Browsing by Author "Mukwaya, Paul Isolo"

Now showing 1 - 7 of 7
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    Determinants of malaria infections among children in refugee settlements in Uganda. Analysis of data from Uganda malaria indicator survey, 2018-19
    (Analysis of data from Uganda malaria indicator survey, 2023) Musoke, Henry S.; Liang, Song; Mukwaya, Paul Isolo; Mugagga, Frank; Swahn, Monica; Nseka, Denis; Wasswa, Hannington; Kayima, Patrick
    Globally, 5% of 247 million global malaria cases are reported Uganda which is also one of the top refugee hosting countries in Africa, with 1.36 million refugees currently. Although malaria is an emerging challenge for humanitarian response in refugee settlements, little is known about its risk factors. The study analysed data from the 2018-19 Uganda Malaria Indicator Survey (UMIS) to determine the factors associated with malaria infections among refugee children under ve years of age.
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    A Google Earth-GIS based approach to examine the potential of the current rainwater harvesting practices to meet water demands in Mityana district, Uganda
    (PLOS Water, 2022) Nanteza, Jamiat; Thomas, Brian; Kisembe, Jesse; Nakabugo, Rhoda; Mukwaya, Paul Isolo; Rodell, Mathew
    Rainwater harvesting (RWH) has become an integral part of global efforts to improve water access. Despite the increasing adoption of RWH in Uganda, there remains a significant knowledge gap in the assessment of RWH systems to meet water demands. In this study, a simplified methodology to estimate rainwater harvesting potential (RWHP) as a function of mean seasonal rainfall and rooftop area, generated using Google Earth and GIS tools is applied. Desired tank storage (DTS) capacities based on user population, demand and dry period lengths, were compared with RWHP to assess whether rooftop areas and tank storage can sustainably supply water for use during the March—May (MAM) and September-November (SON) 90-day dry periods, for three demand levels (i.e. for drinking and cooking (15 litres per capita per day (l/c/d)); for drinking, cooking and hand washing (20 l/c/d); and for drinking, cooking, hand washing, bathing and laundry (50 l/c/d)). Our findings document minimum catchment areas of 60m2 to have rainwater harvesting potential that can sustain households for 90-day dry periods for all three demand levels. However, considering their storage capacities, 25%, 48% and 97% of the existing RWHTs (with storage capacities below 8,000, 10,000 and 20,000 litres respectively) are unable to meet the demand of 15 l/c/d, 20 l/c/d and 50 l/c/d respectively for a 90-day dry period. The results document that the existing storage systems are under-sized for estimated water use under 50 l/c/d demand scenarios. Costs of between 2,000,000–4,500,000 Ugandan shillings (~ 600–1, 250 USD) would be needed to increase existing tank capacities to meet the 50 l/c/d demands for a 90-day dry period. These findings document onerous financial costs to achieve rainwater harvesting potential, meaning that households in Mityana district may have to resort to other sources of water during times of shortage.
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    Household resilience to climate change hazards in Uganda
    (Emerald, 2020-01-20) Oriangi, George; Albrecht, Frederike; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Bamutaze, Yazidhi; Mukwaya, Paul Isolo; Ardö, Jonas; Pilesjö, Petter
    Purpose – As climate change shocks and stresses increasingly affect urban areas in developing countries, resilience is imperative for the purposes of preparation, recovery and adaptation. This study aims to investigate demographic characteristics and social networks that influence the household capacity to prepare, recover and adapt when faced with prolonged droughts or erratic rainfall events in Mbale municipality in Eastern Uganda. Design/methodology/approach – A cross-sectional research design was used to elicit subjective opinions. Previous studies indicate the importance of subjective approaches for measuring social resilience but their use has not been well explored in the context of quantifying urban resilience to climate change shocks and stresses. This study uses 389 structured household interviews to capture demographic characteristics, social networks and resilience capacities. Descriptive and inferential statistics were used for analysis. Findings – The ability of low-income households to meet their daily expenditure needs, household size, and networks with relatives and non government organizations (NGOs) were significant determinants of preparedness, recovery and adaptation to prolonged droughts or erratic rainfall events. Practical implications – The results imply that policymakers and practitioners have an important role vis-à-vis encouraging activities that boost the ability of households to meet their daily expenditure needs, promoting small household size and reinforcing social networks that enhance household resilience. Originality/value – Even the low-income households are substantially more likely to prepare for and recover from prolonged droughts or erratic rainfall events if they can meet their daily expenditure needs. This finding is noteworthy because the poorest in society are generally the most vulnerable to hazards.
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    Integrated modelling of the determinants of household food insecurity during the 2020– 2021 COVID-19 lockdown in Uganda
    (BioMed Central, 2024-11) Semakula, Henry Musoke; Liang, Song; McKune, Sarah Lindley; Mukwaya, Paul Isolo; Mugagga, Frank; Nseka, Denis; Wasswa, Hannington; Kayima, Patrick; Achuu, Simon Peter; Mwendwa, Patrick; Nakato, Jovia
    Background-The determinants of household food insecurity (HFI) do not act in isolation, and are known to be complex, stochastic, nonlinear, and multidimensional. Despite this being especially true in periods of shocks, studies that focus on integrated modelling of the HFI determinants during the COVID-19 lockdown are scarce, with no available evidence on Uganda. The main objective of this study was to develop Bayesian belief network (BBN) models to analyse, rank, and illustrate the conceptual reasoning, and complex causal relationships among the determinants of HFI during the COVID-19 lockdown. This study was based on seven rounds of Uganda’s High-Frequency Phone Surveys data sets collected during the lockdown. A total of 15,032 households, 17 independent determinants of HFI, and 8 food security indicators were used in this study. Metrics of sensitivity, and prediction performance were used to evaluate models’ accuracy.ResultsEight BBN models were developed for each food insecurity indicator. The accuracy rates of the models ranged between 70.5% and 93.5%, with an average accuracy rate of 78.5%, indicating excellent predictive performance in identifying the determinants of HFI correctly. Our results revealed that approximately 42.2% of the sampled households (n = 15,032) in Uganda were worried about not having enough food. An estimated 25.2% of the respondents reported skipping a meal, while 32.1% reported consuming less food. Less than 20% of the households experienced food shortage, hunger, or having nothing to eat. Overall, 30.6% of the households were food insecure during the lockdown. The top five ranked determinants of HFI were identified as follows: (1) households’ inability to produce enough food; (2) households’ inability to buy food; (3) reduced household income; (4) limited cash assistance, and (5) households’ inability to stock adequate food supplies.ConclusionsRanking, rather than the statistical significance of the determinants of HFI, is crucial as an approach to applied research, as it helps stakeholders determine how to allocate resources for targeted interventions within the constraints of limited funding. These findings emphasize the importance of intervening on the most highly ranked determinants of HFI to enhance the resilience of local food systems, and households’ capacity to cope with recurring and unforeseen shocks. Agricultural Science Database
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    Medium Term Climate Change Effects on Millet Yields in Gulu District, Northern Uganda
    (East African Nature and Science Organization, 2024-05-12) Oriangi, George; Bamutaze, Yazidhi; Mukwaya, Paul Isolo; Edekebon, Elaijah
    Climate change is expected to adversely affect crop yields and livelihoods of agro-dependent societies, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. However, there remain gaps on the effects of expected regional climatic changes on key food security crops. This study assessed the projected climatic conditions and expected changes in millet yields for Paicho Sub County (S/C) in Gulu District up to the year 2033 using a cross sectional study design. To determine future climatic conditions, PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies) model was used based on projected conditions at a 50 km spatial resolution while millet yields were modelled using Penman Grindley soil moisture balance model. PRECIS projected changes for 2033 reveal a strong and significant decrease in rainfall (p< 0.05). This is likely to decrease millet yields by 2.6% below the average current yields of 1.8 tons per hectare per year under business-as-usual scenario. The finding indicates a need for improved millet varieties that can survive under changed climatic conditions
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    Translocal Livelihoods, Socio-Economic Differentiation and Lower Level Urbanisation in Uganda
    (Wiley Periodicals Inc, 2025-03) Andersson, Agnes;; Mackay, Heather;; Mukwaya, Paul Isolo
    ABSTRACT In sub‐Saharan Africa, more than a quarter of the urban population lives in small towns, with rapid lower level urbanisation being driven largely by lacking rural opportunities. A growing interest in translocality considers relationships that position livelihoods within multiple spatial contexts. Terms of inclusion in translocal relationships vary, and the socio‐economic differentiation emerging out of these relationships is understudied. We use a mixed‐methods approach, combining survey data with qualitative data collected in seven small towns in Uganda to shed light on their translocal livelihood dynamics and to elucidate the empirical and theoretical linkages between translocality and socio‐economic differentiation.
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    Variability and Changes in Climate in Northern Uganda
    (East African Nature and Science Organization, 2024-03-18) Oriangi, George; Mukwaya, Paul Isolo; Luwa, Justine Kilama; Menya, Emmanuel; Malinga, Geoffrey Maxwell; Bamutaze, Yazidhi
    Variability and changes in climate are generally expected to occur. However, there remain gaps on dynamics of expected regional variations in climatic changes. This study assessed historic and projected climatic conditions up to the year 2033. The study hypothesized that temperature rather than rainfall significantly increased for the period 1980-2010 and rainfall rather than temperature is likely to decrease significantly by 2033 for Gulu District in northern Uganda. To determine historic climatic trends, rainfall and temperature data were obtained from Uganda National Meteorological Authority (UNMA) while for future climate, the PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies) modelled data based on projected conditions at a 50 km spatial resolution was used. These data sets were subjected to trend analysis and the differences in means were detected at a 95% confidence level. Contrary to the evidences from other empirical studies, results generally indicated decreasing rainfall for the period 1980-2010. However, the decrease was not significant (P > 0.05) while both historic mean annual maximum and minimum temperature trends showed a statistically significant increase (P<0.05). Projections for 2033 reveal a significant decrease in rainfall (P < 0.05) while both maximum and minimum temperature will remain quasi uniform