Comprehensive Evaluation of the Universal Primary Education (UPE) Programme: Education Modelling and Forecasting

Abstract

Two decades of implementation of the Universal Primary Education Policy in Uganda, have been associated with notable achievements regarding increase in enrolment and investment in primary education by both the public and households. However, the policy has been marred by critical challenges including high dropout rates and lower completion rates that need addressing through evidence-based interventions deriving from rigorous statistical modelling and forecasting. is policy brief draws on the findings of the education modelling and forecasting thematic area of the independent comprehensive evaluation of the Universal Primary Education (UPE) Policy undertaken by the National Planning Authority. It presents the trend of progress made on key indicators during the UPE policy implementation, the main drivers of such progress, the interventions that have had the largest and most cost-effective impact on educational outputs, and the contribution of UPE to returns to education and overall household welfare. The findings show that (i) while 93% of primary school-age children are enrolled in school compared to 40% before introduction of UPE, there is limited achievement in completion of the primary cycle and acquisition of the defined competences (ii) whereas government has prioritized increasing school resource inputs as key drivers of progress, government aided primary schools remain technically inefficient in converting such inputs into outputs (iii) while there is higher return to primary education, this is dependent on the technical efficiency of primary schools. It is recommended that monitoring and evaluation of the inputs, processes and outcomes of the primary education system should be prioritized to improve the technical efficiency of especially government aided primary schools. Besides, more investment in UPE is required to deliver the intended results.