Browsing by Author "Makumbi, Issa"
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Item Achieving measles control: lessons from the 2002–06 measles control strategy for Uganda(Health policy and planning, 2002) Mbabazi, William B.; Nanyunja, Miriam; Makumbi, Issa; Braka, Fiona; Baliraine, Frederick N.; Kisakye, Annet; Bwogi, Josephine; Mugyenyi, Possy; Kabwongera, Eva; Lewis, Rosamund F.The 2002–06 measles control strategy for Uganda was implemented to strengthen routine immunization, undertake large-scale catch-up and follow-up vaccination campaigns, and to initiate nationwide case-based, laboratory-backed measles surveillance. This study examines the impact of this strategy on the epidemiology of measles in Uganda, and the lessons learnt. Methods Number of measles cases and routine measles vaccination coverage reported by each district were obtained from the National Health Management Information System reports of 1997 to 2007. The immunization coverage by district in a given year was calculated by dividing the number of children immunized by the projected population in the same age category. Annual measles incidence for each year was derived by dividing the number of cases in a year by the mid-year projected population. Commercial measles IgM enzyme-linked immunoassay kits were used to confirm measles cases.Item Ebola disease outbreak caused by the Sudan virus in Uganda, 2022: a descriptive epidemiological study(Elsevier Ltd, 2024-10) Ario, Alex R; Ahirirwe, Sherry R; Ocero, Jane R Aceng; Atwine, Diana; Muruta, Allan N; Kagirita, Atek; Tegegn, Yonas; Kadobera, Daniel; Kwesiga, Benon; Gidudu, Samuel; Migisha, Richard; Makumbi, Issa; Elyanu, Peter J; Ndyabakira, Alex; Et.alUganda has had seven Ebola disease outbreaks, between 2000 and 2022. On Sept 20, 2022, the Ministry of Health declared a Sudan virus disease outbreak in Mubende District, Central Uganda. We describe the epidemiological characteristics and transmission dynamics.BACKGROUNDUganda has had seven Ebola disease outbreaks, between 2000 and 2022. On Sept 20, 2022, the Ministry of Health declared a Sudan virus disease outbreak in Mubende District, Central Uganda. We describe the epidemiological characteristics and transmission dynamics.For this descriptive study, cases were classified as suspected, probable, or confirmed using Ministry of Health case definitions. We investigated all reported cases to obtain data on case-patient demographics, exposures, and signs and symptoms, and identified transmission chains. We conducted a descriptive epidemiological study and also calculated basic reproduction number (Ro) estimates.METHODSFor this descriptive study, cases were classified as suspected, probable, or confirmed using Ministry of Health case definitions. We investigated all reported cases to obtain data on case-patient demographics, exposures, and signs and symptoms, and identified transmission chains. We conducted a descriptive epidemiological study and also calculated basic reproduction number (Ro) estimates.Between Aug 8 and Nov 27, 2022, 164 cases (142 confirmed, 22 probable) were identified from nine (6%) of 146 districts. The median age was 29 years (IQR 20-38), 95 (58%) of 164 patients were male, and 77 (47%) patients died. Symptom onsets ranged from Aug 8 to Nov 27, 2022. The case fatality rate was highest in children younger than 10 years (17 [74%] of 23 patients). Fever (135 [84%] of 160 patients), vomiting (93 [58%] patients), weakness (89 [56%] patients), and diarrhoea (81 [51%] patients) were the most common symptoms; bleeding was uncommon (21 [13%] patients). Before outbreak identification, most case-patients (26 [60%] of 43 patients) sought care at private health facilities. The median incubation was 6 days (IQR 5-8), and median time from onset to death was 10 days (7-23). Most early cases represented health-care-associated transmission (43 [26%] of 164 patients); most later cases represented household transmission (109 [66%]). Overall Ro was 1·25.FINDINGSBetween Aug 8 and Nov 27, 2022, 164 cases (142 confirmed, 22 probable) were identified from nine (6%) of 146 districts. The median age was 29 years (IQR 20-38), 95 (58%) of 164 patients were male, and 77 (47%) patients died. Symptom onsets ranged from Aug 8 to Nov 27, 2022. The case fatality rate was highest in children younger than 10 years (17 [74%] of 23 patients). Fever (135 [84%] of 160 patients), vomiting (93 [58%] patients), weakness (89 [56%] patients), and diarrhoea (81 [51%] patients) were the most common symptoms; bleeding was uncommon (21 [13%] patients). Before outbreak identification, most case-patients (26 [60%] of 43 patients) sought care at private health facilities. The median incubation was 6 days (IQR 5-8), and median time from onset to death was 10 days (7-23). Most early cases represented health-care-associated transmission (43 [26%] of 164 patients); most later cases represented household transmission (109 [66%]). Overall Ro was 1·25.Despite delayed detection, the 2022 Sudan virus disease outbreak was rapidly controlled, possibly thanks to a low Ro. Children (aged <10 years) were at the highest risk of death, highlighting the need for targeted interventions to improve their outcomes during Ebola disease outbreaks. Initial care-seeking occurred at facilities outside the government system, showing a need to ensure that private and public facilities receive training to identify possible Ebola disease cases during an outbreak. Health-care-associated transmission in private health facilities drove the early outbreak, suggesting gaps in infection prevention and control.INTERPRETATIONDespite delayed detection, the 2022 Sudan virus disease outbreak was rapidly controlled, possibly thanks to a low Ro. Children (aged <10 years) were at the highest risk of death, highlighting the need for targeted interventions to improve their outcomes during Ebola disease outbreaks. Initial care-seeking occurred at facilities outside the government system, showing a need to ensure that private and public facilities receive training to identify possible Ebola disease cases during an outbreak. Health-care-associated transmission in private health facilities drove the early outbreak, suggesting gaps in infection prevention and control.None.FUNDINGNone. MEDLINE - AcademicItem Ebola Viral Hemorrhagic Disease Outbreak in West Africa- Lessons from Uganda.(African health sciences, 2014) Mbonye, Anthony K.; Wamala, Joseph F.; Nanyunja, Miriam; Opio, Alex; Makumbi, Issa; Aceng, Jane RuthThere has been a rapid spread of Ebola Viral Hemorrhagic disease in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone since March 2014. Since this is the first time of a major Ebola outbreak in West Africa; it is possible there is lack of understanding of the epidemic in the communities, lack of experience among the health workers to manage the cases and limited capacities for rapid response. The main objective of this article is to share Uganda’s experience in controlling similar Ebola outbreaks and to suggest some lessons that could inform the control of the Ebola outbreak in West Africa.The article is based on published papers, reports of previous Ebola outbreaks, response plans and experiences of individuals who have participated in the control of Ebola epidemics in Uganda. The success in the control of Ebola epidemics in Uganda has been due to high political support, effective coordination through national and district task forces. In addition there has been active surveillance, strong community mobilization using village health teams and other community resources persons, an efficient laboratory system that has capacity to provide timely results. These have coupled with effective case management and infection control and the involvement of development partners who commit resources with shared responsibility.Several factors have contributed to the successful quick containment of Ebola outbreaks in Uganda. West African countries experiencing Ebola outbreaks could draw some lessons from the Uganda experience and adapt them to contain the Ebola epidemic.Item Factors Associated with Utilisation of Couple HIV Counselling and Testing Among HIV‑Positive Adults in Kyoga Fishing Community Uganda, May 2017: Cross Sectional Study(AIDS and behavior, 2017) Nakiire, Lydia; Kabwama, Steven; Majwala, Robert; Bbale, Joy Kusiima; Makumbi, Issa; Kalyango, Joan; Kihembo, Christine; Masiira, Ben; Bulage, Lilian; Kadobera, Daniel; Ario, Alex Riolexus; Nsubuga, PeterCouple HIV counseling and testing (CHCT) is key in preventing heterosexual HIV transmission and achievement of 90-90-90 UNAIDS treatment targets by 2020. We conducted secondary data analysis to assess utilization of CHCT and associated factors using logistic regression. 58/134 participants (49%) had ever utilized CHCT. Disclosure of individual HIV results to a partner [aOR = 16; 95% CI: (3.6–67)], residence for > 1 < 5 years [aOR = 0.04; 95% CI (0.005–0.33)], and none mobility [aOR = 3.6; 95% CI (1.1–12)] were significantly associated with CHCT. Age modified relationship between CHCT and disclosure (Likelihood-ratio test LR chi2 = 4.2 (p value = 0.041). Disclosure of individual HIV results with a partner and residence for more than 1 year improved utilization of CHCT; mobility reduced the odds of CHCT. Interventions should target prior discussion of individual HIV results among couples and mobile populations to increase CHCT.Item Factors Associated with Utilisation of Couple HIV Counselling and Testing Among HIV‑Positive Adults in Kyoga Fishing Community Uganda, May 2017: Cross Sectional Study(AIDS and behavior, 2020) Nakiire, Lydia; Kabwama, Steven; Majwala, Robert; Kusiima Bbale, Joy; Makumbi, Issa; Kalyango, Joan; Kihembo, Christine; Masiira, Ben; Bulage, Lilian; Kadobera, Daniel; Riolexus Ario, Alex; Nsubuga, Peter; Wanyenze, RhodaCouple HIV counseling and testing (CHCT) is key in preventing heterosexual HIV transmission and achievement of 90-90- 90 UNAIDS treatment targets by 2020. We conducted secondary data analysis to assess utilization of CHCT and associated factors using logistic regression. 58/134 participants (49%) had ever utilized CHCT. Disclosure of individual HIV results to a partner [aOR = 16; 95% CI: (3.6–67)], residence for > 1 < 5 years [aOR = 0.04; 95% CI (0.005–0.33)], and none mobility [aOR = 3.6; 95% CI (1.1–12)] were significantly associated with CHCT. Age modified relationship between CHCT and disclosure (Likelihood-ratio test LR chi2 = 4.2 (p value = 0.041). Disclosure of individual HIV results with a partner and residence for more than 1 year improved utilization of CHCT; mobility reduced the odds of CHCT. Interventions should target prior discussion of individual HIV results among couples and mobile populations to increase CHCT.Item First Laboratory-Confirmed Outbreak of Human and Animal Rift Valley Fever Virus in Uganda in 48 Years(The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene, 2019) Shoemaker, Trevor R.; Nyakarahuka, Luke; Balinandi, Stephen; Ojwang, Joseph; Tumusiime, Alex; Mulei, Sophia; Kyondo, Jackson; Lubwama, Bernard; Sekamatte, Musa; Namutebi, Annemarion; Tusiime, Patrick; Monje, Fred; Mayanja, Martin; Ssendagire, Steven; Dahlke, Melissa; Kyazze, Simon; Wetaka, Milton; Makumbi, Issa; Borchert, Jeff; Zufan, Sara; Patel, Ketan; Whitmer, Shannon; Brown, Shelley; Davis, William G.; Klena, John D.; Nichol, Stuart T.; Rollin, Pierre E.; Lutwama, JuliusIn March 2016, an outbreak of Rift Valley fever (RVF) was identified in Kabale district, southwestern Uganda. A comprehensive outbreak investigation was initiated, including human, livestock, and mosquito vector investigations. Overall, four cases of acute, nonfatal human disease were identified, three by RVF virus (RVFV) reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), and one by IgM and IgG serology. Investigations of cattle, sheep, and goat samples from homes and villages of confirmed and probable RVF cases and the Kabale central abattoir found that eight of 83 (10%) animals were positive for RVFV by IgG serology; one goat from the home of a confirmed case tested positive by RT-PCR. Whole genome sequencing from three clinical specimens was performed and phylogenetic analysis inferred the relatedness of 2016 RVFV with the 2006–2007 Kenya-2 clade, suggesting previous introduction of RVFV into southwestern Uganda. An entomological survey identified three of 298 pools (1%) of Aedes and Coquillettidia species that were RVFV positive by RT-PCR. This was the first identification of RVFV in Uganda in 48 years and the 10th independent viral hemorrhagic fever outbreak to be confirmed in Uganda since 2010.Item Hepatitis B infection is highly endemic in Uganda: findings from a national serosurvey(African health sciences, 2009) Bwogi, Josephine; Braka, Fiona; Makumbi, Issa; Mishra, Vinod; Bakamutumaho, Barnabas; Nanyunja, Miriam; Opio, Alex; Downing, Robert; Biryahwaho, Benon; Lewis, Rosamund F.Infant immunization against hepatitis B began in Uganda in 2002. Objective: To determine the baseline prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection and explore risk factors. Methods: A hepatitis B prevalence study was nested in the 2005 national HIV/AIDS serobehavioural survey. Demographic characteristics and risk factors were explored by questionnaire. One third of blood specimens (n=5875) from adults aged 15 to 59 years were tested for hepatitis B core antibodies (HBcAb); positive specimens were tested for hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg). Results: HBcAb was present in 52.3% (95% CI: 51.0-53.6) of adults, and HBsAg in 10.3% (9.5-11.1). By 15-19 years of age, 40.0% had been infected with HBV. Prevalence of both markers was significantly higher across northern Uganda, in rural areas, among the poor and least educated, and in uncircumcised men. Other independent predictors of infection were age, ethnic group, occupation, number of sex partners, and HIV and HSV-2 status. Conclusion: Hepatitis B virus infection is highly endemic in Uganda, with transmission occurring in childhood and adulthood. More than 1.4 million adults are chronically infected and some communities disproportionately affected. The hepatitis B infant immunization programme should be sustained and catch-up vaccination considered for older children.Item Investigation of Marburg Virus Disease Outbreak in Kween District, Eastern Uganda, 2017(PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 2019) Ario, Alex Riolexus; Makumbi, Issa; Nkonwa, Innocent Herbert; Eyu, Patricia; Opio, Denis Nixon; Nakiire, Lydia; Kwesiga, Benon; Kadobera, Daniel; Tusiime, Patrick; Bulage, Lilian; Zhu, Bao-Ping; Aceng, Jane RuthIn October 2017, a blood sample from a resident of Kween District, Eastern Uganda, tested positive for Marburg virus. Within 24 hour of confirmation, a rapid outbreak response was initiated. Here, we present results of epidemiological and laboratory investigations.A district task force was activated consisting of specialised teams to conduct case finding, case management and isolation, contact listing and follow up, sample collection and testing, and community engagement. An ecological investigation was also carried out to identify the potential source of infection. Virus isolation and Next Generation sequencing were performed to identify the strain of Marburg virus.Seventy individuals (34 MVD suspected cases and 36 close contacts of confirmed cases) were epidemiologically investigated, with blood samples tested for MVD. Only four cases met the MVD case definition; one was categorized as a probable case while the other three were confirmed cases. A total of 299 contacts were identified; during follow- up, two were confirmed as MVD. Of the four confirmed and probable MVD cases, three died, yielding a case fatality rate of 75%. All four cases belonged to a single family and 50% (2/4) of the MVD cases were female. All confirmed cases had clinical symptoms of fever, vomiting, abdominal pain and bleeding from body orifices. Viral sequences indicated that the Marburg virus strain responsible for this outbreak was closely related to virus strains previously shown to be circulating in Uganda.This outbreak of MVD occurred as a family cluster with no additional transmission outside of the four related cases. Rapid case detection, prompt laboratory testing at the Uganda National VHF Reference Laboratory and presence of pre-trained, well-prepared national and district rapid response teams facilitated the containment and control of this outbreak within one month, preventing nationwide and global transmission of the disease.Item Multidistrict Outbreak of Marburg Virus Disease—Uganda, 2012(The Journal of infectious diseases, 2015) Knust, Barbara; Schafer, Ilana J.; Wamala, Joseph; Nyakarahuka, Luke; Okot, Charles; Shoemaker, Trevor; Dodd, Kimberly; Gibbons, Aridth; Balinandi, Stephen; Tumusiime, Alex; Campbell, Shelley; Newman, Edmund; Lasry, Estrella; DeClerck, Hilde; Boum, Yap; Makumbi, Issa; Bosa, Henry Kyobe; Mbonye, Anthony; Aceng, Jane Ruth; Nichol, Stuart T.; Ströher, Ute; Rollin, Pierre E.In October 2012, a cluster of illnesses and deaths was reported in Uganda and was confirmed to be an outbreak of Marburg virus disease (MVD). Patients meeting the case criteria were interviewed using a standard investigation form, and blood specimens were tested for evidence of acute or recent Marburg virus infection by reverse transcription–polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and antibody enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. The total count of confirmed and probable MVD cases was 26, of which 15 (58%) were fatal. Four of 15 laboratory-confirmed cases (27%) were fatal. Case patients were located in 4 different districts in Uganda, although all chains of transmission originated in Ibanda District, and the earliest case detected had an onset in July 2012. No zoonotic exposures were identified. Symptoms significantly associated with being a MVD case included hiccups, anorexia, fatigue, vomiting, sore throat, and difficulty swallowing. Contact with a case patient and attending a funeral were also significantly associated with being a case. Average RT-PCR cycle threshold values for fatal cases during the acute phase of illness were significantly lower than those for nonfatal cases. Following the institution of contact tracing, active case surveillance, care of patients with isolation precautions, community mobilization, and rapid diagnostic testing, the outbreak was successfully contained 14 days after its initial detection.Item Prevalence and incidence of nodding syndrome and other forms of epilepsy in onchocerciasis-endemic areas in northern Uganda after the implementation of onchocerciasis control measures(Infectious Diseases of Poverty, 2020) Gumisiriza, Nolbert; Mubiru, Frank; Siewe Fodjo, Joseph Nelson; Mbonye Kayitale, Martin; Hotterbeekx, An; Idro, Richard; Makumbi, Issa; Lakwo, Tom; Opar, Bernard; Kaducu, Joice; Wamala, Joseph Francis; Colebunders, RobertAround 2007, a nodding syndrome (NS) epidemic appeared in onchocerciasis-endemic districts of northern Uganda, where ivermectin mass distribution had never been implemented. This study evaluated the effect of community-directed treatment with ivermectin (CDTI) and ground larviciding of rivers initiated after 2009 and 2012 respectively, on the epidemiology of NS and other forms of epilepsy (OFE) in some districts of northern Uganda. Methods: In 2012, a population-based community survey of NS/epilepsy was carried out by the Ugandan Ministry of Health in Kitgum and Pader districts. In August 2017, we conducted a new survey in selected villages of these districts and compared our findings with the 2012 data. In addition, two villages in Moyo district (where CDTI was ongoing since 1993) served as comparative onchocerciasis-endemic sites in which larviciding had never been implemented. The comparison between 2012 and 2017 prevalence and cumulative incidence were done using the Fisher’s and Pearson’s Chi-square tests at 95% level of significance. Results: A total of 2138 individuals in 390 households were interviewed. In the selected villages of Kitgum and Pader, there was no significant decrease in prevalence of NS and OFE between 2012 and 2017. However, the cumulative incidence of all forms of epilepsy decreased from 1165 to 130 per 100 000 persons per year (P = 0.002); that of NS decreased from 490 to 43 per 100 000 persons per year (P = 0.037); and for OFE from 675 to 87 per 100 000 persons per year (P = 0.024). The median age of affected persons (NS and OFE) shifted from 13.5 (IQR: 11.0–15.0) years in 2012 to 18.0 (IQR: 15.0–20.3) years in 2017; P < 0.001. The age-standardized prevalence of OFE in Moyo in 2017 was 4.6%, similar to 4.5% in Kitgum and Pader. Conclusions: Our findings support the growing evidence of a relationship between infection by Onchocerca volvulus and some types of childhood epilepsy, and suggest that a combination of bi-annual mass distribution of ivermectin and ground larviciding of rivers is an effective strategy to prevent NS and OFE in onchocerciasis-hyperendemic areas.Item Rapid establishment of a frontline field laboratory in response to an imported outbreak of Ebola virus disease in western Uganda, June 2019(PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 2021) Schuh, Amy J.; Kyondo, Jackson; Graziano, James; Balinandi, Stephen; Kainulainen, Markus H.; Tumusiime, Alex; Nyakarahuka, Luke; Mulei, Sophia; Baluku, Jimmy; Lonergan, William; Mayer, Oren; Masereka, Rastus; Masereka, Fredrick; Businge, Esther; Gatare, Alphonse; Kabyanga, Loice; Muhindo, Samuel; Mugabe, Raymond; Makumbi, Issa; Kayiwa, Joshua; Makoba Wetaka, Milton; Brown, Vance; Ojwang, Joseph; Nelson, Lisa; Millard, Monica; Nichol, Stuart T.; Montgomery, Joel M.; Taboy, Celine H.; Lutwama, Julius J.; Klena, John D.The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) declared an Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in North Kivu in August 2018. By June 2019, the outbreak had spread to 26 health zones in northeastern DRC, causing >2,000 reported cases and >1,000 deaths. On June 10, 2019, three members of a Congolese family with EVD-like symptoms traveled to western Uganda’s Kasese District to seek medical care. Shortly thereafter, the Viral Hemorrhagic Fever Surveillance and Laboratory Program (VHF program) at the Uganda Virus Research Institute (UVRI) confirmed that all three patients had EVD. The Ugandan Ministry of Health declared an outbreak of EVD in Uganda’s Kasese District, notified the World Health Organization, and initiated a rapid response to contain the outbreak. As part of this response, UVRI and the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, with the support of Uganda’s Public Health Emergency Operations Center, the Kasese District Health Team, the Superintendent of Bwera General Hospital, the United States Department of Defense’s Makerere University Walter Reed Project, and the United States Mission to Kampala’s Global Health Security Technical Working Group, jointly established an Ebola Field Laboratory in Kasese District at Bwera General Hospital, proximal to an Ebola Treatment Unit (ETU). The laboratory consisted of a rapid containment kit for viral inactivation of patient specimens and a GeneXpert Instrument for performing Xpert Ebola assays. Laboratory staff tested 76 specimens from alert and suspect cases of EVD; the majority were admitted to the ETU (89.3%) and reported recent travel to the DRC (58.9%). Although no EVD cases were detected by the field laboratory, it played an important role in patient management and epidemiological surveillance by providing diagnostic results in <3 hours. The integration of the field laboratory into Uganda’s National VHF Program also enabled patient specimens to be referred to Entebbe for confirmatory EBOV testing and testing for other hemorrhagic fever viruses that circulate in Uganda.Item Risk assessment of Ebola virus disease spreading in Uganda using a multilayer temporal network(bioRxiv, 2019) Riad, Mahbubul H.; Sekamatte, Musa; Ocom, Felix; Makumbi, Issa; Scoglio, Caterina MNetwork-based modelling of infectious diseases apply compartmental models on a contact network, which makes the epidemic process crucially dependent on the network structure. For highly contagious diseases such as Ebola virus disease (EVD), the inter-personal contact plays the most vital role in the human to human transmission. Therefore, for accurate representation of the EVD spreading, the contact network needs to resemble the reality. Prior research work has mainly focused on static networks (only permanent contacts) or activity driven networks (only temporal contacts) for Ebola spreading. A comprehensive network for EVD spreading should include both these network structures, as there are always some permanent contacts together with temporal contacts. Therefore, we propose a multilayer temporal network for Uganda, which is at risk of Ebola outbreak from the neighboring Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) epidemic. The network has a permanent layer representing permanent contacts among individuals within family level, and a data driven temporal network for human movements motivated by cattle trade, fish trade, or general communications. We propose a Gillespie algorithm with the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) compartmental model to simulate the evolution of the EVD spreading as well as to evaluate the risk throughout our network. As an example, we applied our method to a multilayer network consisting of 23 districts along different movement routes in Uganda starting from bordering districts of DRC to Kampala. Simulation results shows that some regions are at higher risk of infection, suggesting some focal points for Ebola preparedness and providing direction to inform interventions in the field. Simulation results also shows that decreasing physical contacts as well as increasing preventive measures result in a reduction of chances to develop an outbreak. Overall, the main contribution of this paper lies in the novel method for risk assessment, the accuracy of which can be increased by increasing the amount and the accuracy of the data used to build the network and the model.Item Risk assessment of Ebola virus disease spreading in Uganda using a two-layer temporal network(Scientific reports, 2019) Riad, Mahbubul H.; Sekamatte, Musa; Ocom, Felix; Makumbi, Issa; Scoglio, Caterina M.Network-based modelling of infectious diseases apply compartmental models on a contact network, which makes the epidemic process crucially dependent on the network structure. For highly contagious diseases such as Ebola virus disease (EVD), interpersonal contact plays the most vital role in humanto- human transmission. Therefore, for accurate representation of EVD spreading, the contact network needs to resemble the reality. Prior research has mainly focused on static networks (only permanent contacts) or activity-driven networks (only temporal contacts) for Ebola spreading. A comprehensive network for EVD spreading should include both these network structures, as there are always some permanent contacts together with temporal contacts. Therefore, we propose a two-layer temporal network for Uganda, which is at risk of an Ebola outbreak from the neighboring Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) epidemic. The network has a permanent layer representing permanent contacts among individuals within the family level, and a data-driven temporal network for human movements motivated by cattle trade, fish trade, or general communications. We propose a Gillespie algorithm with the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) compartmental model to simulate the evolution of EVD spreading as well as to evaluate the risk throughout our network. As an example, we applied our method to a network consisting of 23 districts along different movement routes in Uganda starting from bordering districts of the DRC to Kampala. Simulation results show that some regions are at higher risk of infection, suggesting some focal points for Ebola preparedness and providing direction to inform interventions in the field. Simulation results also show that decreasing physical contact as well as increasing preventive measures result in a reduction of chances to develop an outbreak. Overall, the main contribution of this paper lies in the novel method for risk assessment, which can be more precise with an increasing volume of accurate data for creating the network model.Item Shifts in Geographic Distribution and Antimicrobial Resistance during a Prolonged Typhoid Fever Outbreak — Bundibugyo and Kasese Districts, Uganda, 2009–2011(PLoS Negl Trop Dis, 2014) Spalding Walters, Maroya; Routh, Janell; Mikoleit, Matthew; Kadivane, Samuel; Ouma, Caroline; Mubiru, Denis; Mbusa, Ben; Murangi, Amos; Ejoku, Emmanuel; Rwantangle, Absalom; Kule, , Uziah; Lule, John; Garrett, Nancy; Halpin, Jessica; Maxwell, Nikki; Kagirita, Atek; Mulabya, Fred; Makumbi, Issa; Freeman, Molly; Joyce, Kevin; Hill, Vince; Downing, Robert; Mintz, EricSalmonella enterica serovar Typhi is transmitted by fecally contaminated food and water and causes approximately 22 million typhoid fever infections worldwide each year. Most cases occur in developing countries, where approximately 4% of patients develop intestinal perforation (IP). In Kasese District, Uganda, a typhoid fever outbreak notable for a high IP rate began in 2008. We report that this outbreak continued through 2011, when it spread to the neighboring district of Bundibugyo. Methodology/Principal Findings: A suspected typhoid fever case was defined as IP or symptoms of fever, abdominal pain, and $1 of the following: gastrointestinal disruptions, body weakness, joint pain, headache, clinically suspected IP, or nonresponsiveness to antimalarial medications. Cases were identified retrospectively via medical record reviews and prospectively through laboratory-enhanced case finding. Among Kasese residents, 709 cases were identified from August 1, 2009–December 31, 2011; of these, 149 were identified during the prospective period beginning November 1, 2011. Among Bundibugyo residents, 333 cases were identified from January 1–December 31, 2011, including 128 cases identified during the prospective period beginning October 28, 2011. IP was reported for 507 (82%) and 59 (20%) of Kasese and Bundibugyo cases, respectively. Blood and stool cultures performed for 154 patients during the prospective period yielded isolates from 24 (16%) patients. Three pulsed-field gel electrophoresis pattern combinations, including one observed in a Kasese isolate in 2009, were shared among Kasese and Bundibugyo isolates. Antimicrobial susceptibility was assessed for 18 isolates; among these 15 (83%) were multidrug-resistant (MDR), compared to 5% of 2009 isolates. Conclusions/Significance: Molecular and epidemiological evidence suggest that during a prolonged outbreak, typhoid spread from Kasese to Bundibugyo. MDR strains became prevalent. Lasting interventions, such as typhoid vaccination and improvements in drinking water infrastructure, should be considered to minimize the risk of prolonged outbreaks in the future.Item Surveillance for Streptococcus pneumoniae Meningitis in Children Aged !5 Years: Implications for Immunization in Uganda(Clinical Infectious Diseases, 2009) Kisakye, Annet; Makumbi, Issa; Nansera, Denis; Lewis, Rosamund; Braka, Fiona; Wobudeya, Eric; Chaplain, Duku; Nalumansi, Esther; Mbabazi, William; Gessner, Bradford D.Affordable pneumococcal conjugate vaccines will soon become available to developing countries through the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization. Data on Streptococcus pneumoniae meningitis epidemiology in Uganda will assist decision makers in determining the best national vaccine policy. We reviewed acute bacterial meningitis surveillance data for children aged !5 years from 3 sentinel surveillance sites in 3 Ugandan districts collected from 2001 through 2006. Serotype and antibiotic-resistance testing were performed on pneumococcal isolates collected from 2005 through 2006 from the Kampala district in the tropical central region of Uganda. Minimum pneumococcal meningitis incidence estimates were calculated for a portion of the Kampala district and all of the Gulu district, where case ascertainment was more complete. At the 3 sites, 14,388 probable acute bacterial meningitis cases were observed. The most common cause identified was S. pneumoniae ( ; np331 35% of all confirmed cases), which had an overall case fatality ratio of 19%. Yearly pneumococcal meningitis incidence was 3–20 cases per 100,000 population in Kampala versus 28–42 cases per 100,000 population in Gulu. The most commonly identified serotypes were 6A/6B (40%); 43% of isolates were serotypes that are in the available 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine and 70% are in the proposed 13- valent pneumococcal vaccine. Twenty-five isolates (83%) had intermediate resistance to penicillin but none were fully resistant. Pneumococcal meningitis is common and severe in Uganda, indicating a role for the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine.