Browsing by Author "Lesolle, David"

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    Investigating Relationship between Drought Severity in Botswana and ENSO
    (Natural Hazards, 2020) Byakatonda, Jimmy; Parida, B. P.; Moalafhi, Ditiro B.; Kenabatho, Piet K.; Lesolle, David
    Influences of El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) on weather systems have increased the frequency and amplitude of extreme events over the last century. This even continues to exacerbate the already warming earth, with 2014–2016 which coincided with the strongest El Niño years observed as the warmest period in recent past. This study presents an approach of characterizing droughts at various timescales and establishes teleconnections between ENSO and drought severity in Botswana. The study uses Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI) at timescales of 1, 3, 6, 12 and 24 month to characterize droughts and Pearson’s correlations to study the teleconnections between SPEIs and ENSO. Results from the study reveal that extreme droughts are a rare occurrence in Botswana though it is more prone to moderate droughts at 12 month SPEI with a probability of 19% in the north. The highest severe drought probability was 7% recorded in the east. Linear trends indicate increasing dryness of around 0.8% per decade. These results have demonstrated that warm sea surface temperatures combined with negative Southern Oscillation Index correspond to persistent negative SPEI values and thus are likely to result in dry conditions. Significant correlations were observed in the mid austral summer in December and January. Due to this relationship, the drought early warning systems could use ENSO as one of the instruments for predicting drought over the study area and hence in its management.
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    The effect of climate information in pastoralists’ adaptation to climate change
    (Emerald, 2019-08-19) Nkuba, Michael; Chanda, Raban; Mmopelwa, Gagoitseope; Kato, Edward; Mangheni, Margaret Najjingo; Lesolle, David
    Purpose – This paper aims to investigate the effect of using indigenous forecasts (IFs) and scientific forecasts (SFs) on pastoralists’ adaptation methods in Rwenzori region, Western Uganda. Design/methodology/approach – Data were collected using a household survey from 270 pastoralists and focus group discussions. The multivariate probit model was used in the analysis. Findings – The results revealed that pastoralists using of IF only more likely to be non-farm enterprises and livestock sales as adaptation strategies. Pastoralists using both SF and IF were more likely to practice livestock migration. Research limitations/implications – Other factors found to be important included land ownership, land tenure, gender, education level, non-farm and productive assets, climate-related risks and agricultural extension access. Practical implications – Increasing the number of weather stations in pastoral areas would increase the predictive accuracy of scientific climate information, which results in better adaptive capacity of pastoralists. Active participation of pastoral households in national meteorological dissemination processes should be explored. Social implications – A two-prong approach that supports both mobile and sedentary pastoralism should be adopted in rangeland development policies. Originality/value – This study has shown the relevance of IFs in climate change adaptation methods of pastoralists. It has also shown that IFs compliment SFs in climate change adaptation in pastoralism.