Browsing by Author "Danaei, Goodarz"

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    Cost-effectiveness analysis of integrating screening and treatment of selected non-communicable diseases into HIV/AIDS treatment in Uganda
    (Journal of the International AIDS Society, 2020) Sando, David; Kintu, Alexander; Okello, Samson; Kawungezi, Peter Chris; Guwatudde, David; Mutungi, Gerald; Muyindike, Winnie; Menzies, Nicolas A.; Danaei, Goodarz; Verguet, Stephane
    Despite growing enthusiasm for integrating treatment of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) into human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) care and treatment services in sub-Saharan Africa, there is little evidence on the potential health and financial consequences of such integration. We aim to study the cost-effectiveness of basic NCD-HIV integration in a Ugandan setting. Methods: We developed an epidemiologic-cost model to analyze, from the provider perspective, the cost-effectiveness of integrating hypertension, diabetes mellitus (DM) and high cholesterol screening and treatment for people living with HIV (PLWH) receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Uganda. We utilized cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimations drawing from the previously established Globorisk model and systematic reviews; HIV and NCD risk factor prevalence from the World Health Organization’s STEPwise approach to Surveillance survey and global databases; and cost data from national drug price lists, expert consultation and the literature. Averted CVD cases and corresponding disability-adjusted life years were estimated over 10 subsequent years along with incremental cost-effectiveness of the integration. Results: Integrating services for hypertension, DM, and high cholesterol among ART patients in Uganda was associated with a mean decrease of the 10-year risk of a CVD event: from 8.2 to 6.6% in older PLWH women (absolute risk reduction of 1.6%), and from 10.7 to 9.5% in older PLWH men (absolute risk reduction of 1.2%), respectively. Integration would yield estimated net costs between $1,400 and $3,250 per disability-adjusted life year averted among older ART patients. Conclusions: Providing services for hypertension, DM and high cholesterol for Ugandan ART patients would reduce the overall CVD risk among these patients; it would amount to about 2.4% of national HIV/AIDS expenditure, and would present a cost-effectiveness comparable to other standalone interventions to address NCDs in low- and middle-income country settings.
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    Integrating care for non-communicable diseases into routine HIV services: key considerations for policy design in sub-Saharan Africa
    (Journal of the International AIDS Society, 2020) Kintu, Alexander; Sando, David; Okello, Samson; Mutungi, Gerald; Guwatudde, David; Menzies, Nicolas A.; Danaei, Goodarz; Verguet, Stephane
    There is great interest for integrating care for non-communicable diseases (NCDs) into routine HIV services in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) due to the steady rise of the number of people who are ageing with HIV. Suggested health system approaches for intervening on these comorbidities have mostly been normative, with little actionable guidance on implementation, and on the practical, economic and ethical considerations of favouring people living with HIV (PLHIV) versus targeting the general population. We summarize opportunities and challenges related to leveraging HIV treatment platforms to address NCDs among PLHIV. We emphasize key considerations that can guide integrated care in SSA and point to possible interventions for implementation. Discussion: Integrating care offers an opportunity for effective delivery of NCD services to PLHIV, but may be viewed to unfairly ignore the larger number of NCD cases in the general population. Integration can also help maintain the substantial health and economic benefits that have been achieved by the global HIV/AIDS response. Implementing interventions for integrated care will require assessing the prevalence of common NCDs among PLHIV, which can be achieved via increased screening during routine HIV care. Successful integration will also necessitate earmarking funds for NCD interventions in national budgets. Conclusions: An expanded agenda for addressing HIV-NCD comorbidities in SSA may require adding selected NCDs to conditions that are routinely monitored in PLHIV. Attention should be given to mitigating potential tradeoffs in the quality of HIV services that may result from the extra responsibilities borne by HIV health workers. Integrated care will more likely be effective in the context of concurrent health system reforms that address NCDs in the general population, and with synergies with other HIV investments that have been used to strengthen health systems.
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    Quantifying the burden of cardiovascular diseases among people living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa: findings from a modeling study for Uganda
    (Journal of Global Health Reports, 2020) Kintu, Alexander; Sando, David; Guwatudde, David; Bahendeka, Silver; Kawungezi, Peter C.; Mutungi, Gerald; Muyindike, Winnie; Menzies, Nicolas; Okello, Samson; Danaei, Goodarz; Verguet, Stéphane
    The burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is rapidly increasing in low- and middle-income countries, but remains largely unknown among people living with HIV (PLWH) in most sub-Saharan African countries. Methods We estimated the proportion of PLWH in Uganda with raised blood pressure and high total cholesterol, and used a modified cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction model (Globorisk) to assess the 10-year risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease using individual-level data on cardiometabolic risk factors, population-level data on HIV prevalence and ART coverage, and the impact of HIV on blood pressure and cholesterol. Results Among PLWH aged 30 to 69 years, the prevalence of raised blood pressure was 30% (95% uncertainty range, UR=27-33%) in women and 26% in men (95% UR=23-29%). The predicted mean 10-year CVD risk was 5% for HIV-infected women, and 6% for HIV-infected men. Five percent (n=41,000) of PLWH may experience a CVD event from 2016 to 2025 with an estimated 38% of these events being fatal. Full ART coverage would have little effect on the predicted number of CVD cases. Conclusions Despite having a high prevalence of raised blood pressure, the burden of atherosclerotic CVD among PLWH in Uganda remains low. ART programs should prioritize routine screening and treatment of raised blood pressure. An approach of using HIV treatment delivery platforms to deliver care for NCDs may miss the larger burden of disease among HIV-uninfected individuals that are not routinely seen at health facilities.