouring malaria infection. The sustained expansion of effective vector control leads to an increase in the age of malaria positive febrile paediatric admissions. However, despite large reductions, malaria test-positive admissions continued to be concentrated in children aged under five years. Despite high coverage of IRS and LLIN, these vector control measures failed to interrupt transmission in Tororo district. Using simple, cost-effective hospital surveillance, it is possible to monitor the public health impacts of IRS in combination with LLIN.
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    The impact of stopping and starting indoor residual spraying on malaria burden in Uganda
    (Nature communications, 2021) Namuganga, Jane F.; Epstein, Adrienne; Nankabirwa, Joaniter I.; Mpimbaza, Arthur; Kiggundu, Moses; Sserwanga, Asadu; Kapisi, James; Arinaitwe, Emmanuel; Gonahasa, Samuel; Opigo, Jimmy; Ebong, Chris; Staedke, Sarah G.; Shililu, Josephat; Okia, Michael; Rutazaana, Damian; Maiteki-Sebuguzi, Catherine; Belay, Kassahun; Kamya, Moses R.; Dorsey, Grant; Rodriguez-Barraquer, Isabel
    The scale-up of malaria control efforts has led to marked reductions in malaria burden over the past twenty years, but progress has slowed. Implementation of indoor residual spraying (IRS) of insecticide, a proven vector control intervention, has been limited and difficult to sustain partly because questions remain on its added impact over widely accepted interventions such as bed nets. Using data from 14 enhanced surveillance health facilities in Uganda, a country with high bed net coverage yet high malaria burden, we estimate the impact of starting and stopping IRS on changes in malaria incidence. We show that stopping IRS was associated with a 5-fold increase in malaria incidence within 10 months, but reinstating IRS was associated with an over 5-fold decrease within 8 months. In areas where IRS was initiated and sustained, malaria incidence dropped by 85% after year 4. IRS could play a critical role in achieving global malaria targets, particularly in areas where progress has stalled.
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    Rapid shifts in the age‑specific burden of malaria following successful control interventions in four regions of Uganda
    (Malaria journal, 2020) Kigozi, Simon P.; Kigozi, Ruth N.; Epstein, Adrienne; Mpimbaza, Arthur; Sserwanga, Asadu; Yeka, Adoke; Nankabirwa, Joaniter I.; Halliday, Katherine; Pullan, Rachel L.; Rutazaana, Damian; Sebuguzi, Catherine M.; Opigo, Jimmy; Kamya, Moses R.; Staedke, Sarah G.; Dorsey, Grant; Greenhouse, Bryan; Rodriguez‑Barraquer, Isabel
    Malaria control using long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and indoor residual spraying of insecticide (IRS) has been associated with reduced transmission throughout Africa. However, the impact of transmission reduction on the age distribution of malaria cases remains unclear. Methods: Over a 10-year period (January 2009 to July 2018), outpatient surveillance data from four health facilities in Uganda were used to estimate the impact of control interventions on temporal changes in the age distribution of malaria cases using multinomial regression. Interventions included mass distribution of LLINs at all sites and IRS at two sites. Results: Overall, 896,550 patient visits were included in the study; 211,632 aged < 5 years, 171,166 aged 5–15 years and 513,752 > 15 years. Over time, the age distribution of patients not suspected of malaria and those malaria negative either declined or remained the same across all sites. In contrast, the age distribution of suspected and confirmed malaria cases increased across all four sites. In the two LLINs-only sites, the proportion of malaria cases in < 5 years decreased from 31 to 16% and 35 to 25%, respectively. In the two sites receiving LLINs plus IRS, these proportions decreased from 58 to 30% and 64 to 47%, respectively. Similarly, in the LLINs-only sites, the proportion of malaria cases > 15 years increased from 40 to 61% and 29 to 39%, respectively. In the sites receiving LLINs plus IRS, these proportions increased from 19 to 44% and 18 to 31%, respectively. Conclusions: These findings demonstrate a shift in the burden of malaria from younger to older individuals following implementation of successful control interventions, which has important implications for malaria prevention, surveillance, case management and control strategies.