Browsing by Author "Kyobe Bosa, Henry"
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Item Early cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Uganda: epidemiology and lessons learned from risk-based testing approaches – March-April 2020(Globalization and Health, 2020) Migisha, Richard; Kwesiga, Benon; Mirembe, Bernadette B.; Amanya, Geofrey; Kabwama, Steven N.; Kadobera, Daniel; Bulage, Lilian; Nsereko, Godfrey; Wadunde, Ignatius; Tindyebwa, Tonny; Lubwama, Bernard; Kagirita, Atek A.; Kayiwa, John T.; Lutwama, Julius J.; Boore, Amy L.; Harris, Julie R.; Kyobe Bosa, HenryOn March 13, 2020, Uganda instituted COVID-19 symptom screening at its international airport, isolation and SARS-CoV-2 testing for symptomatic persons, and mandatory 14-day quarantine and testing of persons traveling through or from high-risk countries. On March 21, 2020, Uganda reported its first SARS-CoV-2 infection in a symptomatic traveler from Dubai. By April 12, 2020, 54 cases and 1257 contacts were identified. We describe the epidemiological, clinical, and transmission characteristics of these cases. Methods: A confirmed case was laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection during March 21–April 12, 2020 in a resident of or traveler to Uganda. We reviewed case-person files and interviewed case-persons at isolation centers. We identified infected contacts from contact tracing records. Results: Mean case-person age was 35 (±16) years; 34 (63%) were male. Forty-five (83%) had recently traveled internationally (‘imported cases’), five (9.3%) were known contacts of travelers, and four (7.4%) were community cases. Of the 45 imported cases, only one (2.2%) was symptomatic at entry. Among all case-persons, 29 (54%) were symptomatic at testing and five (9.3%) were pre-symptomatic. Among the 34 (63%) case-persons who were ever symptomatic, all had mild disease: 16 (47%) had fever, 13 (38%) reported headache, and 10 (29%) reported cough. Fifteen (28%) case-persons had underlying conditions, including three persons with HIV. An average of 31 contacts (range, 4–130) were identified per case-person. Five (10%) case-persons, all symptomatic, infected one contact each. Conclusion: The first 54 case-persons with SARS-CoV-2 infection in Uganda primarily comprised incoming air travelers with asymptomatic or mild disease. Disease would likely not have been detected in these persons without the targeted testing interventions implemented in Uganda. Transmission was low among symptomatic persons and nonexistent from asymptomatic persons. Routine, systematic screening of travelers and at-risk persons, and thorough contact tracing will be needed for Uganda to maintain epidemic controlItem Estimating the Effect and Cost-Effectiveness of Facemasks in Reducing the Spread of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome- Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Uganda(CC-BY-ND 4.0 International license ., 2020) Nannyonga, Betty K.; Wanyenze, Rhoda K.; Kaleebu, Pontiano; Ssenkusu, John M.; Lutalo, Tom; Makumbi, Fredrick Edward; Kwizera, Arthur; Byakika, Pauline; Kirungi, Willford; Kyobe Bosa, Henry; Ssembatya, Vincent A.; Mwebesa, Henry; Atwine, Diana; Aceng, Jane Ruth; Woldermariamç, Yonas TegegnEvidence that face masks provide effective protection against respiratory infections in the community is scarce. However, face masks are widely used by health workers as part of droplet precautions when caring for patients with respiratory infections. It would therefore be reasonable to suggest that consistent widespread use of face masks in the community could prevent further spread of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome-Coronavirus 2 (SARSCoV- 2). In this study we examine public face mask wearing in Uganda where a proportion wears masks to protect against acquiring, and the other to prevent from transmitting SARSCoV- 2. The objective of this study was to determine what percentage of the population would have to wear face masks to reduce susceptibility to and infectivity of SARS-COV-2 in Uganda, keeping the basic reproduction number below unity and/or flattening the curve. We used an SEIAQRD model for the analysisItem The Ugandan Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome -Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Model: A Data Driven Approach to Estimate Risk(medRxiv, 2020) Nannyonga, Betty; Kyobe Bosa, Henry; Woldermariam, Yonas T.; Kaleebu, Pontiano; Ssenkusu, John M.; Lutalo, Tom; Kirungi, Willford; Makumbi, Fredrick E.; Ssembatya, Vincent A.; Mwebesa, Henry G.; Atwine, Diana; Aceng, Jane R.; Wanyenze, Rhoda K.The first case of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome-Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was identified on March 21, 2020, in Uganda. The number of cases increased to 8,287 by September 30, 2020. By May throughout June, most of the cases were predominantly imported cases of truck drivers from neighbouring countries. Uganda responded with various restrictions and interventions including lockdown, physical distancing, hand hygiene, and use of face masks in public, to control the growth rate of the outbreak. By end of September 2020, Uganda had transitioned into community transmissions and most of the reported cases were locals contacts and alerts. This study assessed risks associated with SARS-CoV-2 in Uganda, and presents estimates of the reproduction ratio in real time. An optimal control analysis was performed to determine how long the current mitigation measures such as controlling the exposure in communities, rapid detection, confirmation and contact tracing, partial lockdown of the vulnerable groups and control at the porous boarders, could be implemented and at what cost. Methods: The daily confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 in Uganda were extracted from publicly available sources. Using the data, relative risks for age, gender, and geographical location were determined. Four approaches were used to forecast SARS-CoV-2 in Uganda namely linear exponential, nonlinear exponential, logistic and a deterministic model.