Browsing by Author "Kamugisha Mbabazi, Fulgensia"

Now showing 1 - 2 of 2
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    A Mathematical Model Approach for Prevention and Intervention Measures of the COVID{19 Pandemic in Uganda
    (Asian Research Journal of Mathematics, 2022) Kamugisha Mbabazi, Fulgensia; Gavamukulya, Yahaya; Awichi, Richard; Olupot-Olupot, Peter; Rwahwire, Samson; Biira, Saphina; Luboobi, Livingstone S.
    The human{infecting corona virus disease (COVID{19) caused by the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome corona virus 2 (SARS{CoV{2) was declared a global pandemic on March 11th, 2020. Current human deaths due to the infection have raised the threat globally with only 1 African country free of Virus (Lesotho) as of May 6th, 2020. Different countries have adopted different interventions at different stages of the outbreak, with social distancing being the first option while lock down the preferred option for flattening the curve at the peak of the pandemic. Lock down is aimed at adherence to social distancing, preserve the health system and improve survival. We propose a Susceptible{Exposed{Infected{Expected recoveries (SEIR) mathematical model to study the impact of a variety of prevention and control strategies Uganda has applied since the eruption of the pandemic in the country. We analyze the model using available data to find the infection{free, endemic/infection steady states and the basic reproduction number. In addition, a sensitivity analysis done shows that the transmission rate and the rate at which persons acquire the virus, have a positive influence on the basic reproduction number. On other hand the rate of evacuation by rescue ambulance greatly reduces the reproduction number. The results have potential to inform the impact and effect of early strict interventions including lock down in resource limited settings and social distancing.
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    Projection of Covid–19 Pandemic in Uganda
    (medRxiv, 2020) Kamugisha Mbabazi, Fulgensia
    COVID–19 (Corona Virus) is caused by Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Corona Virus 2 (SARS–COV–2). The virus that was first discovered in China Wuhan Province about 3 months ago (first cases were reported in Wuhan on December 31st 2019) has spread world wide. The six (6) top countries (excluding China) most affected so far include; USA, Italy, Spain, Germany, France and Iran. With Italy showing the highest death toll. In Uganda where it was discovered on 19/3/2020 with one (01) case has just in nine (9) days, increased to thirty (30) infected individuals. This model is a wake up call over the rate at which COVID–19 is likely to spread throughout the country. Thus it is a guide for policymakers and planners to benchmark on for solutions to this deadly virus