Browsing by Author "Nakamya, Miria"

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    Ethanol for an Agriculture-based Developing Economy: A computable general equilibrium assessment for Uganda
    (Energy for Sustainable Development, 2020) Nakamya, Miria; Romstad, Eirik
    This study uses a static computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to examine the potential economic impacts of ethanol production in Uganda. We introduce an ethanol sector in the 2016/17 Uganda's social accounting matrix (SAM) using maize, cassava, sugarcane, and molasses as feedstocks. Furthermore, we evaluate the suitability of each feedstock. By simulating a 10% blending mandate, we find that factor employment and total output would increase, with a sluggish rise in commodity prices. Real GDP would grow moderately, and household income increase, mostly for the rural households. Household welfare would decline because of a counter-financing tax on gasoline. A reduction in gasoline imports is likely to improve the trade balance, and despite the ensuing decline in import tax revenues, government income would still rise. Our results are suggestive of ethanol production as a potential pro-poor project for Uganda. Both sugarcane and maize are more growth-enhancing compared to cassava. The use of only molasses from the sugar industry may result in negative impacts since it is already an input in other activities. We also observe that using an average of multiple feedstocks would be more sustainable. Moreover, it would allow a more balanced growth while reducing upward price pressures.
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    How Sustainable are Biofuels in a Natural Resource-Dependent Economy?
    (Energy for Sustainable Development, 2022) Nakamya, Miria
    For biofuels to promote growth in low-income agriculture-dependent economies, sustainability should be at the forefront of their biofuel programs. The high dependence on natural resources exposes such economies to resource misuse and environmental mismanagement risks. This research uses the case study of Uganda to assess the land, energy, water, and carbon footprints of maize, cassava, and sugarcane ethanol. All three pathways have positive energy balances, and the carbon footprints range between 0.89–3.12, 0.85–2.19, and 0.24–0.49 kg CO2eq/L of maize, cassava, and sugarcane ethanol, respectively. It would take about 15 years for maize ethanol, 14 for cassava ethanol, and 6 for sugarcane ethanol to break even with reference to gasoline if feedstocks were produced on converted grassland. Sugarcane ethanol is superior to maize and cassava ethanol, and its benefits derive from the carbon-neutral co-product electricity and a relatively higher ethanol yield per hectare. The study findings flag the ethanol processing stage and feedstock farming as key emission hotspots. They also reflect the emissions-reducing potential of ethanol exhibited by a decline in national emissions. Land requirements are minimal, and this demand diminishes with the improvement in crop yields. Overall, there are high prospects of economic and environmental gains. However, agricultural investment and immediate attention to poor crop yields are required alongside a regulated framework and the promotion of low-carbon energy sources.