NRU :: Browsing by Author "Esaku, Stephen"

Browsing by Author "Esaku, Stephen"

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Does corruption contribute to the rise of the shadow economy? Empirical evidence from Uganda
(Cogent Economics & Finance, 2021) Esaku, Stephen
This paper investigates whether corruption has contributed to the rise of the shadow economy in Uganda. Using autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach and granger causality econometric methods we find a positive relationship between corruption and the size of the shadow economy in both the long- and short-run. Additionally, the causality results reveal a bidirectional causal relationship between the shadow economy and corruption, and vice versa. These findings suggest that, for the case of Uganda, an increase in corruption contributes to the rise in the size of the shadow economy and vice versa, all else equal. Given the complementary relationship between corruption and the size of the shadow economy, addressing widespread informality in the country would require; first, reforming the political system to tackle political corruption and go after politicians who use their influence and power to circumvent institutions. Second, carrying out institutional reforms to address political patronage and influence peddling would go a long way into addressing systemic corruption which in turn could help mitigate the spread of informal sector activities. Third, strengthening the enforcement of existing laws to identify and punish culpable public officials who use their offices for private gain would also address the level of informality in the country.
Does Firm Size affect Learning-by-Exporting? Empirical Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa
(Cogent Economics & Finance, 2020) Esaku, Stephen
This study examines whether the relationship between exports and productivity growth differs across firm size. Using panel data from three Sub-Saharan African countries, I use propensity score matching procedure to examine this relationship. This study finds evidence of productivity differences between new exporters and non-exporters confirming the empirical regularity that new exporters are more productive than never exporters. The findings indicate that export participation effects vary across firm size, with both small and large firms experiencing immediate and significant productivity gains upon entry. However, the productivity gain for large firms is highly significant and more pronounced in the first two years after entry but declines drastically from the third year and tends towards negative in subsequent years. Learning effects might be important for large firms during the initial years of exporting, but these effects dissipate once learning avenues have been exhausted. Small firms display sustained learning effects that expand beyond the fourth year. Relative to the large firms, small new exporters display sustained and significant productivity growth for five year. This study finds no evidence of cumulative productivity growth beyond the third year for large firms. These results are robust to alternative measure of productivity. Any export-led growth should be directed at helping small new exporters access the export markets.
Does Income Inequality Increase the Shadow Economy? Empirical Evidence from Uganda
(Development Studies Research, 2021) Esaku, Stephen
This paper applies the autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing method to investigate the long- and short-run relationship between the size of the shadow economy and income inequality in Uganda. The findings reveal evidence of the long and short-run relationship between the shadow economy and income inequality. We find that a rise in income inequality significantly increases the size of the shadow economy in Uganda, all else equal. These results are robust to the use of alternative econometric methods. At the policy level, instituting income redistribution policies to uplift the standard of the poor, improving resource allocation to productive sectors of the economy, reforming the tax system and macroeconomic environment, and implementing political and institutional reforms to address corruption could be viable policy options to address informality in Uganda.
Does the Shadow Economy Increase Income Inequality in the Short- and Long-run? Empirical Evidence from Uganda
(Cogent Economics & Finance, 2021) Esaku, Stephen
This paper investigates whether the size of the shadow economy increases income inequality in Uganda. This p3aper applies the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration, to test the long- and short-run relationship between the shadow economy and income inequality. The results indicate a positive and statistically significant relationship between the size of the shadow economy and income inequality in both the long-run and short-run, all else equal. The results show that a large size of the shadow economy significantly increases income inequality, in both the long- and short-run. This suggests that people who fail to be absorbed into the formal economy face fewer livelihood opportunities, giving them the incentive to operate in the shadow economy as a means of survival, for them and their families since there are fewer chances of success in the formal economy. Our findings suggest that income inequality could be partially driven by increasing informality in the country. The practical implication of these results is that policies aimed at tackling income inequality should also be directed at addressing the underlying factors that drive the shadow economy.
Export Markets and Firm Productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa
(Journal of African Business, 2021) Esaku, Stephen
In this paper, we analyze the significance of export market destinations for productivity growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. We use matching and difference-in-differences techniques to evaluate these questions. We find that exports generate productivity growth among exporters, with the more productive firms exporting to multiple markets. We also find that changes in export markets are as a result of firm-level productivity growth suggesting that firms will sell products to additional markets if their productivity level increases hence the changes in export markets are correlated with productivity growth. Moreover, we find that exporting to multiple markets raises the firm’s productivity growth by 42.3%, higher than exporting to only one export market at a time. These findings hold at the country and industry level and are robust to other factors that may correlate with increased productivity like age, size and ownership. At the policy level, policies on export promotion should provide information on how prospective exporters can enter into African export markets. Firms that have started exporting should be helped with credit access to expand their sales to other additional export markets.
Exports, Investment and Productivity Growth in Small Firms: A Firm-level Analysis from Tanzania and Ghana
(Journal of African Business, 2022) Esaku, Stephen
This paper examines the effect of firm-level investment in capital on export entry and productivity growth among different firm size classes using matching and difference-in-differences techniques. We find that firm-level investment in capital reduces the burden of sunk costs of export market entry, thereby inducing small firms to enter export markets with ease and increase their productivity as a result of export market participation. New entrants who survive their first year of exporting also grow their investment levels to consolidate market share. We show that micro and small firms that initiate exporting are more likely to implement firm-level investment as well, one way of technology upgrading, to remain competitive in export markets. Moreover, firm-level investment helps small exporters to generate higher productivity once they engage in export markets. This may suggest that the observed market selection and growth of small firms could be the outcome of distinctive productivity improvements in these firms. We note that investing in capital, especially plant and equipment, may help micro and small firms improve their productive capacity to produce more output at lower unit costs as a result of low-marginal costs of production. Export-led growth policies should be directed at supporting micro and small firms access the much needed financing to upgrade their production processes and improve their productivity.
Firm-Level Investment and Exporting: New Empirical Evidence from Ghana and Tanzania
(International Economic Journal, 2020) Esaku, Stephen; Krugell, Waldo
Using firm-level data from two selected African countries, we examine whether firm-level investment in physical capital is a possible channel through which less productive firms gain entry into export markets. Our findings reveal that non-exporters who invest in physical capital increase their probability of switching status, from non-exporter to exporter, and we provide evidence that firm-level investment is correlated with increased productivity growth among exporters. Consequently, we emphasize that firm-level investment in physical capital enables non-exporters to increase their odds of entry to export markets and provides opportunity for young exporters to grow rapidly and persist long in export markets. Although firm productivity differences can be explained by self-selection factors as one channel, firm-level investment in physical capital provides another explanation as to why less productive firms gain entry into the export markets. We establish that when firms invest in physical capital, they improve their productive capacity thereby raising their productivity in the process. Export promotion policies should target providing support to firms that seek to upgrade or expand their production technology as this would stimulate the probability of export market entry hence promoting exports.
Institutionalized Democracy and the Shadow Economy in the Short- and Long-run: Empirical Analysis from Uganda
(Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, 2022) Esaku, Stephen
This paper investigates the relationship between institutionalized democracy and the shadow economy in both the long- and short-run. Using time series data from Uganda that cover the period from 1991 to 2015, this paper applies autoregressive distributed lag method to investigate this relationship. How democracy affects the shadow economy in less developed countries like Uganda is not well understood. This paper aims to fill the above knowledge gap. The findings show that the shadow economy and institutionalized democracy are negatively correlated in both the short- and long-run. This implies that improvement in institutionalized democracy significantly hinders the rise of shadow activities. This indicates that institutions regulate the conduct of economic agents and determine how entrepreneurs engage in economic activities. Moreover, institutions are crucial in resource allocation which in turn leads to welfare improvement. Improvement in welfare of citizens reduces their incentive to engage in informal sector activities since the formal sector provides the necessary support needed to operate legally. These findings are robust to alternative econometric methods. Two practical implications of these findings stand out. First, these findings indicate that reforming the governance system to facilitate efficient resource allocation could be one way of addressing widespread informality in developing economies. Second, these results also indicate that minimizing informality in the economy should gradually move away from emphasis on tackling proximate causes of informality to democratic reforms that change the authority patterns. In this case institutionalized democracy is another important channel of mitigating the rise of the shadow economy.
Investments, export entry and export intensity in small manufacturing firms
(Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, 2020) Esaku, Stephen
We analyze the effect of investment in physical capital on the firm’s choice to enter the export market and increase export intensity. We specifically examine the hypothesis that firm-level investment facilitates small firms to initiate exporting and increase their export intensity. Using propensity score matching techniques, the results we find are remarkable. First, we find that firm-level investments in physical capital significantly increase the probability of export market entry among small firms. Second, we show that small firms that investment significantly increase the probability of expanding their exports, as observed in the high export intensity. This implies that firm-level investment is a substantial component in the firm’s choice to export and may be another channel through which small firms can access export markets despite the presence of sunk entry costs that act as a barrier to entry. Third, we show that firms that invest above the industry average investment level stand the highest probability of entering the export market and expanding their export sales. Moreover, we also find that exporting experience significantly influences the firm’s choice to invest, probably as a measure of upgrading production technology. At the policy level, we observe that export subsidies should be directed at addressing capacity and technology related constraints as these have hampered export entry and export intensity among small firms.
Is Informality a Barrier to Economic Growth in Uganda? Empirical Analysis
(Development Studies Research, 2021) Esaku, Stephen
We apply autoregressive distributed lag modeling approach to investigate the short- and long-run relationship between economic growth and informality in Uganda. We use annual time series data, covering the period from 1991 to 2017. We find evidence of short- and long-run relationship between economic growth and informality. The results indicate that an increase in informality significantly reduces the rate of economic growth in both the long- and short-run. This evidence seems to indicate that in low income countries where informality is high, a large size of the shadow economy is correlated with low rates of economic growth. This arises from the fact that informal businesses rarely pay taxes for their operations leading to low revenue collection by governments, which affects the provision of essential social services. We argue that the results of a negative relationship between economic growth and informality in both the long- and short-run are possible given the income level of the country under investigation. The practical policy implication from these results is that tackling low rates of economic growth requires also addressing the key drivers of informality in the country.
Job Creation, Job Destruction and Reallocation in Sub-Saharan Africa: Firm-level Evidence from Kenyan Manufacturing Sector
(Cogent Economics & Finance, 2020) Esaku, Stephen
Is the poor aggregate employment growth of the manufacturing sector in Sub-Saharan African countries the outcome of inadequate job creation or rival forces of job creation and job destruction acting in opposite direction? Using a unique dataset from the Kenyan manufacturing sector, we examine this question using ordinary least squares method and feasible generalized least squares technique. We find simultaneous high rates of job creation and job destruction. In most cases, job creation in the manufacturing sector was not adequate to offset the rapid destruction of jobs. Second, we find that the presence of simultaneously high rates of job creation and job destruction cut across firm size and age. Third, we find that young firms account for almost all of the net job creation rates implying that the firm’s age is important in shaping its contribution to net job creation rates. Our findings have practical implications. First, job creation policies alone without policies that mitigate the destruction of jobs created might not be successful. For job creation to be successful in the manufacturing sector, effort should be made towards developing strategies that mitigate the destruction of jobs created. This is because job creation and destruction rates simultaneously follow each other. Second, to expand employment growth, effort should be dedicated to supporting young firms (6–10 years), through possibly, tax relief, providing technology of production or any possible government subsidy that can help these firms grow and survive in the turbulent business environment.
The Long- and Short-Run Relationship Between the Shadow Economy and Trade Openness in Uganda
(Cogent Economics & Finance, 2021) Esaku, Stephen
This paper examines the relationship between the shadow economy and trade openness in Uganda, using autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach. We find that the shadow economy and trade openness have a long- and short-run relationship. These results hold even when alternative econometric methods are used. The empirical evidence indicates that more exposure to foreign trade significantly reduces the size of the shadow economy. This could imply that as countries become more integrated into the world economy, firms and individual entrepreneurs are induced to engage in the formal sector so as to reap the benefits of international markets. This paper shows that trade openness is an important determinant of the shadow economy in both the short- and long-run. At the policy level, any policy framework that strengthens integration into the global economy will be an effective tool that can reduce shadow activities in both the short- and long-run. The practical implication of these results is that countries that have fully reformed their economies to allow for free trade and investment inflows experience a decline in shadow activities implying that, in more open economies, more trade reduces informality.
The Portrait of Uganda’s Informal Sector: What main Obstacles Do the Sector Face?
(Cogent Economics & Finance, 2020) Mugoda, Salmon; Esaku, Stephen; Nakimu, Rose Kibuka; Bbaale, Edward
In this paper, using primary data collected from business owners, we examine the nature and obstacles in the informal sector of Uganda. We find that education level matters in the selection of enterprises. The bulk of businesses, like eating kiosks, fish selling, shoe shining among others that require no specialized skill to operate were mainly run by primary school dropouts and those with no formal level of education. Furthermore, we find evidence of a strong entrepreneurial spirit among secondary school dropouts than at any other education level. Across all businesses surveyed, secondary school dropouts run a high number of informal enterprises. Evidence suggests that their motivation is driven by two key factors, namely, wanting to take advantage of an existing business opportunity and failure to find employment in the formal sector. The empirical results show that access to finance, crime, theft and disorder, electricity, water, taxes, burdensome inspections, and informal gifts are robust and significant obstacles to the operations of the informal sector in Uganda. Policies should focus on a regulatory framework that supports the sector to create secure livelihoods and generate employment opportunities for the unemployed rather than viewing the sector as a source of “illegality.” Improving access to finance, providing regular power and water supply, and improving the tax regime would mitigate the obstacles faced by informal businesses leading to possible formalization. Informal sector businesses should not be perceived as “illegal entities” but rather complementary effort by an increasingly enterprising population in the country.
The Short- and Long-Run Relationship between Trade Openness and Economic Growth in Uganda
(Cogent Economics & Finance, 2021) Esaku, Stephen
Using data covering the period from 1983 to 2019, we apply the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound testing approach to investigate whether trade openness has spurred economic growth in Uganda. The extant literature shows that trade openness increases economic growth, but this empirical evidence remains contested. Our empirical results on the long-run relationship reveal the existence of a positive and statistically significant relationship between trade openness and economic growth. Except for the use of exports to measure trade openness, using openness index and imports to proxy for trade openness indicates that an increase in the above indexes leads to increased economic growth in the long-run. In the short-run, however, more openness, exports and imports lead to increased economic growth. This implies that a significant proportion of economic growth in Uganda has been due to short-run increase in the country’s openness, more exports and imports. This paper confirms that using openness and imports indexes to proxy for trade yields more robust results compared to the use of export indices. At the policy level, these results show that encouraging more trade and imports that embody technology or intermediate inputs is essential in the production process could increase economic growth in the long-run. In the short-run, expanding the scope of exports and imports is important for economic growth.
Trade Liberalization and Productivity Growth: A Firm-level Analysis from Kenya
(SSRN, 2020) Esaku, Stephen
We analyze the impact of trade liberalization on firm productivity growth in Kenya’s manufacturing sector, using a panel spanning 8 years; 1992-1999. Our analysis reveals that liberalizing trade generates high productivity improvements in the manufacturing sector. We find that a one-unit reduction in import duties as a percentage of total imports significantly increases firm-level productivity in the manufacturing sector by 5.7%. When we examine this effect on the firm’s share of exported output, we find that lowering of import duties significantly increases the share of output exported by 0.7%. Further, we sought to assess how the effect of import duties varied across the different industries in our sample. Examining the effect of import duties on industrial performance, we find a negative and statistically significant relationship in some of the industries. Our results show heterogeneous effect of reduction of import duties on industrial performance. Not all industries benefited from the lowering of import duties, especially the food and bakery, and garment industry, where productivity did not increase. These findings have important policy implications for improving the manufacturing sector. Consequently, formulating policies that effectively relax restrictive barriers to trade in the economy could speed up firm-level productivity in the manufacturing sector.
Which Firms drive Employment Growth in Sub‑Saharan Africa? Evidence from Kenya
(Small Business Economics, 2022) Esaku, Stephen
Using firm-level data from Kenyan manufacturing firms, we evaluate the hotly debated and popular view that small firms create the most jobs and are the primary source of employment growth. Using the methods of ordinary least squares and feasible generalized least squares, findings reveal that the relationship between firm dynamics and employment growth varies systematically across firm size and age. The results show that, although large firms appear to drive employment growth, this growth is driven by very young firms (0–5 years) that are large rather than the size of the firm per se. Results indicate that it is age that matters since very young firms (0–5 years) contribute the highest rates of employment growth than any age category. At the policy level, addressing soaring unemployment in the Sub-Saharan Africa requires creating a business environment that supports the growth of very young firms.

Browsing by Author "Esaku, Stephen"

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